1. Macro perspective The US-Iran conflict entered its second week. After the escort coalition intervened, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz partially recovered, but war risk insurance rates remained elevated. Brent crude pulled back from a high of USD 101 to consolidate around USD 95, with energy cost support weakening from earlier levels but not yet fading. The US Fed delivered a 25bp rate hike at its September FOMC meeting, and the dot plot indicated one more hike may still occur this year. Chair Warsh struck a hawkish tone in his post-meeting remarks, and the US dollar index held at a 13-month high. Next week, attention turns to China's official PMI on September 30, as well as US PCE and non-farm payrolls data during the National Day holiday—with China's market closed for seven days...
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China (GACC), China's total primary aluminium imports reached 185,500 tonnes in August 2026, down 14.65 per cent year-on-year but up 0.16 per cent month-on-month. Total imports for January-August amounted to 1.66 million tonnes, a decrease of 3.41 per cent year-on-year. The 14.65 per cent year-on-year decline in August imports, coupled with a nearly flat month-on-month performance, indicates that imports have not collapsed but rather maintained a steady inflow. In August, China's total primary aluminium exports stood at 21,900 tonnes, down 14.53 per cent year-on-year and 30.48 per cent month-on-month. Cumulative exports for January-August totalled 167,500 tonnes, up 9.26 per cent year-on-year....
Grow with
AL Circle
Like many other trading allies of the United States, Israel too could not win a reprieve from the US additional tariffs on aluminium and steel imports. In response to this, a group of Israeli manufacturers prompted warnings that this could bring in a “death blow” to local industries. In March, the US President had imposed a 25 per cent tariff on imported steel and 10 per cent on imported aluminium, under a little-used weapon in US trade law declaring that these metal tariffs were meant to protect its domestic producers. So far, only Brazil, South Korea, Australia, and Argentina had been granted a relief from the tariffs. The European Union, Canada, and Mexico, despite being important trading partners of the US, could not win a permanent relief after the expiry of the temporary exemption...
The China market is buzzing with the expectations that primary aluminium prices would stabilize or may increase supported by alumina prices. Meanwhile, anticipation of a growth in aluminium inventory grows amid low seasonal demand and slow pace in re-commissioning of capacity. Shanghai Metals Market expects aluminium prices to remain rangebound in the short term. Average spot price of A00 aluminium ingot in China stands at RMB 13,830 per tonne today, down from RMB 14010 per tonne yesterday. Alumina price stands at RMB 2839 (US$426) per tonne. Australian Alumina FOB price stands at USD 468 per tonne. In another update from SMM, Yingkou Xintai Aluminum has secured permit to commission 322,500 tpy of new primary aluminium capacity in Liaoning province in north China. In the north China...
Despite being placed under U.S. sanction in April, the world’s second biggest aluminium producer Rusal increased its aluminium shipments by 49 percent in June from May, according to news reported by Interfax news agency and published by Reuters. Citing Russian Railways data, Interfax said, Rusal increased aluminium exports to 294,000 tonnes last month, up from 197,000 tonnes of aluminium in May. In the first six months of 2018, aluminium exports totalled 1.27 million tonnes, down 9 percent from the same period the previous year, Interfax said, citing the data. In May, the company restarted the shipment soon after U.S. extended the sanctions deadline further from June 5 to October 23, 2018, for companies to wind down contracts with the Russian firm under US sanctions. Rusal sold a total of...
The US dollar index gained 0.04% to close at 94.09 as the euro weakened. LME aluminium closed Wednesday’s trading at US$ 2140 per tonne, slightly up from US$ 2135.5 per tonne in last closing. LME aluminium tumbled from above the 10-day moving average level to a low of US$2,081.5 per tonne on intensified trade conflicts. Shanghai Metals Market expects it to to trade under pressure at US$2,060-2,085 per tonne today. As on July 10, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2140 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2140.50per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2109 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2109.50 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2152 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2157 per tonne. The LME aluminium opening stock increased to...
Russia’s Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov said on Monday, July 9, that the country plans to increase domestic aluminium demand by 300,000 tonnes in 2018, according to news reported by TASS. "We have about one million [tonnes of aluminium consumed in Russia in 2017 - TASS]. 300,000 tonnes will be added this year," Manturov said. Aluminium consumption in Russia can grow to 2.5 million tonnes in five years. Russia announced last week it would levy additional import duties of 25 to 40 per cent on the US industrial goods, as a retaliatory act against the US tariffs on imported aluminium and steel. Manturov said additional duties on US products will not affect national market. Manturov added: "We proceeded from and prepared the range of products we are manufacturing. Therefore,...
