As the global aluminium supply chain continues to swing between shifts and crunches, how has Europe fared on the production front in the 2026 year-to-date calendar? Substantially well, going by the output figures. Between January and September 2026, the European continent, including Russia, has produced a total of 5.56 million tonnes of primary aluminium, building a significant year-on-year growth chart. The nine-month growth chart Set against the same period of 2025, the first nine months of 2026 show a clear lift in output. From January to September 2026, Europe, including Russia, produced 5.56 million tonnes of primary aluminium, raising the annual growth rate by 5.69 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) over the 5.26 million tonnes produced in 2025. Explore the production, demand and...
The proposed $4 billion Oklahoma Primary Aluminum (OPA) smelter, a joint venture between Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) and Century Aluminum, is targeting civil works in the second quarter of 2027, with first hot metal expected between mid- and late 2030. Realization of the 750,000-metric-ton project would render it the first new US primary aluminum smelter in nearly 50 years. However, local restrictions, environmental permitting and ongoing legal hurdles clouded its path towards maintaining the construction timeline. A local moratorium and an April 7 ballot sit on the same calendar. Explore the production, demand and consumption forecasts of bauxite and alumina in our report: “ Global Bauxite & Alumina Market Forecast to 2036: Supply–Demand, Trade Flows & Price Outlook ” A...
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Aluminium futures remain under pressure, trading below USD 2,400 per tonne and holding near their eight-month low of USD 2,340 hit on April 9. The slump is an after-effect induced by escalating US-China trade tensions that have cast a shadow over global manufacturing. Following tit-for-tat tariff hikes where China imposed 125 per cent duties and blacklisted more US firms, and the US retaliating with 245 per cent levies and fresh threats, investor confidence has taken a hit. The trade war fallout has overshadowed supply concerns in the US, where existing tariffs are already straining domestic capacity. In China, output is nearing its 45-million-tonne cap, set to curb emissions, but slowing production hasn't been enough to lift prices as demand fears dominate the market. A couple of days...
North America (US and Canada), which is currently embroiled in the ongoing trade war, is otherwise a key aluminium market, with demand consistently reaching millions of pounds annually, primarily driven by semi-fabricated and mill product. Although the demand decreased in 2023 to 26,087 million pounds (11.83 million tonnes), it rebounded the next year to 26,969 million pounds (12.24 million tonnes), marking an annual growth of 3.4 per cent. The rise in demand was also evident in aluminium shipments, which increased in 2024 by 3.2 per cent Y-o-Y from 22,987 million pounds to 23,729 million pounds. According to the Aluminum Association’s report, the demand for aluminium semi-fabricated and mill product rose by 3.4 per cent, led by key sectors like automotive, packaging, and sustainable...
Alcoa Corporation delivered a robust financial performance in the first quarter of 2025, marking a sharp turnaround from the prior year and a solid improvement over the previous quarter. Net income more than doubled sequentially, driven by higher aluminium prices, effective cost management, and strategic operational decisions. Despite slight revenue contraction and new US tariffs on Canadian aluminium, Alcoa’s performance reflected operational resilience and smart capital moves. Alcoa posted a net income of USD 548 million (USD 2.07 per share) in Q1 2025, up 171 per cent from USD 202 million in Q4 2024 and a stark reversal from the USD 252 million loss in Q1 2024. Adjusted net income reached USD 568 million (USD 2.15 per share), showing a 106 per cent increase from the prior quarter....
In a bold move that has reignited trade tensions, former US President Donald Trump has imposed sweeping tariffs of up to 245 per cent on a wide range of Chinese imports. With the initial 25 per cent remaining in place, the total tariff to be paid by the aluminium and steel exporters from China shoots up to 270 per cent. This sharp escalation is nothing but a further intensification of the US-China trade war and is already sending ripples through global markets, manufacturing, and supply chains, with implications that extend well beyond the Pacific. Image for representational purposes only The decision, formalised through a White House fact sheet, targets critical Chinese exports, including those linked to high-tech industries. Among the materials affected are gallium, germanium, and...
Canada’s manufacturing sector posted modest overall growth in February, but the aluminium and alumina industry carried the weight. According to Statistics Canada, total manufacturing sales rose by 0.2 per cent to CAD 72.9 billion, the sector’s highest level since September 2023. The increase was almost entirely driven by a sharp rise in primary metal sales, which grew by 8.3 per cent to reach a record CAD 6.9 billion. The main driver is the strong domestic and international demand for Canadian aluminium and alumina. Industry data shows that non-ferrous metals, particularly aluminium products, saw notable gains in both volume and value. Canadian producers benefitted from increased orders across key export markets, including the United States, Japan, and South Korea. In the United States,...
