1. Macro perspective The US-Iran conflict entered its second week. After the escort coalition intervened, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz partially recovered, but war risk insurance rates remained elevated. Brent crude pulled back from a high of USD 101 to consolidate around USD 95, with energy cost support weakening from earlier levels but not yet fading. The US Fed delivered a 25bp rate hike at its September FOMC meeting, and the dot plot indicated one more hike may still occur this year. Chair Warsh struck a hawkish tone in his post-meeting remarks, and the US dollar index held at a 13-month high. Next week, attention turns to China's official PMI on September 30, as well as US PCE and non-farm payrolls data during the National Day holiday—with China's market closed for seven days...
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China (GACC), China's total primary aluminium imports reached 185,500 tonnes in August 2026, down 14.65 per cent year-on-year but up 0.16 per cent month-on-month. Total imports for January-August amounted to 1.66 million tonnes, a decrease of 3.41 per cent year-on-year. The 14.65 per cent year-on-year decline in August imports, coupled with a nearly flat month-on-month performance, indicates that imports have not collapsed but rather maintained a steady inflow. In August, China's total primary aluminium exports stood at 21,900 tonnes, down 14.53 per cent year-on-year and 30.48 per cent month-on-month. Cumulative exports for January-August totalled 167,500 tonnes, up 9.26 per cent year-on-year....
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As confirmed by National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data on Monday, China’s aluminium output in June rose 1.6 per cent from May to 2.83 million tonnes. The rise was mainly driven by gradual ramp-up of new smelting capacity. According to Reuters collection based on NBS data, the world’s top aluminium producer reported a daily aluminium output of 94,000 tonnes in June month, compared with 90,000 tonnes in May, which had one extra day. The daily figure is the highest since June 2017 and the second-highest ever. However, June output was up 0.8 per cent YoY. The data released in June 2017 preceded illegal smelting capacity cut announcement in eastern China’s Shandong province and environmental restrictions on output in winter heating seasons. NBS has not updated the revised data for June 2017...
According to Tehran Times, Iran’s major aluminum producers produced 91,379 tons of aluminum during the three-month period from March 21 to June 21, which shows 11 percent growth from the figure of the same period of time in the past year, IRNA reported on Tuesday. As reported, these major companies produced 30,432 tons of aluminum during the Iranian calendar month of Khordad (May 22 – June 21), 13 percent more than the figure for the same month last year. Aluminum production by the country’s major producers rose by 9.7 percent year-on-year during the first two months of the Iranian calendar year (March 21-May 21). As reported by ILNA, production of aluminum by these major companies was 55,568 tons in the two-month period of the preceding year.
Base metals saw mixed trading on the impact of trade war and slower growth of China's economy. LME aluminium lost 1.5%. The light metal contract traded within a broad range overnight with support at the five-day moving average and resistance at the 10-day one. It closed at US$2,031.5 per tonne after touching a low of US$2,030.5 per tonne. The LME inventory has been continuously surging to touch 1.18 million tonnes. Shanghai Metals Market expects it to trade at US$2,025-2,060 per tonne today. As on July 17, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2109.50 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2110 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2064.50 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2065 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2125 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer...
After registering a slight hike on July 17, from RMB 13870 per tonne to RMB 13910 per tonne, A00 aluminium ingot spot price decided to show restraint today, July 18, according to Shanghai Metals Market. The average prices ranged between RMB 13890 per tonne and RMB 13930 per tonne, with no change in spot discount as well from RMB 80 to RMB 40 per tonne. On the face of lower primary aluminium inventory across the region, the primary aluminium spot price did not display any sweeping growth but had been maintaining a steady trend throughout the month. However, compared to the previous month, the primary aluminium spot price recorded a month-on-month decline until now. Nonetheless, the aluminium price is expected to rise with the increasing demand to about 70 million tonnes by 2020, which...
On Monday, July 16, the United States reportedly brought cases to the World Trade Organisation against the European Union, China, Canada, Mexico, and Turkey, as they had been imposing heavy retaliatory duties on American exports. US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer claimed that these retaliatory duties by the US trading partners violated the rules of the Geneva-based WTO that is responsible for mediating trade disputes. “Instead of working with us to address a common problem, some of our trading partners have elected to respond with retaliatory tariffs designed to punish American workers, farmers and companies,” he said. He also said that if WTO also recognises that these retaliatory duties are violating its rules, then it will assess the damage and calculate tariffs that the US...