After a continuous downtrend, LME aluminium registered a rise and closed at US$ 2135.5 per tonne on Monday from US$ 2098.5 per tonne in the previous closing. It registered a second consecutive rise last night. It stood firm above the five-day moving average, jumping to a high of US$2,134.5 per tonne with resistance at the 10-day moving average. Aluminium inventory across LME warehouses rose 9,275 tonne to 1.12 million tonne. Shanghai Metals Market sees it trading at US$2,100-2,130 per tonne today. As on July 9, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2135 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2135.50 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2105 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2106 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2140 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer...
The A00 aluminium ingot spot price continued to rise three days in a row since July 6, 2018, according to the data by Shanghai Metals Market. Today, as of July 10, the ingot price raised RMB 20 per tonne to stand at RMB 14010 per tonne, compared to RMB 13990 per tonne on July 9 after growing from RMB 13910 per tonne, as of July 6. The average price today is expected to range between RMB 13990 per tonne and RMB 14030 per tonne, with spot discounts to settle at RMB 50 per tonne to RMB 10 per tonne. However, not all major Chinese markets witnessed a growth in A00 aluminium ingot spot price, despite a hike in the average price. Only in the north, the ingot spot price registered a rise by RMB 10 per tonne to stand at RMB 14010 per tonne. In the east and south, on the other hand, the aluminium...
Russia declared on Friday, July 6, 2018, that it would levy additional import duties of 25 to 40 per cent on the US industrial goods, as a retaliatory act against the US tariffs on imported aluminium and steel. The economy ministry said Russia would impose tariffs on some goods from the United States for which there are Russian-made substitutes. Those goods include fibre optics and equipment of road construction, the oil and gas industries and metal processing and mining. According to the ministry, these heavy duties are a compensatory measure for US$87.6 million of damage suffered by Russian export companies as a result of the US metal tariffs. The hike will cost an overall US$537.6 million, said the economy ministry, while adding that Russia may impose more such compensatory measures in...
Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. (Alba) has reported production and sales result for the second quarter of 2018. Alba closed the second quarter of 2018 with the best-ever production and aluminium sales volume. Quarterly aluminium production topped 252,081 tonnes, up by 23% Year-on-Year; while sales’ volume jumped by 19% YoY to reach 249,595 tonnes in comparison to 210,157 tonnes in Q2 2017. Value-Added Sales averaged 60% of total shipments in comparison to 61% in Q2 2017. Despite the market volatility and trade tensions, Alba continued to perform profitably with operation efficiency and a well-managed market. For the first half of 2018, total production reached 511,480 tonnes in comparison to 453,395 tonnes in H1 2017 (up by 13% YoY). With this production rate, the company is expected to cross an...
The US dollar index hit a three-week low to around 93.9 and closed at 94 last Friday night. This was 0.52% lower from a week ago, marking the biggest loss in four weeks. LME base metals felt downward pressure on escalated tension between China and the US. LME aluminium dipped slightly and closed at US$ 2098.50 per tonne on Friday July 6 from US$ 2127 per tonne on previous closing. It dipped further at a slower pace last Friday night as it rebounded from a low of US$2,071 per tonne on weakened US dollar. With pressure at the five-day moving average, it closed at US$2,086.5 per tonne after night trading and is expected to trade at a range of US$2,075-2,095 per tonne today. As on July 6, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2098 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$...
China’s inventory of primary aluminium across eight major markets continued to dip over the weekend. According to Shanghai Metals Markets, including SHFE warrants, the inventory dropped 6,000 tonnes to stand at 1.83 million tonnes, as of Monday, July 9, 2018. A slowdown in downstream consumption led the decline to be smaller from the drop recorded a week ago. The inventory in some of the Chinese cities like Wuxi and Jiangsu, Shanghai, Hangzhou and Zhejiang, and Tianjin registered a plunge, compared to July 5, 2018, while in Nanhai and Guangdong, Gongyi and Henan, and Linyi and Shandong, the inventory rose from the previous day. More details are given in the table below: The average A00 aluminium ingot price surged further from RMB 13910 per tonne to RMB 13990 per tonne. The average price...
