1. Macro perspective The US-Iran conflict entered its second week. After the escort coalition intervened, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz partially recovered, but war risk insurance rates remained elevated. Brent crude pulled back from a high of USD 101 to consolidate around USD 95, with energy cost support weakening from earlier levels but not yet fading. The US Fed delivered a 25bp rate hike at its September FOMC meeting, and the dot plot indicated one more hike may still occur this year. Chair Warsh struck a hawkish tone in his post-meeting remarks, and the US dollar index held at a 13-month high. Next week, attention turns to China's official PMI on September 30, as well as US PCE and non-farm payrolls data during the National Day holiday—with China's market closed for seven days...
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China (GACC), China's total primary aluminium imports reached 185,500 tonnes in August 2026, down 14.65 per cent year-on-year but up 0.16 per cent month-on-month. Total imports for January-August amounted to 1.66 million tonnes, a decrease of 3.41 per cent year-on-year. The 14.65 per cent year-on-year decline in August imports, coupled with a nearly flat month-on-month performance, indicates that imports have not collapsed but rather maintained a steady inflow. In August, China's total primary aluminium exports stood at 21,900 tonnes, down 14.53 per cent year-on-year and 30.48 per cent month-on-month. Cumulative exports for January-August totalled 167,500 tonnes, up 9.26 per cent year-on-year....
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According to a Reuters report, China’s primary aluminium production fell to its lowest level in September since May. This is a consecutive fall for a second month in September attributed to weaker aluminium prices and higher input costs. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics released on Friday, China produced 2.79 million tonnes of aluminium last month, down 1.8 per cent from 2.84 million tonnes in August, but up 7.1 per cent YoY. September has one day lesser than in August and considering that, Reuters’ calculations determined China produced around 93,000 tonnes of primary aluminium daily in September. In the first nine months of 2018, China produced 25.0 million tonnes of aluminium, a rise of 4.2 per cent from YTD 2017. Primary Aluminium prices on the Shanghai Futures...
China's primary aluminium supply is expected to grow at 4.1% in 2019, while consumption is likely to grow at a slower pace of 3%, said Liu Xiaolei, SMM senior analyst. In 2018, primary aluminium capacity with higher costs ran in losses, driven by cash flow issues and falling aluminium prices. This prompted some smelters to suspend operation, to postpone the commissioning of new capacity or to commission less capacity, and supply shrank as a result. Output of primary aluminium in 2018 is estimated to grow 1.9% compared to 2017, Liu told the delegates in Shanghai on October 19 at an annual pricing conference organised by SMM. Newly-commissioned capacity would amount to 3.3 million mt in 2018, some 1 million mt less than estimated at the beginning of the year, showed SMM data. Output grew at...
A sharp decline in US existing home sales in September weakened the US dollar before the weekend. Both LME and SHFE base metals ended in mixed performance on Friday night. LME aluminium lost 0.25%. As the US dollar strengthened, LME aluminium also traded weakly last Friday night as it registered the third consecutive trading day of decline to settle at US$2,006.50 per tonne with support from the US$2,000 per tonne level. We see it hovering at US$1,950-2,020 per tonne today. As on October 19, Friday, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2022.50 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2022.50 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2023 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2024 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2070 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price...
Social inventories of primary aluminium inventories across eight consumption areas in China, including SHFE warrants, declined by some 27,000 tonnes from Thursday October 18 to stand at 1.556 million tonnes as of Monday October 22, Shanghai Metals Market data showed. Limited cargoes arrived in social warehouses over the weekend and this accounted for the decline in stocks. In some of the Chinese cities like Wuxi and Gongyi, Shanghai and Nanhai, Guangdong the inventories declined on the week. In Wuxi and Jiangsu, the inventory stood at 667,000 tonnes; in Shanghai and Nanhai, Guangdong, the inventory came in at 348,000 tonnes and 240,000 tonnes respectively. In Gongyi, Henan, the inventory stood at 102,000 tonnes. The current inventory status in the major Chinese cities is as follows: After...
Inventories of aluminium billet decreases across all the major consumption areas in China as downstream consumers restocked raw materials, Shanghai Metals Market found. Stocks of 6063 aluminium billet stood at 150,000 tonne on Thursday October 18, down by some 2,000 tonnes. The aluminium billet inventory in Foshan, Guandong stood at 81,300 tonnes; while that in Wuxi, Jiangsu at 21,800 tonnes. For more details, refer to the chart below. The aluminium alloys (ADC12) spot price remained unchanged on October 19, 2018. The average prices are expected to range between RMB 15400 per tonne and RMB 15600 per tonne. Aluminium alloys (A356) price continued their downward trend. On October 19, aluminium alloys (A356) price dropped by RMB 50 per tonne to RMB 14750 per tonne. The average prices are...
