LME aluminium prices eased on September 28 after rising in the previous session, with cash and forward contracts moving lower. The Asian Reference Price also declined, while a sharp rise in cancelled warrants pushed live warrants lower. The cash bid slipped 0.15 per cent to USD 3,248 per tonne from USD 3,253 per tonne , while the cash offer fell 0.17 per cent to USD 3,248.50 per tonne from USD 3,254 per tonne. Three-month aluminium prices followed the weaker trend. The bid dropped 0.41 per cent to USD 3,251.50 per tonne from USD 3,265 per tonne, while the offer was down 0.46 per cent to USD 3,252 per tonne compared with USD 3,267 per tonne. Explore the production, demand and consumption forecasts of bauxite and alumina in our report: " Global Bauxite & Alumina Market Forecast to 2036:...
Futures: The most-traded SHFE aluminium contract opened at RMB 24,000 per tonne in the night session on September 28, reached a high of RMB 24,055 per tonne and a low of RMB 23,950 per tonne, and closed at RMB 24,000 per tonne, up RMB 50 per tonne or 0.21 per cent from the previous close. Futures stabilised after a sharp decline, with prices falling below the 5/10/20/40/60 moving averages across all timeframes, turning these averages from support into resistance. Trading volume during the session was 53,872 lots, with open interest at 271,000 lots, down 3,240 lots, driven mainly by bear position reductions. On the technical front, the 4-hour MACD death cross continued, with DIFF trading well below DEA and green bars expanding significantly, indicating strong short-term bearish momentum....
Grow with
AL Circle
SHFE 1608 aluminium will continue trading in a tight range of RMB 11,860-11,990/mt today on strong market caution. The US dollar will gain favor before referendum on UK exit from the EU. Japan’s trade data for May might be worse than expected. LME aluminium will move at USD 1,605-1,625/mt. In China’s spot aluminium market, spot premiums of RMB 80-120/mt are expected over SHFE 1607 aluminium contract.
LME aluminium may break a resistance at $1,624 per tonne and gain further to the next resistance at $1,648, driven by a wave C. This is third wave of a three-wave cycle from the November 23, 2015 low of $1,432.50. A Fibonacci projection analysis on the target of this wave reveals two resistances at $1,624 and $1,648, respectively provided by the 86.4 percent and the 100 percent levels. Support is at $1,607, the 76.4 percent level, a break below which could cause a loss to the 61.8 percent level at $1,582. Use EIKON news "Alerts" to be notified of this report and get it sent to your email box when it is published. Wang Tao is a Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals. The views expressed are his own. No information in this analysis should be considered as being...
Base metal prices are expected to rise at first, and then drop this week, Shanghai Metals Market foresees. “A series of risky events will be released later this week, and risk aversion sentiment will grow as the week progresses,” SMM says. Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Base Metal Prices: Aluminium: 11,860-11,990 yuan per tonne Manufacturing PMIs from western economies for May will come under the spotlight this week. “Black swan” events may occur, including semiannual financial report by US Fed head Janet Yellen and referendum on UK exit from the EU, which will intensify risk aversion. France might be the drag on euro zone’s manufacturing PMI. Manufacturing sector in Italy and Spain, however, has been positive after austerity measures. US building starts and home sales have been largely...
SHFE 1608 aluminium will trade in a tight range of RMB 11,850-12,000/mt today on strong market caution. The US dollar will gain favor before referendum on UK exit from the EU. LME aluminium will face downward pressure and move at USD 1,600-1,625/mt. In China’s spot aluminium market, spot premiums of RMB 70-110/mt are expected over SHFE 1607 aluminium contract.
While London Metal Exchange warehouse queues have all but disappeared the even better news is physical delivery premiums have dropped back closer to historically lower levels and more importantly taken on a flat, stable pattern. As analysts point out, the reasons for the unusual spike in physical delivery premiums last year were always contentious and, in reality, multiple in origin but arguably long load-out queues played a part, although we always maintained they were as much symptom as cause of a deeper malaise in the physical aluminium market. Premiums Easing Still, the return to a steady $170-180 per ton level for the Midwest premium and a stable range of $90-120 per metric ton range for Japanese Port premiums is a welcome relief for consumers after the sky high levels of 2014-15...
