1. Macro perspective The US-Iran conflict entered its second week. After the escort coalition intervened, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz partially recovered, but war risk insurance rates remained elevated. Brent crude pulled back from a high of USD 101 to consolidate around USD 95, with energy cost support weakening from earlier levels but not yet fading. The US Fed delivered a 25bp rate hike at its September FOMC meeting, and the dot plot indicated one more hike may still occur this year. Chair Warsh struck a hawkish tone in his post-meeting remarks, and the US dollar index held at a 13-month high. Next week, attention turns to China's official PMI on September 30, as well as US PCE and non-farm payrolls data during the National Day holiday—with China's market closed for seven days...
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China (GACC), China's total primary aluminium imports reached 185,500 tonnes in August 2026, down 14.65 per cent year-on-year but up 0.16 per cent month-on-month. Total imports for January-August amounted to 1.66 million tonnes, a decrease of 3.41 per cent year-on-year. The 14.65 per cent year-on-year decline in August imports, coupled with a nearly flat month-on-month performance, indicates that imports have not collapsed but rather maintained a steady inflow. In August, China's total primary aluminium exports stood at 21,900 tonnes, down 14.53 per cent year-on-year and 30.48 per cent month-on-month. Cumulative exports for January-August totalled 167,500 tonnes, up 9.26 per cent year-on-year....
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The LME aluminium contract closed at US$2271 per tonne on June1 from US$2265.5 per tonne on previous closing, mostly driven by a strong dollar. LME aluminium regained some losses last Friday night with support from several moving averages. Shanghai Metals Market expects it to try to stand firmly above the US$2,300 per tonne level today with a trading range of US$2,280-2,315 per tonne. As on June 1, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2270 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2271 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2270 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2271 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2245 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2250 per tonne. Currently, 3 months LME aluminium and LME cash price settle in the same range with...
The global demand for aluminium picked up in the first three months of 2018. RUSAL estimated that global aluminium demand increased by 6% in 2017 to 64 million tonnes amid coordinated economic growth in major regions of the world, while robust demand growth left the global aluminium market in a deficit of around 1 million tonnes. Global primary aluminium production came in at 15.7 million tonnes in the first quarter of this year, according to World Aluminium Institute. A global disruption in aluminium supplies and trade issues had raised the prices of aluminium in April, and hence higher profits for the company. Series of events like the United States’ tariffs on imported aluminium and steel, followed by the sanctions on Russian aluminium giant Rusal blew a storm to create price upheaval....
US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross in a telephone briefing on Thursday announced that import tariffs of 25 per cent on steel and 10 per cent on aluminium will be imposed on Canada and Mexico and European Union from Friday. The announcement ended months of uncertainty about potential exemptions and indicated stern attitude of the Trump administration and more complications on the trade negotiation processes with these countries. Shares of industrial heavyweights who are major consumers of these metals started falling on the news. “We look forward to continued negotiations, both with Canada and Mexico on the one hand, and with the European Commission on the other hand, because there are other issues that we also need to get resolved,” Ross said to media. Canada and Mexico retaliated against...
Rio Tinto has completed the sale of its 75 per cent interest in the Winchester South coal development project in Queensland, Australia, to Whitehaven Coal Limited. Total consideration of $200 million is comprised of $150 million in cash received today and an unconditional cash payment of $50 million due in 12 months. The sale of Rio Tinto’s interests in the Kestrel and Hail Creek coal mines and Valeria coal development project are expected to complete during the second half of 2018. Mining giant Rio Tinto announced their agreement to sell its 75% interest in the Winchester South coal development project in Queensland to Whitehaven Coal for $200 million in March 2018.
Currently, Mexico is hitting the headlines due to the US tariffs on imported aluminium and steel and NAFTA negotiations. The country hit back fast on U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminium on Thursday, targeting products from congressional districts. The tit-for-tat measures would complicate the NAFTA renegotiations that underpin trade between the neighbours. While the USA is holding on to its 10 per cent import tariff on aluminium from all countries, every aluminium exporter to the US is fighting for exemptions from the tariff. When we look at our trade data, we can see that, Mexico exported a total of about 26,142 tonnes of aluminium and about 11,864 tonnes to the US in 2016. The amount dropped to a meagre 8833 tonnes in 2017 with about 232 tonnes exported to the US mostly due to the...