DP World, the Dubai-based ports operator, on Monday signed a deal with Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) aimed at boosting the UAE’s position as an aluminium exporter. The deal, a long-term service agreement, extends the partnership between the two companies, and facilitates the storage and transportation of aluminium produced by EGA. Under the agreement, EGA will lease a storage area that is the largest used by a company at Jebel Ali Port and that will further ease the export of EGA’s metal worldwide. EGA’s new yard at the port is over 175,000 square metres and has storage capacity of around 60,000 tonnes. Sultan Bin Sulayem, chairman and chief executive officer of DP World, said the deal was an opportunity for the two companies to work together to support Dubai and the UAE’s economy....
Rio Tinto reported a slight drop in alumina and aluminium production in second quarter as well as in H1 2018 due to operational issues like lock-out and power outage. Rio Tinto chief executive J-S Jacques said “Operational performance was solid across most commodities, rounding out a strong first half performance for the Group… Our sustained focus on cash generation, combined with disciplined capital allocation, will ensure we continue to deliver superior returns to our shareholders across the short, medium and long term.” Quarterly aluminium production was three per cent lower than Q2 2017, mainly due to an ongoing lock-out at the Becancour smelter and power interruption at the Dunkerque smelter on 6 February 2018. Dunkerque has been progressively ramping up towards full production...
According to Shanghai Metals Market, spot primary aluminium market in east China witnessed a narrow trading activity on Monday, July 16, despite the tumble in prices. The reason could be the reluctance of downstream consumers in purchasing primary aluminium during a seasonal lull. The SHFE 1807 contract also fell on the morning of its last trading day. In Shanghai, the transactions were mostly heard at RMB 13850 per tonne to RMB 13870 per tonne, with spot discounts at RMB 10 to 0 per tonne against the 1807 SHFE contract. Transactions in Wuxi were also seen at RMB 13850 per tonne to RMB 13870 per tonne, while that in Hangzhou, the transactions hovered at RMB 13870 per tonne to RMB 13890 per tonne. Although sellers in east China were keen to offload cargoes on increased primary aluminium...
Base metals dipped for the most part on slower growth of China's economy in the second quarter. The key development today is the release of US industrial production data for June. LME aluminium jumped to a high of US$2,074 per tonne and closed above the five-day moving average last night. The contract finally closed at US$ 2130 per tonne on yesterday. US$ Shanghai Metals Market expects the contract to trade at US$2,030-2,075 per tonne today amid market expectation of the US lifting its sanctions against Russia. LME is expected to get support from the positive market fundamentals generated by improved relations between the two countries. As on July 13, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2125 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2130 per tonne; 3-months bid price...
The U.S. and India are scheduled to sit across the table this week in Geneva to discuss the case filed by India with the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) dispute settlement mechanism over the U.S.’s imposition of import duties on steel and aluminium. The talks will be held under the aegis of WTO’s dispute settlement mechanism, according to a news report by the Press Trust of India. India is part of the group of nations — which includes China, Russia and Norway, among others — to have filed separate dispute claims on the topic with the WTO. The meeting is part of the consultations the U.S. will be holding with all such countries on July 19-20. It may be recalled that the U.S. had imposed a 25% tariff on steel and a 10% tariff on aluminium imports from India. India’s exports of the two...
The US dollar index dipped after it rose, with pressure from poorer-than-expected US consumer confidence. Base metals mostly inched up but faced resistance from the expected fallout from the trade war. After trading slightly lower last Friday, LME aluminium failed to break pressure at the five-day moving average last Friday night, as it rebounded to a high of US$2,058 per tonne on weakened US dollar. It is expected to diverge further from that moving average level today with trading range at US$2,015-2,050 per tonne. As on July 13, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2100 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2102per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2051per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2051.50 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2110 per tonne,...
