1. Macro perspective The US-Iran conflict entered its second week. After the escort coalition intervened, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz partially recovered, but war risk insurance rates remained elevated. Brent crude pulled back from a high of USD 101 to consolidate around USD 95, with energy cost support weakening from earlier levels but not yet fading. The US Fed delivered a 25bp rate hike at its September FOMC meeting, and the dot plot indicated one more hike may still occur this year. Chair Warsh struck a hawkish tone in his post-meeting remarks, and the US dollar index held at a 13-month high. Next week, attention turns to China's official PMI on September 30, as well as US PCE and non-farm payrolls data during the National Day holiday—with China's market closed for seven days...
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China (GACC), China's total primary aluminium imports reached 185,500 tonnes in August 2026, down 14.65 per cent year-on-year but up 0.16 per cent month-on-month. Total imports for January-August amounted to 1.66 million tonnes, a decrease of 3.41 per cent year-on-year. The 14.65 per cent year-on-year decline in August imports, coupled with a nearly flat month-on-month performance, indicates that imports have not collapsed but rather maintained a steady inflow. In August, China's total primary aluminium exports stood at 21,900 tonnes, down 14.53 per cent year-on-year and 30.48 per cent month-on-month. Cumulative exports for January-August totalled 167,500 tonnes, up 9.26 per cent year-on-year....
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A global aluminium producer has offered Japanese buyers a premium of $159 per tonne for primary metal shipments for the July-September quarter, up 23 percent from the current quarter, four sources directly involved in pricing talks said on Tuesday. Another producer has sought a premium of $160 a tonne, up 24 percent from the premium PREM-ALUM-JP of $129 agreed for the April-June quarter, the sources said. Japan is Asia’s biggest aluminium importer and the premiums for primary metal shipments it agrees to pay each quarter over the London Metal Exchange (LME) cash price set the benchmark for the region.
The two top aluminium producers Vedanta Ltd. and National Aluminium Company Ltd. (Nalco) are wary about the rise in production costs, even after posting robust earnings from aluminium business in the financial year 2017 ended on 31 st of March, 2018. Vedanta’s cost of aluminium production escalated to US$ 1887 per tonne, which was higher by about 30 per cent from the previous fiscal due to input commodity inflation. However, for the current fiscal, the company has projected to bring down the cost in the range of US$ 1725 to US$ 1775 per tonne, assuming the costs of imported alumina, coal e-auctions and carbon to remain at the average price levels of 2017-18. Each year, Vedanta imports over 1 million tonnes of alumina to power its aluminium smelters. To ward off the sharp price...
The US dollar index touched a five-month high last night at nearly 94.5 before it closed 0.18% higher at 94.41, on US-North Korea discussions and a weakening euro. Trading was off in LME on May 28 on the occasion of Late May Bank Holiday. LME aluminium was depressed by a rising US dollar index on Friday May 25 and the LME official settlement priceclosed last week with US$2282 per tonne from US$ 2270 per tonne on previous closing. The contract tumbled to a low of US$2,248 per tonne overnight. LME aluminium is expected to trade rangebound today at US$2,260-3,000 per tonne. SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange dropped to US$ 2285 per tonne on May 29 from US$ 2301 per tonne on May 28. The SHFE 1807 contract initially hit a high of RMB...
Alcoa Corporation said on Tuesday, May 29, that the company has shut down one of the three potlines that are part of its Warrick aluminium smelter restart due to a temporary power outage at the plant near Evansville, Indiana. The annual capacity of the affected potline is approximately 50,000 tonnes. “The decision was made with a focus on safety and to protect the assets,” the company said. “Alcoa is assessing the effects of this event, including the timing of the overall restart, and will provide an update as more information is available.” Last July, Alcoa announced plans to restart three of five potlines, with 161,400 tonnes of annual capacity, at its Warrick Operations aluminium smelter. The process to restart is originally expected to be completed in the second quarter of this year....
According to CEO Tim Murray, Alba would be achieving the aluminium production capacity of 1.5 million tonnes or 25 per cent of total output across the GCC, on completing Line 6 Expansion Project worth US$3billion. In an interview with Oxford Business Group’s online broadcasting channel, Global Platform, Murray said that this new line will not only make Alba the biggest single-site facility in the world but also take the GCC’s total aluminium production to around 6 million tonnes a year, roughly equal to 10 per cent of global aluminium production. In the interview, he also noted that the world consumes around 60 million tonnes of aluminium, while China alone consumes 35 million tonnes. So, considering the production footprint, the GCC stands as the next biggest market, with six million...