Norway, the European Union and several other countries asked the World Trade Organization (WTO) on Thursday to set up a dispute resolution panel to address U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminium. The United States imposed a 25 percent duty on steel imports and a 10 percent tariff on aluminium imports, effective from March 23 in what U.S. President Donald Trump said was a move to protect U.S. metal makers. "We believe that additional U.S. duty on steel and aluminium is contrary to WTO rules," Norwegian Foreign Minister Ine Eriksen Soereide said in a statement. "Therefore, together with the EU and several others, we asked today the WTO to establish a dispute resolution panel on the U.S. additional duty," she said. Norway said initial consultations with the United States had not led to an...
The US dollar index traded at a week-high on Thursday as US Treasury yields traded near multiyear highs, on expectations of further interest rate hikes. That came despite US President Donald Trump's view that interest rate hikes have already gone too far. LME base metals ended in negative territory across the board on Thursday. While LME aluminium opened higher on Thursday, it fell to close near day-lows of US$2,008 per tonne, a new low in a month. It is likely to remain weak today with a trading range of US$2,000-2,030 per tonne. As on October 18, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2007 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2007.50 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2012 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2012.50 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands...
As reported by Shanghai Metals Market, social inventories of primary aluminium inventories across eight consumption areas in China, including SHFE warrants, declined by some 30,000 tonnes from Thursday October 11 to stand at 1.583 million tonnes as of Thursday October 18.The decline week-on-week exceeds stocks built over the National Day holiday, indicating continued downstream purchases. In some of the Chinese cities like Wuxi and Gongyi, the inventories declined significantly on the week. In Wuxi and Jiangsu, the inventory stood at 673,000 tonnes; in Shanghai and Nanhai, Guangdong, the inventory came in at 354,000 tonnes and 250,000 tonnes respectively. In Gongyi, Henan, the inventory stood at 107,000 tonnes. The current inventory status in the major Chinese cities is as follows:...
Alcoa Corporation, a global leader in bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products, reported third quarter 2018 results and announced a $200 million common stock repurchase program as part of the Company’s 2018 capital allocation framework. In the third quarter of 2018, Alcoa also used $194 million in available cash to further reduce its net pension liability and debt and finished the quarter with a cash balance of $1.0 billion on September 30, 2018. This year, the Company has reduced its net pension and OPEB liability to $2.2 billion as of September 30, down from $3.5 billion at year-end 2017. “Today’s stock buyback announcement, our smaller net pension and OPEB liability, and our results since launching Alcoa Corporation nearly two years ago all point to the success of our strategic...
The US dollar gained on Wednesday as stocks dipped, boosting demand for safe haven currencies, after the Federal Reserve released minutes from its September meeting. LME base metals, except for zinc, ended in negative territory across the board on Wednesday. An increase of 85,725 tonnes in LME inventory, following a rise of 70,775 tonnes in the previous day, dragged the contract to an intraday low of US$2,015 per tonne. Aluminium slipped 0.7% to finally close at US$ 2018 per tonne on October 17 from US$ 2022 per tonne on Tuesday, October 16. Given the strong dollar, LME aluminium is likely to trade under pressure today between US$2,010-2,040 per tonne. As on October 17, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2017.50 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2018 per...
Both LME and SHFE base metals ended in mixed performance overnight. Benchmark aluminium price on London Metal Exchange decreased to close at US$2022 per tonne on Tuesday, October 16, down from the previous day’s close at US$ 2028 per tonne. LME aluminium fluctuated on Tuesday but tumbled to a low of US$2,014 per tonne as LME inventories gained 70,775 tonne, the greatest gain among nonferrous metals. SMM expects it to trade at US$2,020-2,060 per tonne today. As on October 16, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2021 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2022 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2023.50 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2024 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2075 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2080 per tonne....
According to the data by Shanghai Metals Market, the A00 aluminium ingot price in China once again sees a growth today, on October 17, from RMB 14190 per tonne, as on the previous day, to RMB 14290 per tonne. This marks an increase by RMB 100 per tonne. The average prices are expected to range between RMB 14270 per tonne and RMB 14310 per tonne, with spot discounts to settle at RMB 70 per tonne to RMB 30 per tonne. This rise in aluminium ingot price for the past two days in a row has touched all the major markets in China, SMM found. The markets in the east, south, have seen a rise by RMB 100 per tonne each while the market in the north, has witnessed a price hike by RMB 90. While in the east, the ingot price today is hovering at RMB 14275 per tonne; in the south and north, the prices are...