On Monday, April 14, Goldman Sachs revised its aluminium price forecast for 2025, adopting a bearish outlook due to the impact of newly imposed US tariffs on aluminium and auto parts imports. The investment bank now expects aluminium prices to average $2,000 per tonne in the third quarter of 2025 — a significant downgrade from its previous forecast issued just six months ago . While prices are anticipated to rebound slightly by December to $2,300 per tonne, this figure still falls short of the earlier projection of $2,650. At the time of the forecast release on Monday, aluminium was trading at approximately $2,392 per tonne on the London Metals Exchange (LME) as of 1300 GMT. In addition to revising aluminium price outlook, Goldman Sachs also shifted its global market forecast, now...
China Hongqiao Group Limited, the world’s second-largest primary aluminium producer, has received a credit rating upgrade from S&P Global Ratings, moving from ‘BB-’ to ‘BB’ with a stable outlook. The upgrade is a ripple effect of the company’s improved financial condition, characterised by strong cash flow and reduced debt levels, despite a significant reliance on short-term debt. Image Source: Wikipedia The optimistic upgrade is stimulated by vigorous demand for aluminium, driven by China’s energy transition initiatives. The company’s debt-to-EBITDA ratio is projected to remain between 0.9x and 1x until 2026, indicating healthy leverage levels. However, approximately 60 per cent of China Hongqiao’s debt is short-term, posing potential liquidity risks. Effective management of this debt...
When Romanian aluminium producer Alro sounds the alarm, it’s not just about Romania. It’s a signal to the entire European industrial complex: brace for a flood of cheap Chinese aluminium — and brace fast. Image source: Taihe Institute In a pointed public statement, Alro Chairman of the Board of Directors, Marian Năstase, warned of an imminent danger from Chinese aluminium imports priced below the cost of production. His message? Europe is sleepwalking into industrial decline while China quietly eats its lunch. “The [trade war] affects us, most of all, not necessarily because we cannot sell more on the American market, but because we will be invaded by goods from Asia, mainly Indonesia and China, which will come and suffocate the European market, no longer being able to go to the United...
India has recently turned to the World Trade Organization, requesting consultations with the United States over tariffs imposed on aluminium and steel imports by the Trump administration in 2025. As a valuable trade partner of the United States, exporting between 100,000-200,000 tonnes of aluminium and aluminium products in a year had earlier also sought consultations with the US to discuss tariffs, back in 2018 when the US government first imposed 25 per cent tariff on steel and 10 per cent on aluminium, justifying the move as necessary for protecting its domestic industry under national security grounds. Seven years later, in February 2025, the US reaffirmed the flat 25 per cent tariffs on India's both aluminium and steel exports for an indefinite timeline. In response, India once again...
Vedanta Aluminium faces a severe environmental fine of INR 71.16 (USD 8.52 million) crore for a suspected breach of fly ash disposal regulation, as issued by the Odisha State Pollution Control Board on April 10, 2025. However, Vedanta Aluminium is repudiating the allegation and is on the way to taking legal action for the same. Image source: Eco Material Technologies What is fly ash? When pulverised coal is burned in a power plant to generate electricity, it creates a hazardous byproduct known as fly ash. In its true nature, fly ash has no benefits, but the byproduct consisting of aluminous and siliceous components is used to extract and produce aluminium-fly ash composites. Although it has no direct use in aluminium smelters, it can serve as a good source of alumina and can be...
The latest shot fired in the ongoing US-China economic standoff could have far-reaching implications for the global aluminium industry. Speaking in no uncertain terms, Scott Bessent, an economic advisor to former President Donald Trump, stated that “all options are on the table,” including the delisting of Chinese companies from American stock exchanges. While the statement is loaded with geopolitical overtones, its economic reverberations are particularly significant for the global commodities market — aluminium being one of the most affected. Image for referential purposes only and does not depict original scenario (source: https://www.smallcase.com/) This development comes at a time when global markets are already battling fragile supply chains, and it could become a turning point for...