Indonesia's state-owned aluminium producer PT Indonesia Asahan Aluminium (Inalum) has produced 215,192 tonnes and 3,625 tonnes of aluminium ingots and billet and alloy respectively in 2017, according to news reported by ANTARA news. The company has produced 73,315 tonnes of aluminium ingots and 5,372 tons of billet and alloy in the first four months of 2018. The company has registered a net profit of Rp1.5 trillion in 2017."Of course, it is quite encouraging. We hope it will increase in the future," said Oggy Achmad Kosasih, PT Inalum Business Development Director. In 2017, the company’s aluminium ingot sale reached 205,980 tonnes and billet and alloy sale reached 1,296 tonnes.During January-April 2018, aluminium ingot sale stood at 58,661 tonnes and billet and alloy sale stood at 3,706...
National Aluminium Company Ltd (NALCO) has proved its mettle by registering high in terms of both physical and financial performances in the financial year 2017-18. The company has registered net profit of INR 1342 crore against INR 669 crore in previous year. In the fourth quarter, the company has earned a net profit of INR 257.06 crore. The net sales turnover for the year stood at INR 9,377 crore, registering a growth of 26% year-on-year, the highest ever since inception. Export earning of INR 4,076 crore also highest ever since inception registering a growth of 12% YoY. Panchpatmali Bauxite mines has been rated as the 2nd lowest cost producer in the World in 2017 as per report of Wood Mackenzie, according to company’s press release. The bauxite mines (North-Central block of...
The US dollar index touched a high of 94.3 last Friday and closed 0.62% higher at 94.24 due to robust US manufacturing data and weakened euro. LME aluminium was depressed by a rising US dollar index on Friday May 25 and closed the week with US$2282 per tonne from US$ 2270 per tonne on previous closing. The contract tumbled to a low of US$2,248 per tonne overnight. The contract is expected to trade at a range of US$2,266.5 to US$2282 per tonne. As on May 25, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2280 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2282 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2284 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2285per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2258 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2263 per tonne. Currently, 3 months LME...
After reporting a great weak-on-weak decline on Thursday, May 24, 2018, China’s primary aluminium inventory shrinks further today on May 28, 2018, including SHFE warrants, from 2.08 million tonnes to 2.05 million tonnes on fewer deliveries to warehouses at major markets in China, Shanghai Metal Market learned. The inventory today was down 25,000 million tonnes from Thursday, May 24 and 70,000 down from Monday, May 21, which indicates a faster weak-on-weak decline than the previous Monday. Almost all the major Chinese markets witnessed a drop as well like in Wuxi and Jiangsu, the inventory dipped from 853,000 tonnes, as on Thursday, to 844,000 tonnes on Monday and Shanghai saw a plunge from 448,000 tonnes to 446,000 tonnes. Other major cities also saw a decline in inventory because of...
Russian tycoon Oleg Deripaska has stepped down as director of Rusal to protect the interests of the company and its shareholders. The announcement came a day after the company said its chief executive and seven board members had resigned in an effort to seek relief from U.S. sanctions. "In furtherance of the efforts that have been made by the management of the Group to protect the interests of the Company and its shareholders since the OFAC Sanctions were imposed, Mr. Oleg Deripaska, non-executive director of the Company, has tendered his resignation as a director of the Company with effect from 25 May 2018”, the company’s statement said. The US Treasury last month said that it would consider lifting the sanctions if Rusal’s major shareholder Oleg Deripaska ceded control of the company....
According to the latest update by Shanghai Metal Market, the first stage of a hydropower project to produce and process aluminium in Zhaotong, in Yunnan province, is expected to start from June 1, 2018. A large number of aluminium companies are keen to tap Yunnan’s extensive hydropower capacity to replace their current coal-fired plants for securing power required during the electric-intensive smelting process. According to Jackie Wang, an aluminium analyst at consultants CRU in Beijing, this hydropower capacity, an alternative to coal-fired power generation will help smelters to produce green metal. While the first phase of the aluminium hydropower project is forecast to begin operations this June, the entire project is estimated to start in 2018, with an investment of 3.5 billion yuan....