Aluminium hit its highest level in nearly six weeks on Wednesday and copper also jumped as the dollar dipped and investors bought more risky assets ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting. All the metals on the London Metal Exchange were swept higher, also getting a boost as some speculators closed out bearish positions. Three-month LME aluminium closed 1 percent higher at $1,626 a tonne, the strongest since May 5, building on gains of 0.6 percent on Tuesday, June 14. LME data showed one entity held 40-50 percent of short-term aluminium futures. "The base metals markets seem to be playing along to the tune of risk-on today with equity markets firmer today as well," said Daniel Briesemann at Commerzbank in Frankfurt. European shares rose as expectations of dovish words from the U.S. Federal...
Gayatri Projects is seeking to offer mining services for underground coal mines of Coal India Ltd and other companies. The Hyderabad-based diversified infrastructure company, which is into construction, infrastructure and power segments, has entered into a partnership with China Coal Overseas Development Company, a Beijing-based subsidiary of China Coal, to offer Longwall technology for mining. With the government setting a target of 1 billion tonnes per annum coal extraction by Coal India, which includes significant contribution from underground mines, there is an opportunity out there for services providers, a company official said. The proposed capacity addition includes about 100 mtpa of underground mining. The company has managed to bag two projects, thus far, and is gearing up to...
Aluminium stocks held at three major Japanese ports climbed for the first time in nine months in May due to an increase in imports and softer demand at home. The increase comes as global aluminium producers and Japanese buyers negotiate premiums for July-September primary metal shipments. Japan is Asia's biggest importer of aluminium and the premiums it agrees to pay each quarter over the London Metal Exchange (LME) cash price set the benchmark for regional primary metal shipments. "The rise in inventories may be due to higher imports after Japanese trading houses trimmed purchases of the metal in the January-March quarter," a source at a trading house said on Thursday. "Slower demand from the manufacturing sector such as automobile makers in the Golden Week long public holiday in early...
During night trading on Tuesday, June 14, SHFE 1608 aluminum dipped to RMB 11,765/mt after opening at RMB 11,850/mt, and ended at RMB 11,780/mt. On Wednesday, June 15, SHFE 1608 aluminum rose to RMB 11,880/mt after opening at RMB 11,780/mt. The most active contract ended the day down RMB 40/mt at RMB 11,870/mt. Trading volumes were down 137,000 lots to 118,516 lots, and positions were up 1,360 to 208,330. Strong caution before referendum on UK exit from the EU and US policy meeting will leave SHFE aluminum hovering without direction. Today i.e. June 16, is delivery date for SHFE 1605 aluminum, whose settlement price was RMB 12,230/mt. Delivery amount for the contract was 33,950 mt. In another report SMM observed, since the US dollar softened after the US Fed announced not to lift interest...
According to sources with knowledge of the events, six of the People’s Republic of China’s major smelters agreed to cut production in the event that aluminium prices drop below US$1,717 per metric ton. China’s Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA) held the meeting yesterday with several of the major players in the domestic aluminium industry to debate measures the industry could take to help stabilize prices of the commodity. According to CNIA’s reporting arm Antaike, Aluminum Corp of China (Chalco), State Power Investment Corp, Hongqiao Group, Jiugang Group, Yunnan Aluminium, and Jinjiang Group were all reported to have sent representatives to the meeting. Although no formal announcements came as a result of the agreement, the referenced sources indicated that all six smelters...
Chinese primary aluminium production down by 2 per cent month-on-month to 2.569 million metric ton during April this year, as compared to 2.620 million metric ton in March, as per the latest figures released by the International Aluminium Institute. According to IAI, global primary aluminium production down by 2.6 per cent month-on-month to 4.721 million metric ton during April this year, as compared to 4.847 million metric ton in March. In rest of Asia, the production was 264 million tons. East and Central Europe accounted for 327 million tons, West Europe for 311 million tons, North America for 329 million tons, South America for 112 million tons, Africa for 136 million tons, Oceania for 162 million tons and Gulf Cooperation Council countries for 421 million tons. Primary aluminium is...
Bankrupt aluminium producer Noranda is seeking bankruptcy court approval to sell off its so-called upstream business, including its now shuttered smelter in New Madrid, Missouri. Tennessee-based Noranda Aluminum Holding Corp. said Monday it had filed a request in bankruptcy court for approval for bidding procedures to sell "all, or substantially all" the assets of its primary aluminium business. In addition to the smelter in southeast Missouri, that business includes a bauxite mine in St. Ann, Jamaica, and a refinery in Gramercy, Louisiana. The company said it expects its motion to be heard July 14 by the bankruptcy court. Under its proposed bidding procedures, the deadline for submitting qualified bids is Sept. 15, with an auction set for Sept. 22, if there are multiple bids submitted. A...
