PV Frame operating rates steady, expectations weakening; aluminium ingot destocking accelerates, aluminium price centre moves up

PV aluminium extrusion: The PV aluminium frame sector operated steadily overall this week. Sample enterprises maintained stable operating rates, and industry leaders kept capacity at relatively high utilisation levels. Among them, a frame enterprise in the Hebei region reported that it will maintain full production in September.

From the downstream supporting side, PV module prices have continued to rise recently, squeezing profit margins for end-user projects and dragging down downstream purchasing and stockpiling willingness. According to an SMM survey, domestic module enterprises' scheduled production in September is expected to pull back by approximately 1.7 GW M-o-M from August.

End-user module output is weakening marginally, and the pullback in downstream module scheduled production will gradually transmit to the auxiliary material segment, weakening demand for frame supporting products. Overall, the operating rates of PV frame enterprises are expected to consolidate on a subdued note going forward.

Raw material prices: During the period (August 31-September 3, 2026), the SMM A00 weekly average price stood at RMB 24,127.5 per tonne, up 1.2 per cent from the previous week's average. Overall, macro tightening expectations have been digested, and low inventory along with accelerating destocking formed a floor and dominated pricing this week.

However, risks remain from insufficient peak-season demand realisation and the transmission of aluminium billet inventory buildup to ingot, while overseas supply continues to recover, limiting upside room for aluminium prices. Aluminium prices are expected to consolidate on a strong note in the short term.

Next week, the most-traded SHFE aluminium contract is expected to trade in the range of RMB 23,800-24,700 per tonne, and LME aluminium at USD 3,230-3,360 per tonne. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the September 15-16 interest rate meeting, the pace of destocking, and the strength of peak-season order realisation.

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.