As a development on the tariff issues between the US and India, both the countries will hold high-level bilateral talks between June 10 and 14. The talk is designed to elaborate on and find out a suitable solution for the steel and aluminium tariffs imposed by Trump administration. Commerce and Industry Minister Suresh Prabhu will meet US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer in the US. New Delhi threatened to retaliate with counter duties of 5%-50% on 20 items imported from the US, including almonds and motor cycles. India said that the country will levy duties worth $165.56 million — equivalent to the effects on India’s trade due to the US before June 21 if the US goes ahead with the tariff duties on steel and aluminium. “India is hopeful that the matter would be settled between the...
Russian tycoon Oleg Deripaska has asked the Russian government to start buying aluminium produced by Rusal, said a government source on Thursday, who spoke on condition of anonymity, according to Reuters report. Russia's aluminum producer Rusal also announced that its chief executive and seven board members had resigned in an effort to seek relief from the sanctions. The company said the resignations were part of the efforts that had been made by the management of the Group to protect the interests of the company and its shareholders since the OFAC sanctions were imposed in April. On April 6, the United States announced sanctions on Deripaska and Rusal. Deripaska has also asked for state support for car maker GAZ, which has been affected by the sanctions, the source said. The US Treasury...
LME aluminium climbed up after three consecutive falls and closed higher at US$ 2270 per tonne on May 24 Thursday from US$ 2227 per tonne on previous closing. The contract climbed up further and touched a high of US$2,293.5 per tonne as most base metals gained last night. Shanghai Metals Market sees it facing pressure today at US$2,250-2,290 per tonne as Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska resigned from its board. As on May 24, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2270 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2271per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2270 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2270per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2253 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2258 per tonne. Currently, 3 months LME aluminium and LME cash price settle...
Today, May 25, 2018, is the second day in a row that average A00 aluminium ingot price witnessed a surge from RMB 14570 per tonne, as on May 24, 2018, to RMB 14670 per tonne, according to Shanghai Metal Market. The prices are expected to range between RMB 14650 per tonne to RMB 14690 per tonne, with spot discounts to settle at RMB 80 per tonne to RMB 40 per tonne. Primary ingot prices registered a growth of RMB 10 to 100 per tonne across all domestic markets. While in the east, the ingot price soared from RMB 14610 per tonne, as on May 24, to RMB 14670 per tonne on May, 25; in South and North, the prices grew from RMB 14615 per tonne to RMB 14695 per tonne and from RMB 14595 per tonne to RMB 14660 per tonne respectively. The below table shows the aluminium ingot price movement in China...
The news UC Rusal resumed shipping aluminium to some consumers last week has taken the internet by storm. The Russian aluminium giant recommenced the shipment soon after the United States extended the sanctions deadline further from June 5 to October 23, 2018, for companies to wind down contracts with the Russian firm under US sanctions, sources said. The sanctions extension detailed in General Licence 14, issued late April, effectively meant that aluminium produced and sold by Rusal would be free from sanctions until October 23, so long as the deal to buy was signed before they were imposed. A metal industry source reported, “Aluminum is being shipped. Parties who have existing contracts are starting to take deliveries.” The existing deals include those such as Swiss-based mining giant...
LME aluminium continued downward trend and closed lower at US$ 2227 per tonne on May 23 Wednesday from US$ 2265.50 per tonne on previous closing. The contract fell below the 40-day moving average to a low of US$2,239 per tonne last night as the US dollar gained. It then rebounded above the five-day moving average and registered a high of US$2,277 per tonne. Its overall trading range has moved downwards this week. Shanghai Metals Market expects it to be trading at US$2,245-2,275 per tonne today. As on May 23, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2226 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2227per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2240 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2240.50 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2228 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price...
The Chinese market has been reported witnessing a steady downstream consumption against fewer deliveries to warehouses over a period of time. As a consequence of which, primary aluminium inventory is incessantly recording a plunge, indicating a balance maintained between production, supply, and consumption in the market. According to Shanghai Metal Market on May 24, 2018, China’s inventory of primary aluminium, including SHFE warrants has seen a further dip to 2.08 million tonnes, 40000 tonnes lowered from 2.12 million tonnes on Monday, May 21, 2018, and 60,000 tonnes lowered from 2.14 million tonnes a week ago. The week-on-week decline is thus, slightly higher today than the decline of 58,000 tonnes last Thursday. The current inventory status in the major Chinese cities is as follows: On...