Alba’s Line 6 Expansion Project (Line 6 Smelter and Power Expansion Project) is brimming with all kinds of activities as the company progresses towards achieving the First Hot Metal on 01 January 2019, said the Chairman of Alba’s Board of Directors, Shaikh Daij Bin Salman Bin Daij Al Khalifa during a meeting with Bechtel Group Inc.’s delegation held today at Alba, Tuesday 16 October 2018. The Bechtel delegation comprised the President and Chief Operating Officer of Bechtel Group Inc.-Jack Futcher, Regional President of Europe and Middle East - Stuart Jones, Bechtel’s Line 6 Director - Denis Garrity and other officials from Bechtel leadership team. Alba’s Chief Executive Officer Tim Murray, Deputy Chief Executive Officer Ali Al Baqali, Chief Admin Officer Waleed Tamimi, Shawqi Al Hashimi...
Rio Tinto reported a slight drop in aluminium production in third quarter in Q3 2018. Aluminium production was one per cent lower than the corresponding period of 2017, due to an ongoing lock-out at the non-managed Becancour smelter, which began on 11 January 2018. Aluminium production stood at 0.9 million tonnes. Excluding this impact, aluminium production for the third quarter was two per cent higher than the same period of 2017, reflecting continued productivity creep. Rio Tinto chief executive J-S Jacques said “We have delivered consistent operational performance in the third quarter, highlighted by strong production from the Group’s copper assets. We continue to pursue all opportunities to improve productivity and drive enhanced cash flow generation. This, combined with the...
LME base metals ended mixed on Monday. After a gain on Friday to US$ 2045 per tonne, LME aluminium closed lower at US$ 2028 per tonne on Monday October 15. The metal fluctuated to end Monday at US$2,033 per tonne. Shanghai Metals Market analyses that LME aluminium will trade at US$2,020-2,060 per tonne range on Tuesday, October 16. As on October 15, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2027.50per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2028 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2030 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2031 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2082 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2087 per tonne. The LME aluminium opening stock dropped further to 926100 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 613575 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants...
After a continuous fall for past four days in a row, the A00 aluminium ingot price in China today, on October 16, has recorded a hike by RMB 90 per tonne to stand at RMB 14190 per tonne, Shanghai Metals Market found. The average prices are expected to range between RMB 14170 per tonne and RMB 14210 per tonne, with spot discounts to settle at RMB 70 per tonne to RMB 30 per tonne. The major markets including the east, south, and north have displayed no exception either. In the east, the price has climbed from RMB 14100 per tonne on October 15 to RMB 14175 per tonne on October 16, registering a growth of RMB 75 per tonne. In the south and north, on the other hand, the prices have jumped from RMB 14130 per tonne on October 15 to RMB 14240 per tonne today and from RMB 14110 per tonne to RMB...
Aluminium consumption in India may reportedly double to 7.2 million tonnes in the next five years from the existing level of 3.6 million tonnes. This makes important to focus on downstream aluminium products to tackle the threat of growing imports. Mr. Tapan Kumar Chand, CMD of Nalco said this while addressing the National Aluminium Network Meet 2018, at New Delhi. He also mentioned that India’s import of downstream aluminium products may rise to around US$ 5 million in case no importance is given to it. He further added: “Moreover, Indian aluminium industry is at the high end of cost curve for production; hence, the need to sustain and increase its margin by producing value-added and high-end downstream products.” In addition, Mr. Chand underscored the need for the promotion of...
According to the global export-import data, Turkey’s aluminium import, including both alloy and non-alloy, is forecast to see a drop in 2018 after a sweeping rise in the last year. In 2017, Turkey had imported a total amount of 2,158,883 tonnes of primary aluminium, up 105 per cent from 1,051,214 tonnes in 2016. But this year, the country’s estimated volume of aluminium import is likely to drop 36 per cent to 1,378,802 tonnes than the previous year. However, compared to 2016, the volume of aluminium import is expected to stand higher by 31 per cent. Consequently, with the drop in import volume, Turkey’s aluminium import cost is also likely to stand down this year. In 2017, the import cost was at US$ 4545 million, after rising 145 per cent from US$ 1854 million in 2016. But this year, the...
