1. Macro perspective The US-Iran conflict entered its second week. After the escort coalition intervened, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz partially recovered, but war risk insurance rates remained elevated. Brent crude pulled back from a high of USD 101 to consolidate around USD 95, with energy cost support weakening from earlier levels but not yet fading. The US Fed delivered a 25bp rate hike at its September FOMC meeting, and the dot plot indicated one more hike may still occur this year. Chair Warsh struck a hawkish tone in his post-meeting remarks, and the US dollar index held at a 13-month high. Next week, attention turns to China's official PMI on September 30, as well as US PCE and non-farm payrolls data during the National Day holiday—with China's market closed for seven days...
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China (GACC), China's total primary aluminium imports reached 185,500 tonnes in August 2026, down 14.65 per cent year-on-year but up 0.16 per cent month-on-month. Total imports for January-August amounted to 1.66 million tonnes, a decrease of 3.41 per cent year-on-year. The 14.65 per cent year-on-year decline in August imports, coupled with a nearly flat month-on-month performance, indicates that imports have not collapsed but rather maintained a steady inflow. In August, China's total primary aluminium exports stood at 21,900 tonnes, down 14.53 per cent year-on-year and 30.48 per cent month-on-month. Cumulative exports for January-August totalled 167,500 tonnes, up 9.26 per cent year-on-year....
Grow with
AL Circle
The US dollar was steady against the euro and slipped against the risk-sensitive Aussie, as investors digested China-US tariff news. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, dipped about 0.1% at 94.50.Base metals traded with pressure for the most part. LME aluminium closed the day's trading lower at US$ 1981 per tonne on Wednesday, September 19. It slid to the lowest of the week at US$2,015 per tonne during the European trading session. With support at the five-day moving average,it finally settled at US$2,030 per tonne. Shanghai Metals Market forecasts it to trade at US$2,020-2,070 per tonne today. As on September 19, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 1980 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1981 per...
Primary aluminium inventories in China have once again recorded a plunge on September 20 because of improved consumption. According to the report from Shanghai Metals Market, the inventories across eight major consumption areas, including SHFE warrants are hovering at 1.623 million after being decreased by some 53,000 tonnes from last Thursday, September 13 and 22,000 tonnes from Monday, September 17. In Wuxi and Jiangsu, the inventory is seen at 699,000 tonnes while in Shanghai, the inventory is hovering at 371,000 tonnes. The inventory is Nanhai and Guangdong is further less than the other two markets at 205,000 tonnes. To know more about the current status of primary aluminium inventories across other major Chinese markets, refer to the chart below. In this background, the A00...
Hydro has made a final build decision to invest NOK 1.4 billion at Husnes to upgrade and start-up the plant's second production line, which will double the plant's aluminium production and create 90 more jobs. Since the investment decision in December 2017, Hydro has been detailing the project towards the final build decision. "We're committing to aluminum production in Norway based on clean, renewable energy and doing so with world-class technology," says Hilde Merete Aasheim, Head of Primary Metal in Hydro. In the restart of the line, which was shut down in 2009, Hydro will introduce new technology elements that will give better performance at the plant. Hydro Husnes today produces about 95,000 tonnes of primary aluminium per year. With the re-start, the plant will produce 190,000...
In a massive relief for India, the United States is all set to exempt Indian aluminium and steel from the higher tariff regime announced by President Donald Trump's administration this March. But the exemption is likely to come with riders, a top government official tells ET Now. "The US has agreed to exempt a certain percentage of India's average exports in last five years from the highrt import duty, but talks are still on as India is pushing for a complete exemption," a senior government official said. The US has exempted some other countries from import duties and they are willing to include India in the list too, the official added. In March, US had imposed 25% import duty on steel and 10% on aluminium, a move India retaliated against by announcing its intention to levy a higher...
The US dollar index rebounded as it recovered from earlier weakness that came after China responded with new tariffs on $60 billion worth of US goods. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields were also on the rise, to their highest since May for the 10-year bond. Base metals increased for the most part. Market worries over trade conflict between China and the US eased after official decisions on tariffs were made Tuesday. Prices of aluminium are expected to have little downward room with the trade war now getting offcial. China's Ministry of Commerce (MOC) on Tuesday September 18 confirmed US' decision to impose an additional 10% tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports and expressed its plan to take countermeasures to safeguard the country. LME aluminium closed the day’s trading at US$ 2012...