After an incessant fall over the past ten consecutive weeks, China’s inventory of primary aluminium across eight major markets, including SHFE warrants, inched up 17000 tonnes over the weekend ended on July 16, 2018, to stand at 1.82 million tonnes, Shanghai Metal Market data showed. On last Monday, July 9, the primary aluminium inventory stood at 1.83 million tonnes, while on Thursday, July 12, the inventory dwindled to 1.8 million tonnes. This indicates that although the inventory marked a growth today from Thursday, July 12, yet remained lower from the previous Monday, July 9. On the other hand, despite a growth in inventory across the major Chinese markets, a few cities like Gongyi and Henan, Tianjin, Chongqing, and Linyi and Shandong displayed a plunge or restraint. The table below...
A press release from the Reed Exhibitions confirms that ALUMINIUM INDIA 2019, the subcontinent’s biggest event for this sector will be held simultaneously with INCAL Conferencefrom 31 January to 2 February in Bhubaneswar, Odisha; the hub of the Indian aluminium industry. Indian Aluminium Industry is adding capacities and investing in new technologies to cater to the growing demand from sectors like transport and construction. The country was the second largest aluminium producer in ex-china world in 2017 and the country is focusing on developing a strong downstream sector. ALUMINIUM INDIA 2019 will reflect these market developments and for the first time, the trade fair will be accompanied by the renowned INCAL Conference, organised in parallel by the Aluminium Association of India (AAI)....
Trump’s decision to impose additional tariffs on imported aluminium and steel could bring in a negative impact on United States economy, said Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Thursday, July 12. To quote Powell, "If it works out other ways, so that we wind up having high tariffs on a lot of products and a lot of traded goods and services ... and that they become sustained for a long period of time ... that could be a negative for our economy." Besides, US businesses had also been expressing concerns over the Trump administration’s decision to impose tariffs, added the Federal Chief. He said, "I think if you're picking up a newspaper today you're hearing that from a lot of businesses.” "It's very difficult to predict how it turns out." Ever since the US imposed high tariffs on...
Deputy USTR Jeffrey Gerrish said India’s recent retaliatory act against the US decision to impose tariffs on imported aluminium and steel was not appropriate. Mr. Gerrish opposed India’s retaliation by claiming that US’ tariffs on imported aluminium and steel were not a safeguard measure. Therefore, according to him, India’s retaliation held no ground. On Thursday, July 12, he said while addressing a Washington audience at the first Annual Leadership Summit of US India Strategic and Partnership Forum, “We were disappointed with the fact that India actually has imposed retaliatory measures actually it's not imposed them yet but announced retaliatory measures.” "They (India) are approaching this as a safeguard metric that we have imposed. On that basis, they've determined that they have a...
LME aluminium plummeted to a low of US$2,032 per tonne overnight before it recovered some losses on talk that the US would ease sanctions on aluminium giant Rusal. LME aluminium contract closed lower at US$ 2104.5 per tonne yesterday July 12 from US$ 2120.5 per tonne on July 11. Shanghai Metals Market expects the contract to trade under pressure today. It is seen trading at US$2,030-2,065 per tonne. As on July 12, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2104 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2104.50per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2056.50 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2057 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2113 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2118 per tonne. The LME aluminium opening stock increased to 1134600 tonnes....
China's inventory of primary aluminium across eight major markets again continued to drop on higher downstream consumption due to falling prices. According to Shanghai Metals Market, inventories of primary aluminium, including SHFE warrants, fell 33,000 tonnes over the week to stand at 1.8 million tonnes as of Thursday July 12. In Wuxi and Jiangsu, the inventory dropped from 772,000 tonnes, as of July 9, to 767,000 tonnes on July 12; in Nanhai and Guangdong, the inventory dropped from 238,000 tonnes, to 228,000 tonnes; in Gongyi and Henan, the inventory stood at 179,000 tonnes on July 12. Other major Chinese cities like Shanghai, Hangzhou and Zhejiang and Linyi and Shandong also registered a little drop in inventories on July 12. More details are given in the table below: In another...
The US dollar index gained 0.66% to close at 94.72 as its inflation data came in stronger than expected. LME aluminium closed Thursday’s trading at US$ 2120.5 per tonne, down from US$ 2140 per tonne in last closing. LME aluminium rebounded to a high of US$2,086 per tonne during the European trading session as market concerns over a trade war eased. However, it met resistance at the closing level on Tuesday, and inched down to close at US$2,060.5 per tonne. We see it hovering weakly at US$2,045-2,075 per tonne today. As on July 11, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2120 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2120.50per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2078 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2079 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2133per tonne,...