Century Aluminum Sebree LLC, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Century Aluminum Company, announced today that it was forced to temporarily stop production on one of its three potlines due to an electrical failure at the Sebree aluminum smelter. No injuries were sustained in connection with these events and the facility's other two potlines were unaffected. Century is continuing to assess the effects of these events but expects to restore the affected potline to full production within the next three months. Century anticipates that less than 18,000 tonnes of production will be lost as a result. Century expects that losses arising from these events, less applicable deductibles, will be covered under its insurance policies.
The US dollar index weakened but remained at high levels around 94 with support from robust US data on employment and the PCE price index. The LME aluminium contract recovered from the 40-day moving average and closed at US$2285.50 per tonne on May 31 from US$2265.5 per tonne on previous closing. LME aluminium climbed all the way up to a high of US$2,304 per tonne last night with the weakening US dollar. It is likely to test the pressure today and trade at US$2,285-2,310 per tonne. As on May 31, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2285 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2285.50 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2285 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2286 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2260 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at...
Pacific Aluminium (New Zealand) Limited (PacAl NZ) reported its financial results relating to its interest in New Zealand’s Aluminium Smelter (NZAS). NZAS registered a profit of $75 million in 2017, up from $25 million a year earlier. Consistently higher aluminium prices delivered the more favourable result for the smelter’s owners. Gretta Stephens, NZAS Chief Executive and General Manager, said: “This is a pleasing result and has given NZAS the ability to look more confidently to a commercially sustainable future.” “But predictions are for aluminium market conditions in 2018 to be volatile and NZAS remains vulnerable to that market volatility as well as movements in the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar. This is because we continue to pay one of the highest prices for delivered...
According to an update by Shanghai Metal Market on May 31, 2018, Weiqiao Group in China again reduced its purchasing price for pre-baked anode by RMB 190 per tonne for the month of June. This marked a decline for six consecutive months. Earlier, in May, the price was lowered by RMB 300 per tonne to RMB 3390 per tonne in cash and RMB 3425 per tonne on acceptance. But since many producers did not accept the reduction, arguing that pre-baked anode industry was in a loss, it called for further negotiations. The adjustment brought the prices to stand at RMB 3200 per tonne in cash and RMB 3235 per tonne on acceptance. As a result, according to SMM, the average spot price of pre-baked anode dwindled from RMB 3425 per tonne to RMB 3235 per tonne on June 1, 2018, same as that of the adjusted...
The Trump administration is reportedly planning to impose hefty tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from Canada and EU. According to the Wall Street Journal, dropping EU from the exemption list for import tariffs of 25% on steel, and 10% on aluminium may take place as early as Thursday May 31. The Globe and Mail says imposing tariffs on Canada may take place on Thursday itself and it may soon spark a trade war and complicate the negotiations over the North American Free-Trade Agreement. Washington Post first reported Donald Trump’s decision to hit Canada, Mexico and the European Union with tariffs on Wednesday. The news was also confirmed to The Globe and Mail by a Canadian official and a U.S. industry source. This is to be noted that the President has not made an official announcement...
The US dollar index fell from a six-month high to around 94 overnight due to the lower-than-expected employment data and GDP from the US, intensified worries over US-Sino trade conflicts and a rebound in the euro. LME base metals rose for the most part. The contract recovered from the 40-day moving average and closed at US$2265.5 per tonne from US$2260 per tonne on previous closing. LME aluminium traded range-bound last night. It touched a high of US$2,284 per tonne after it was dragged down by its SHFE counterpart. It is likely to retain its range bound pattern today. As on May 30, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2264.50 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2265.50 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2271.50 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$...
China’s primary aluminium inventory has been witnessing a continual decline on limited deliveries to warehouses since the beginning of the month, and today, May 31, 2018, did not display any exceptions. According to the Shanghai Metal Market, including SHFE warrants, the inventory saw a plunge from 2.05 million tonnes to 2.03 million tonnes. Deliveries to warehouses at major markets continued to be limited, SMM learned. This drop in aluminium inventory indicates that it dipped 45,000 tonnes from Thursday, May 24, and fell 20,000 tonnes from Monday, May 28. The week-on-week decline today was relatively slower than the decline of 60,000 tonnes last Thursday, and marked a fifth consecutive week of decline. The table below shows the movements of inventories across the major Chinese cities....