Governor Greg Abbott urged President Donald Trump in a letter on July 28, to reconsider tariffs on imported aluminium and steel, arguing that the metals are vital to the growth of Texas’ industries. In the letter, Abbott mentioned Texas companies imported more than US$8.3 billion worth of aluminium and steel last year, largely for use by the oil and gas industry. Echoing earlier comments by industry groups opposed to the tariffs, Abbott said energy companies depend on specialty steel for which there is no manufacturer in the US. "Our country's steel and aluminium workers are a vital part of the national workforce, and creating jobs in that industry must be a top priority," said the letter. "But attempting to protect these jobs through the new tariffs could jeopardize the livelihoods of...
The US dollar dipped to a three-week low ahead of the tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese imports. Base metals mostly ceased their downward trend but remained weak. Benchmark aluminium price on London Metal Exchange increased to close at US$2127 per tonne on Thursday, July 5. After touching a high of US$2,112 per tonne during night trading, LME aluminium fell to a low of US$2,077.5 per tonne today morning with pressure from the five-day moving average. SMM expects the contract to trade at US$2,070-2,110 per tonne today. As on July 5, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2126 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2127 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2100 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2101 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2138 per tonne,...
Figures of the Union commerce and industry ministry indicated that aluminium exports from the country increased by 36 per cent in 2017-18, aided by global demand, which outstripped supply. The declaration of US tariffs on aluminium and steel imports from most of the countries, a 21 per cent growth in aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) to an average of $2,045 per tonne and over-supply to the domestic market helped exports to rise in the last financial year. The trend is expected to continue in 2018-19, because of the US sanctions on UC Rusal, one of the largest producers in April, which drove panic buying among aluminium buyers and lifted LME price and premiums to a height. This will also be driven by the trade tensions between the US and China. Aluminium prices were also...
Most LME and SHFE base metals dropped last night. LME aluminium wakened to a low of US$2,083 per tonne before rebounding to USS$2,103 per tonne. LME aluminium contract closed lower at US$ 2120.5 per tonne yesterday July 4 from US$ 2165 per tonne on July 3. Shanghai Metals Market expects the contract to trade at US$2,080-2,115 per tonne today. As on July 4, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2120 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2120.50 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2098 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2100 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2133 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2138 per tonne. The LME aluminium opening stock decreased to 1104600 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 905700 tonnes, and Cancelled...
The decline in China’s social inventory of primary aluminium continued to slow down over the week ended July 5, 2018, according to the data showed by Shanghai Metals Market. This could be attributed to the slowdown in consumption, resulting in suppressed purchasing interest among downstream consumers. As of Thursday, July 5, inventories of primary aluminium, including SHFE warrants, across eight major consumption areas shrank only 1,000 tonnes from Monday, July 2, to stand at 1.83 million tonnes. The figure fell 10,000 tonnes from last Thursday, June 28, compared to a drop of 40,000 in the week before. In some of the Chinese cities like Wuxi and Jiangsu, Gongyi and Henan, and Linyi and Shandong, the inventories witnessed a rise today, on July 5, in compare with Monday, July 2. While the...
On the expected three-fold growth in steel and aluminium consumption by 2030, Nalco CMD Tapan Kumar Chand declared that skilled manpower will get their due values. He said, “The pattern of employment is undergoing a drastic change. The skill sets need to be realigned to meet the demands of the industries and cutting edge technology will provide the competitive edge.” He also said, while stressing on the importance of generating employment, “As Aluminium sector is expected to grow substantially, NALCO is geared up for the next wave of expansion. Over 11,000 people will be recruited by NALCO in the near future and we will shortlist the candidates from UPSC screened list. We will not take written test for these candidates since they have already been screened by the UPSC.” “Out of Rs. 28,000...
The Reserve Bank of India has urged the Hyderabad High Court for seeking to permit The State Bank of India to go ahead with insolvency proceedings against Anrak Aluminium, an Indo-UAE joint venture. SBI legal counsel VK Sajith has confirmed the RBI’s petition but refused to comment on the matter terming it sub judice. The company had defaulted on INR ?3,242 crores of loans and US$96 million of external commercial borrowings to the SBI-led lender’s consortium. In March, the high court had stayed the proceedings before the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT), after Anrak Aluminium approached the court saying that it had already entered into a one-time settlement with lenders. But the banking regulators challenged the case claiming that neither the company formulated any resolution plan...