The base metals were for the most part firmer on Tuesday, June 14, with aluminium closing up 1.6 percent at $1,599.50. In Shanghai, the base metals are for the most part little changed. Equities remain on a back footing as the market gets more cautious ahead of the Brexit vote, the Euro Stoxx 50 was down two percent yesterday and the Dow closed off 0.7 percent. In Asia, the Nikkei is down 1.1 percent, the Hang Seng is off 0.1 percent, the ASX 200 is down 1.9 percent, the Kospi is down 0.4 percent, but the CSI 300 is up 0.1 percent. In FX, the dollar index is last at 94.44 and seems to be consolidating recent gyrations, the euro is at 1.1288, sterling is weak at 1.4182, the yen is extremely strong at 105.91, the high in May was 105.54 and the aussie is edging higher at 0.7402. The yuan...
Japan’s spot aluminium premiums are steady at $80-$90/mt in thin trading. Platts assessed spot aluminium premiums for imports into Japan at $80-$90/mt plus LME cash CIF Japan Monday, unchanged from May 30 in thin trading against the backdrop of third-quarter contract premium negotiations. An international trader said he has indicated an interest to sell at $80/mt plus LME cash CIF Japan over a week earlier, but prospective buyers have not responded. One Japanese trader said he was interested. A Japanese consumer added that he was approached by several traders if he would be interested in metal sourced from international traders and financial institutions at $80-$90/mt plus LME cash CIF Japan. He declined the offers. “This is not the time to buy. We already bought some spot material...
Since recording a multi-year low at INR 93 per kg in October 2015, the aluminium futures contract traded on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) has been on an intermediate-term uptrend. However, the key resistance at INR 111 which is also 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement level of the prior downtrend, limited the contract’s rally in late February and again in late April this year. Subsequent decline found support at INR 103 in early May and began to move up. On Monday, Jue 13, the contract gained 2 per cent breaking an immediate resistance at INR 106 to settle at INR 107.3. In addition, this rally has breached the contract’s 21 and 50-day moving averages and trade well above them. On Tuesday, June 14, the contract was up by 0.3 to trade at INR 107.7. This recent breakthrough gives traders...
On a recent investor day at Meridian Energy, the Government-controlled company said it expected ongoing talks with New Zealand Aluminium Smelters, which operates the Tiwai Point smelter. NZAS' financial performance was in line with Meridian expectations and Meridian believed NZAS was cashflow positive at current aluminum prices. But NZAS was facing an electricity price increase on January 1, 2017 and Meridian expected NZAS to try to renegotiate. "Should NZAS decide to close, Meridian has undertaken preliminary work with market participants to quickly formulate contracting arrangements. That said, Meridian maintained its view NZAS was likely to stay around, which is consistent with our view,'' Ms Howe said. The biggest issue facing the electricity sector was the long-term future of the...
Worrying signs have arisen for aluminum prices, which have retreated from this year’s high of 13,000 yuan/tonne to below 12,000 yuan/tonne, SMM says. China’s aluminium output hit 2.68 million tonnes in May, the highest since November 2015, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed. About 500,000-tpy idled aluminium capacity was brought back online in the first half of this year, SMM statistics showed. SMM estimates some another 400,000-500,000-tpy aluminium capacity to be restarted in June and July. Aluminium stocks in China’s five major markets had fallen all the way from this year’s high seen in the week ending March 4. However, stocks reversed declines in the week ending June 13 by growing 19,000 tonnes from June 8. Although it is still early to say whether the change...
SMM surveyed 44 Chinese aluminium smelters about their opinions over aluminium price outlook. About 45 per cent of them expect SHFE 1608 aluminium to fall below RMB 11,800/mt and LME aluminium below USD 1,560/mt. First, the price spread between SHFE 1606 and 1607 aluminium contracts is as big as RMB 200/mt before upcoming delivery of the former. This left suppliers eager to sell, but trading was poor, especially in south China, where trading was contributed mainly by traders. Second, downstream producers mostly watched from the sidelines, with low buying interest, due to falling orders. Third, aluminium stocks in China’s five major markets grew nearly 20,000 mt as of June 13 compared with June 8. Ongoing capacity restarts will likely allow stocks to continue growing. Fourth, growing...
