‘September peak season’ leads to production and demand growth for aluminium billet, but current inventory level hints at near-term muteness

The traditional "September peak season" revitalised demand for China's primary aluminium billets and boosted their operating performance, leading to a new high production volume for the year and historically. Despite fewer operating days in September compared to August, the domestic primary aluminium billet production increased, driven by the resumption of previously closed production facilities and the commencement of new projects, especially in Xinjiang.

According to the Shanghai Metals Market survey, the daily average output of China's primary aluminium billets in September 2024 grew by 2,000 tonnes month-on-month to around 51,000 tonnes per day, bringing the total monthly production to 1.528 million tonnes, up by 15,000 tonnes from August (31 days), utilising 31.205 million tonnes of capacity at 169 enterprises. The domestic operating rate was 58.8 per cent, which was also M-o-M higher by about 0.6 per cent.

With increased production, the supply of domestic billets also rose by 28,000 tonnes in September, primarily contributed by the Xinjiang region as the backlog situation eased in the province with the improvement of insufficient transportation capacity. In Xinjiang, Shanxi, and Chongqing, primary aluminium billet production grew by over 10 per cent M-o-M, while that in other provinces increased by less than 5 per cent. Expansion in demand owing to speedy restocking in anticipation of price hike propelled increased operations in September.