After declining two days in a row, the A00 aluminium ingot spot price spurs yet again on September 19, by RMB 30 per tonne, Shanghai Metals Market found. A day before, the price was at 14430 per tonne while today the price has concluded at RMB 14460 per tonne. The average prices are expected to range between RMB 14460 per tonne and RMB 14480 per tonne; with spot discount to be settled at RMB 40 per tonne. In the east and north, the spot prices of A00 aluminium ingot have climbed RMB 45 per tonne to stand at RMB 14465 per tonne and RMB 144485 per tonne, respectively. In the south, the price has increased by RMB 50 to stand at RMB 14620 per tonne, a little down than the rest two markets. Alumina spot price, on the other hand, has recorded a plunge on September 19, from RMB 3302 per tonne,...
The United States has thrown Russian Aluminium Company Rusal a lifeline by loosening sanctions imposed on the company in April. Critically, the U.S. Treasury has tweaked its sanctions to allow Rusal to enter into new contracts with existing customers. This is good news for the Russian company, which has been shunned by buyers negotiating 2019 shipments. It’s also good news for the aluminium market, which was facing the prospect of 3.7 million tonnes of Rusal product being locked out of the supply chain. However, the broader sanctions threat against Rusal, a by-product of the sanctions against its oligarch owner Oleg Deripaska, remains. An Oct. 23 deadline for customers to wind down business with the company still stands, leaving any new contracts still beholden to the same underlying...
The US dollar index slumped against the euro and sterling, which were buoyed by optimism that Britain would reach a deal with the European Union (EU) on the terms of its departure from the trade bloc. Base metals closed mixed. LME aluminium closed the day's trading lower at US$ 1985 per tonne on Monday. Later it climbed up during the European trading session, with limited momentum. It closed at US$2,033.5 per tonne after rising to a high of US$2,043 per tonne. As on September 17, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 1984.50 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1985 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2017 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2017.50 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2050 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2055 per...
According to a Reuter’s report, shares of China Hongqiao Group, the world’s biggest aluminium producer, dropped for a second day on Monday, 17 September 2018. The drop came after its home province of Shandong announced introduction of fees for captive power plants. The Shandong commodity price bureau said owners of captive power plants would need to pay 0.05 yuan (US$0.0073) kWh of electricity generated from July 2018, rising to 0.1016 yuan kWh after 2019. Analysts estimate that the new policy would increase Hongqiao’s aluminium production costs by around 500 yuan ($73) per tonne. Hongqiao said on Monday that it has “not received any specific notice at this time.” The company said it would talk with relevant government authorities “to provide reasonable suggestions with a view to securing...
The US dollar index rebounded last Friday, after a positive showing for consumer sentiment, and increased 0.46% to close at 94.96. Base metals, except for tin, fell across the board. LME aluminium closed the day’s trading on Friday with US$ 2015.5 per tonne and after some recovery during Friday night trading; the contract was finally dragged to US$2,029.5 per tonne as the US dollar grew on optimistic consumer sentiment data. It closed at US$2,034 per tonne with open interests up 4,071 lot to 688,000 lots. As the US Treasury eased sanctions on Rusal, LME aluminium opened lower at US$2,020 per tonne, and may trade weakly at US$2,005-2,035 per tonne today. As on September 14, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2015 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2015.50 per...
According to the latest update from Shanghai Metals Market, inventories of primary aluminium across eight major consumption areas in China decreased further by some 31,000 tonnes to stand at 1.645 million tonnes as of Monday September 17. On last Thursday, the inventories had lowered 38,000 tonnes to stand at 1.68 tonnes, which means the stocks reduced 2 per cent over the weekend. This plunge in inventories could be attributable to the sluggish arrival to warehouses. However, despite the further plunge in primary aluminium inventories on limited stock arrivals across all the major Chinese markets, the A00 aluminium ingot spot price dropped to RMB 14480 per tonnes. On Friday, September 14, the ingot price had stood at RMB 14510 per tonne, which means the price dipped RMB 30 per tonne over...
According to a press update from Norsk Hydro it has signed and an agreement with Rio Tinto to terminate the acquisition process for Rio Tinto's Icelandic aluminium plant ISAL. The takeover process also included its interests in Dutch anode facility Aluchemie and Swedish aluminium fluoride plant Alufluor. Hydro made a binding offer to acquire Rio Tinto's Icelandic aluminium plant Rio Tinto Iceland Ltd in February 2018 for a value of USD 345 million. The offer also included, Rio’s 53% share in Dutch anode facility Aluminium & Chemie Rotterdam B.V. (Aluchemie), and 50% share in Swedish aluminium fluoride plant Alufluor AB. The Sale and Purchase Agreement (SPA) was signed on 8 June 2018, after consultations with Rio Tinto employees in France and the Netherlands. The acquisition was subjected...