National Aluminum Associations, government officials and major industry players would gather in Montreal to discuss overcapacity “Roadmap” during a summit. The leaders from the Aluminium Associations of Canada, the United States, Europe and Japan will host a summit in Montreal on June 3rd and 4th to address the China overcapacity issues and discuss how it has affected the international trade scenario. This is expected to open up the discussions prior to the G7 meeting later in the week in Charlevoix, Québec. The organizers are of the view that global aluminium industry is facing great challenges considering the current market conditions, and it is vital for the industry to initiate a top level process to address overcapacity through policy changes. They want to find a solution to the...
The US dollar index surged to a high since November last year at 95.03 overnight and closed 0.47% higher from Monday at 94.85 on the plunging Euro. Base metals went down across the board as a result. LME aluminium contract tumbled to a low of US$2,248 per tonne overnight. The contract plunged below the 40-day moving average after the holiday on Tuesday and closed at US$2260 from US$2282 per tonne on previous closing. It failed to break its rangebound pattern last night. Shanghai Metals Market sees it trading at a range of US$2,250-2,280 per tonne today. As on May 29, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2259 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2260 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2262 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2263 per tonne; Dec 19 bid...
According to the update by Shanghai Metal Market, sellers in the spot aluminium market in East China showed reluctance in offloading their cargoes on Tuesday, May 29, 2018. Supply was, therefore, down from the previous day and spot discounts slightly narrowed. The SHFE 1806 contract fell as low as RMB 14, 660 per tonne on Tuesday morning, while on Monday morning, May 28, it hovered at RMB 14775 per tonne. In Shanghai, transactions were seen at RMB 14640-14650 per tonne with spot discounts settled at RMB 60 to 50 per tonne to the SHFE 1806 contract, compared to the transactions at RMB 14680-14690 per tonne with discounts of RMB 70 to 60 per tonne on the previous day (May 28, 2018). Transactions in Wuxi and Hangzhou also plunged from RMB 14680-14690 per tonne to RMB 14640-14650 per tonne...
In a local media update, the Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak said that the Russian authorities are developing measures to support the national aluminium industry after the US imposed punitive sanctions on RUSAL. “The measures aimed at supporting our aluminium industry are being developed. I have already met with the business [circles] and discussed that,” Kozak said on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF). In March, US President Donald Trump signed an order imposing tariffs for steel and aluminium imports over national security reasons. This was followed by the imposition of sanctions on Rusal, the world’s biggest aluminium producer and Rusal branded aluminium leading to LME delisting all aluminium stocks supplied by Rusal. Treasury has...
Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. (Alba)’s Chief Executive Officer, Tim Murray paid a scheduled visit to Ahmed Mansoor Al Aali (AMA Group), one of the major Bahraini contractors for its Line 6 Expansion Project, to celebrate the successful fabrication of 427 Pot Shells in early-May 2018. Murray was accompanied by Line 6 Project Director Shawqi Al Hashmi and a delegation of Line 6 Owners’ Team and Bechtel managers. Commenting about this accomplishment, Murray said: “AMA Group expertise was fundamental to complete the fabrication of pot shells safely and ahead of time. This achievement is a milestone for Alba as we bring to close the construction and delivery of Line 6 Expansion Project.” AMA Group was awarded the contract to manufacture 427 pot shells (each weighing 44 metric tonnes) for Alba’s...
China’s largest state aluminium producer Chinalco is all set to close the gap on privately run China Hongqiao Group, the world’s top aluminium producer, as it signs a deal with the Yunnan government, which will give access to the company to more smelting capacity of around 1.6 million tonnes, with another 1.45 million tonnes in the pipeline or under construction. A spokesman for Chinalco confirmed it would be Chinalco’s first aluminium asset in the province. According to a Yunnan aluminium statement on Monday, May 28, 2018, Yunnan metallurgy group, that controls Yunnan Aluminium Co. Ltd., will get merged into China Copper Co., a joint venture between Chinalco and the Yunnan provincial government. Chinalco, officially the Aluminium Corp of China owns 58 per cent of the joint venture, while...