National Aluminium Company (NALCO) has taken a serious beating on the bourses this week, tumbling to a fresh 52-week low of INR 142.05 (USD 1.70). That marks an overwhelming 22.71 per cent nosedive over the last nine straight sessions, with the stock opening Wednesday with a dramatic 9.92 per cent gap down. It’s not just NALCO feeling the heat, the entire aluminium and metals sector is under siege. NALCO has underperformed its peers by 1.77 per cent, and technical indicators paint a grim picture: the stock is trading below its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, to be noted as a classic bearish territory. Despite the market drama, NALCO isn’t all doom and gloom under the hood. The company boasts rock-solid fundamentals, from a low debt-to-equity ratio to a stellar...
Following the successful launch of "Global Aluminium Industry 2025" in January 2025, AL Circle is proud to unveil the Lite Versions of the report—specially designed to offer sector-specific insights for professionals and businesses seeking targeted intelligence across the aluminium value chain. Available in four distinct formats, the Lite Versions provide deep dives into the following segments: Bauxite | Alumina Click here for TOC Bauxite | Alumina | Primary Aluminium (Upstream Sector) Click here for TOC Primary Aluminium | Recycled Aluminium Click here for TOC Downstream (Downstream – End User – Recycled) Click here for TOC These versions are crafted for ease of access, focused analysis, and sector-specific decision-making, empowering industry stakeholders with relevant data, market...
South Africa’s aluminium industry has breathed a communal sigh of relief following the announcement that aluminium will be exempt from the sweeping 30 per cent reciprocal tariffs unveiled by US President Donald Trump. The relief stems from a strategic carve-out for “critical minerals,” under which aluminium is classified, ensuring continued access to a vital export market for South African producers. On April 2, President Trump signed an executive order imposing reciprocal tariffs starting at 10 per cent on imports from most trading partners, with rates escalating to as much as 49 per cent for specific countries. However, Section 3(b) of the order explicitly exempts “certain critical minerals”, including aluminium, reflecting the administration’s recognition of America’s dependence on...
As recently shared by Aluminium Corporation of China, popularly known as Chalco (HKG:2600, SHA: 601600), in the first quarter of 2025, the multinational aluminium production company expects a lucrative profit between RMB 3.4 billion (USD 476 million) and RMB 3.6 billion (USD 504 million). This announcement reflects an increase of 53 per cent to 63 per cent remunerative growth if compared with the previous year. Image source: Companies History Chalco is a state-owned multinational aluminium company with its headquarters in Beijing, China. It solely focuses on the production and distribution of aluminium products. The company's shares are listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and Shanghai Stock Exchange as publicly traded companies. With the Q1 2025 financial prediction, Chalco is...
China’s ‘blow-for-blow’ strategy in response to the United States' 34 per cent reciprocal duty apparently leads to the addition of another round of tariff to the existing thread. On Tuesday, April 8, the US government threatened to impose an additional 50 per cent tariff on all Chinese products in retaliation, bringing the total tariff on China to 104 per cent. But this figure is not the full story. When accounting for the 25 per cent tariff on aluminium and steel imports that the United States imposed in March, the total tariff on China rises to a staggering 129 per cent. Image generated by AI for representational purpose The latest threat of a 50 per cent tariff is scheduled to take effect at midnight (CST time zone) on April 9, 2025, which was set as a deadline for China to reverse its...
The European Union (EU) received a suggestion on Monday from the Italian foreign minister Antonio Tajani that the supranational political and economic union of 27 members might want to contemplate delaying counter-tariffs announcement on US imports of aluminium and steel, which are to come into effect on April 9. Image source: https://multimedia.europarl.europa.eu/ “We could think about postponing them to April 30, but we certainly don’t oppose them,” Tajani said, adding, “We will support EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovi; this is clear. Let’s see if we can postpone them by a few weeks to have more time for dialogue.” Tajani’s statements came to the public post the Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni's and other distinguished members of the Italian government's warning caught attention...
Aluminium giants, among other metal businesses in India, reportedly plan to expand rapidly and vigorously to support domestic demand. The transformation in business strategy for these metal producers comes as two major factors weigh in — the US tariff creating international price volatility and India’s domestic market touching the demand sky. Aluminium and steel companies alike face the headwind of a 25 per cent tariff imposed on all aluminium and steel imports to the US. Producers like Vedanta, Nalco, and Hindalco are thus tallying a reroute through trade in the domestic market, eyeing the scope of withholding any potential business deterioration. Key players like Vedanta, NALCO, and Hindalco are realigning their trade priorities to cushion any fallout from the tariff-led international...
