1. Macro perspective The US-Iran conflict entered its second week. After the escort coalition intervened, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz partially recovered, but war risk insurance rates remained elevated. Brent crude pulled back from a high of USD 101 to consolidate around USD 95, with energy cost support weakening from earlier levels but not yet fading. The US Fed delivered a 25bp rate hike at its September FOMC meeting, and the dot plot indicated one more hike may still occur this year. Chair Warsh struck a hawkish tone in his post-meeting remarks, and the US dollar index held at a 13-month high. Next week, attention turns to China's official PMI on September 30, as well as US PCE and non-farm payrolls data during the National Day holiday—with China's market closed for seven days...
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China (GACC), China's total primary aluminium imports reached 185,500 tonnes in August 2026, down 14.65 per cent year-on-year but up 0.16 per cent month-on-month. Total imports for January-August amounted to 1.66 million tonnes, a decrease of 3.41 per cent year-on-year. The 14.65 per cent year-on-year decline in August imports, coupled with a nearly flat month-on-month performance, indicates that imports have not collapsed but rather maintained a steady inflow. In August, China's total primary aluminium exports stood at 21,900 tonnes, down 14.53 per cent year-on-year and 30.48 per cent month-on-month. Cumulative exports for January-August totalled 167,500 tonnes, up 9.26 per cent year-on-year....
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The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has further extended the expiration date of certain general licenses related to EN+ Group plc (EN+) and United Company RUSAL PLC (RUSAL) until December 12, 2018. Last month, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) had extended the expiration date from 23 October 2018 to 12 November 2018. General Licenses 13E, 14B, and 16B amend their previous versions by extending the expiration date from November 12, 2018, to December 12, 2018, for transactions related to the companies and their subsidiaries. “EN+ and RUSAL have approached the U.S. Government about substantial corporate governance changes that could potentially result in significant changes in control. As the review of...
According to Bahrain local media report, Bahrain might get an exemption from US import tariffs on aluminium and steel. The appeal submission has been initiated and high-level discussions would continue to take place to explore the possibility for Bahrain to receive an exemption. Bahrain was also imposed 25 per cent tariffs on steel and 10 per cent tariffs on aluminium. Responding to a question from The Daly Tribune, Bahrain, John J Sullivan US Deputy Secretary of State said that the negotiations would continue towards it. According to him, the subject of steel and aluminium tariffs were discussed in detail during his meeting with business leaders and government officials in Bahrain. “We have had discussions about the steel and aluminium tariffs that were imposed. I understand its impact...
The dollar edged up on Friday, reflecting investor confidence in the US economy, despite criticism by President Donald Trump of the Federal Reserve and a sell-off in US equities. LME base metals ended mixed on Friday. LME aluminium contract gained after three consecutive falls and closed the day’s trading at US$ 2045 per tonne on Friday, October 12. LME aluminium retreated from early highs to close at US$2,030.5 per tonne overnight. Shanghai Metals Market expects LME aluminium to trade at US$2,010-2,050 per tonne today. The US Treasury announced on Friday that it would push back until December 12, 2018 a deadline to wind up contracts and business with Rusal, from the previous date of November 12. This is likely to weigh on aluminium prices today. As on October 11, LME aluminium cash (bid)...
According to the data by Shanghai Metals Market, A00 aluminium ingot price in China has recorded a plunge today, on October 15, by RMB 70 per tonne to stand at RMB 14080 per tonne to RMB 14120 per tonne. This marks a drop in ingot price for the past 4 days in a row. After a hike on October 9 to RMB 14480 per tonne, the ingot price has been registering a fall since Wednesday, October 10. The first plunge was by RMB 40 per tonne, followed by RMB 210 per tonne on October 11 and then by RMB 20 and RMB 70 per tonne on October 12 and 15, respectively. Today, the average prices are expected to range between RMB 14080 per tonne and RMB 14120 per tonne, with spot discounts to settle at RMB 30 per tonne to RMB 10 per tonne. In the east and south, the A00 aluminium ingot prices have also dropped by...
Vedanta Resources has published production results for the second quarter and half year ended 30th September 2018. The company reported record quarterly aluminium production at 494,000 tonnes in Q2 FY2019, registering a growth of 23% YoY and 3% higher QoQ. This was attributed to production ramp up at the Jharsuguda-I smelter which was completed in Q3 FY2018 and ongoing ramp-up of Jharsuguda II smelter. At Jharsuguda II, Line 3 has progressively ramped up with 303 out of 336 pots operational by quarter end as compared to 245 pots at the end of Q1 FY2019. Line 4 continues to be under evaluation. Stabilised aluminium production which excludes trial run production stood at 476,000 tonnes in Q2 FY2019. In H1 FY2019, aluminium production increased 30% YoY to 976,000 tonnes. The growth was...
The UAE, one of the top importers of petcoke, is set to witness a rise in its total petcoke import in 2018. The country’s petcoke imports will grow 22 per cent on a yearly basis to reach 781,948 tonnes in 2018. In 2017, petcoke import totalled 638992 tonnes, down 13 per cent from the previous year, according to recent estimates. Petcoke or petroleum coke, a by-product of the oil refining process, is a significant fuel for the power generation and aluminium smelting industries. Calcined petcoke, which is obtained by further heat-treating petroleum coke, is used to manufacture anode used in the electrolysis reduction process of aluminium smelting.The aluminium production process requires around half a tonne of carbon for every tonne of metal produced. According to global import-export data,...
