SMM Morning Review: LME aluminum should move within USD 1,950-1,980/mt on 7th June

The European Central Bank decided last night to keep interest rate unchanged at 0.5% now that recently released economic indicators in Europe have suggested the European economy is recovering from recession. Market focus remains on US non-farm payrolls due tonight. Initial jobless claims announced by the US Labor Department this Thursday were slightly higher than forecasts, though dropped some, adding to uncertainty in the country’s labor market. This means the US Federal Reserve may keep QE3 in place, sending the US dollar index down 1.8%. Dim economic prospects also weighted down base metals, though. LME aluminum was resilient to declines due to improvement in market fundamentals in China and softer US dollar. LME aluminum struggled at USD 1,958/mt during European session and finally closed at USD 1,962.8/mt, down a mere 0.08%. LME aluminum inventories increased 4,603 mt to 767,735 mt.

A weaker US dollar will push aluminum prices up slightly. LME aluminum should consolidate support at USD 1,950/mt and move within USD 1,950-1,980/mt on Friday. SHFE 1309 aluminum contract is expected to open at RMB 14,930/mt, with prices between RMB 14,900-14,980/mt. In spot market, traders will hold offers firm since today is the last trading day before the three-day holiday, with spot discount expected between RMB 0-20/mt and premium between RMB 0-20/mt over SHFE 1306 aluminum contract prices.