The first week of September was marked by a rising US dollar index and a falling LME aluminium graph. However, LME aluminium recovered during the second week. LME aluminium rose to a high of US$2,080 per tonne on September 10, after closing flat the previous week driven by the fact that workers extended their strike at Alcoa's alumina operations in Western Australia. The light aluminium contract traded within a range of US$ 2000 to US$ 2035 per tonne over the week. Resumed NAFTA negotiations, falling US dollar, higher alumina prices, expectation around lifting of sanction on Rusal and sign of eased trade tension between China and the US are the factors that continued to drive the LME prices throughout the two weeks. The news that European consumers would avoid signing supply agreements...
China’s aluminium producers cut output by 3 percent in August from the month before, government data showed on Friday, as high raw material costs squeeze their profit margins. China, the world’s biggest aluminium producer, churned out 2.84 million tonnes of the metal last month, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). That was down from 2.93 million tonnes in July, which matched the all-time monthly high, but was up 7.8 percent from a year earlier, the NBS said. On a daily basis, China produced around 91,600 tonnes of primary aluminium last month, the lowest since May, according to Reuters calculations based on the data. Aluminium prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange climbed 2.1 percent over August, but spot prices for alumina, the substance used to make the metal, rose...
IBAAS successfully organized 7th International Conference and Exhibition (IBAAS-2018) during September 5 - 7, 2018 India with the theme “Indian Aluminium Industry – Status, Strategies & Way Forward for Accelerated Growth”. This Conference covered complete value chain from bauxite to aluminium downstream products in two and half days of interactive meet. About 220 delegates from all over the world participated in this mega Aluminium event in Mumbai. The conference was followed by visit to Hindalco’s Taloja Aluminium downstream facility and Aditya Birla Science and Technology Company Private Limited (ABSTCPL). Mr. Satish Pai, Managing Director, HINDALCO and Mr. Ron Knapp, Secretary General, International Aluminium Institute inaugurated the conference. The conference was also graced by...
The US dollar fell to low in one and a half months against a basket of currencies after data showed that US consumer prices increased less than expected in August, paring traders' outlook that domestic inflation is accelerating. Signs of eased trade tension between China and the US, with the potential trade negotiations, also pressured the greenback. Base metals closed mixed. The LME aluminium contract closed Thursday at US$ 2014.50per tonne. The lower US dollar index pushed LME aluminium up and the contract rose to the highest overnight at US$2,080 per tonne within 40 minutes. Open interests increased 11,110 lots to 684,000 lots. The price is likely to consolidate at US$2,030-2,070 per tonne today. As on September 13, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2013.50 per tonne, LME...
Shanghai Metals Market senior analyst Liu Xiaolei believes that the production cost of primary aluminium may surge backed on settling down of charges over captive power plants in the Shandong province earlier this week. This whole phenomenon may bolster the domestic prices of primary aluminium as well, apprehends Liu further. Price Bureau of the province set the charges at RMB 0.1016 kWh and gives a winding down period from July 1, 2018, to December 31, 2019. The charges stand at RMB 0.05 kWh during that period. This is likely to drive the cost up to RMB 680 with the charges at RMB 0.05 kWh, given the costs RMB 13,600 kWh to produce one tonne of primary aluminium. Liu expects prices of primary aluminium to trade at RMB 14500 per tonne to RMB 15500 per tonne in the fourth quarter of the...
The US dollar index slid against a basket of other currencies as investors cut safe-haven holdings of the greenback, following a report that senior US officials were seeking to jumpstart trade talks with China. The rebound in the euro and pound also weighed on the US dollar. As market fretted over the US relaxing sanctions on Rusal, LME aluminium slumped to a low of US$2,010 per tonne. The day’s trading was closed at US$1981.50 per tonne yesterday from US$ 2035 per tonne the day before. Prospects on potential China-US trade talks then buoyed it to rebound, but heavy pressure was seen from several moving averages above. It closed the night trading at US$2,057.5 per tonne and may trade at US$2,040-2,070 per tonne today. As on September 12, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 1981...
