29 APRIL 2016Shanghai Metals Market
SHFE aluminium to lack upward momentum
Edited by : AL CIRCLE
2 min read
SHFE 1606 aluminium will struggle around the 5-day and 10-day moving averages and move at RMB 12,500-12,700/mt today, SMM said in an early morning forecast.
A softer UD dollar and rising crude oil will push LME aluminium up to USD 1,640-1,670/mt.
In China’s spot aluminium market, spot discounts of RMB 0-30/mt and spot premiums of RMB 0-10/mt are expected over SHFE 1605 aluminium contract.
Key macroeconomic indicators for base metal prices
Bases metals will maintain diverging trend on Friday with a big bag of economic figures coming under spotlight, including annualized Q1 GDP from euro zone and France, US annualized March price index for PCE, University of Michigan’s CCI and speeches of US Dallas Federal Reserve Chairman Kaplan.
Q1 GDP from euro zone may miss forecast as inflation in euro zone remains soft and manufacturing industry underperformed Q4 last year.
US Q1 annualized price index for PCE beat forecast but the annualized price index for PCE in March will likely fall short of forecast, which can be reflected by US March weaker-than-expected annualized CPI and unexpected drop in annualized PPI.
US March retail sales posted declines unexpectedly, boosting worries that US March consumption expenditure may underperform anticipation. However, US March individual income may not pick up markedly from February given limited growth in US March wages.
US Federal Reserve Chairman Kaplan, who holds dovish attitudes, believe that economic figures give no support to rate hike at present. Should the Chairman deliver such speeches again later, US dollar index will be depressed.
A softer UD dollar and rising crude oil will push LME aluminium up to USD 1,640-1,670/mt.
In China’s spot aluminium market, spot discounts of RMB 0-30/mt and spot premiums of RMB 0-10/mt are expected over SHFE 1605 aluminium contract.
Key macroeconomic indicators for base metal prices
Bases metals will maintain diverging trend on Friday with a big bag of economic figures coming under spotlight, including annualized Q1 GDP from euro zone and France, US annualized March price index for PCE, University of Michigan’s CCI and speeches of US Dallas Federal Reserve Chairman Kaplan.
Q1 GDP from euro zone may miss forecast as inflation in euro zone remains soft and manufacturing industry underperformed Q4 last year.
US Q1 annualized price index for PCE beat forecast but the annualized price index for PCE in March will likely fall short of forecast, which can be reflected by US March weaker-than-expected annualized CPI and unexpected drop in annualized PPI.
US March retail sales posted declines unexpectedly, boosting worries that US March consumption expenditure may underperform anticipation. However, US March individual income may not pick up markedly from February given limited growth in US March wages.
US Federal Reserve Chairman Kaplan, who holds dovish attitudes, believe that economic figures give no support to rate hike at present. Should the Chairman deliver such speeches again later, US dollar index will be depressed.
Unlock full access – sign up for FREE.
Key benefits
Find exclusive data-driven insights and in-depth analysis
Get our daily newsletter delivered straight to your inbox
Access real-time and historical price trends from global indices
Post and respond to latest business leads
Stay ahead with alerts on learning tools
...and so much more!SIGN UP / LOGIN
Previous article
Century reports Q1 2016 financial results: Sales decline but liquidity improves
Next articleChalco turns in second straight profitable quarter
Grow with
AL Circle