The dollar fell to low in two weeks on Thursday against a basket of currencies as traders pared greenback holdings on lower US Treasury yields and further losses on Wall Street. A weaker-than-forecast rise in US consumer prices in September also reduced bets for a faster pace of interest rate. LME aluminium continued downward trend and closed at US$ 2024 per tonne on Thursday October 11. The contract fluctuated to a six-day losing streak and notched a new low in three weeks on Thursday. Its weekly KDJ lines expanded downwards but support remained at US$2,000 per tonne. The contract is likely to trade at US$2,010-2,050 per tonne today. As on October 11, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2023.50 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2024 per tonne; 3-months bid...
Century Aluminum of South Carolina, Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Century Aluminum Company, announced that the company has signed a two- year extension of its contract with South Carolina's state-owned electricity provider Santee Cooper. The agreement will allow the Goose Creek, SC plant to continue to operate at half capacity. The US-based aluminium manufacturer said in its press release that the deal with Santee Cooper has a term through December 31, 2020, but can be terminated by Mt. Holly on 120 days' notice. “Under this agreement, Santee Cooper will continue to service 25% of the Mt. Holly load at a standard cost-based industrial rate. The remaining 75% of the power required to serve Mt. Holly is expected to be sourced from a third-party supplier at market prices that are tied...
As reported by Shanghai Metals Market, primary aluminium inventories across eight consumption areas in China, including SHFE warrants, rose by some 23,000 tonnes from Thursday September 27 and 9,000 tonnes from Monday October 8 to stand at 1.613 million tonnes as of Thursday October 11.China’s aluminium inventories grew in the first week after the National day holiday as shipments delivered during the break arrived at warehouses. In Wuxi and Jiangsu, the inventory stood at 691,000 tonnes; in Shanghai and Nanhai, Guangdong, the inventory came in at 355,000 tonnes and 249,000 tonnes respectively. The current inventory status in the major Chinese cities is as follows: Average A00 aluminium Ingot price plunged by RMB 210 per tonne to RMB 14190 per tonne on Thursday, 11 October 2018. The...
Rio Tinto, an Anglo-Australian multinational and one of the world's largest metals and mining corporations, is reportedly close to recommencing a sale process of its aluminium plant in Iceland, along with some aluminium assets. The aluminium plant in Iceland has been valued at around US$350 million, two sources familiar with the matter reported. The assets, on the other hand, include a 53 per cent stake in a Dutch anode facility and 50 per cent of the shares in a Swedish aluminium fluoride plant, which are ingredients in aluminium production, the sources added. The two sources even intimidated that French investment bank Natixis is helping Rio with the sale. However, Rio Tinto declined to comment on the news and Natixis was not immediately available to make any statement. Norwegian...
The euro and pound rose on Wednesday, underpinned by optimism for a Brexit deal, while the dollar lost ground against a basket of currencies even as US bond yields hovered at multi-year peaks. LME base metals, except for tin, fell across the board on Wednesday. LME aluminium fluctuated and posted a five-day losing streak on Wednesday with an extended MACD green line. A relatively firm dollar, 50% capacity resumption of capacity at Hydro's Alunorte alumina refinery and dips in alumina prices overseas accounted for the recent weakness in LME aluminium. Australian alumina FOB price dropped to US$ 550 per tonne today from US$ 600 per tonne on October 9. The aluminium contract is expected to trade at US$2,000-2,060 per tonne today. As on October 10, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$...
The Supreme Court has imposed restrictions on the import of petroleum coke or petcoke by domestic aluminium and calciner industries. A bench headed by Justice Madan B. Lokur has restricted import limit at 0.5 million tonnes and 1.4 million tonnes per year. Earlier, the apex court had eased its ban on use of petcoke in cement and limestone, calcium carbide and gasification industries. Advocate Aparajita Singh who appeared for the Environment Pollution Control Authority (EPCA) requested the apex court to allow petcoke import by the aluminium and calcier industries for use as feedstock. "The calciner industry should be allowed to import pet coke as its industry uses it for feedstock and not for fuel. For aluminium industry, EPCA recommended that the industry can be allowed to import calcined...
After it touched a seven-week high, the US dollar dipped on Tuesday when US bond yields declined. The dollar also fell as the British pound rose against it. LME base metals ended mixed overnight. LME aluminium fell to a week-low during yesterday’s trading closing at US$ 2031.50 per tonne. Then the contract recovered some losses overnight. The aluminium cash contract registered a three-day losing streak on Tuesday on the dollar's strength and on news of restarting of alumina operations at Alunorte. It is expected to trade at US$2,040-2,080 per tonne today. As on October 9, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2031 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2031.50 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2040 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2040.50 per tonne;...
Shanghai Metals Market found that spot aluminium discounts widened across all major Chinese markets on Tuesday, October 9, compared to the previous day. Though sellers continued to hold offers firm and traders became more willing to purchase for long-term contracts yet spot aluminium discounts did not lay behind from recording a widened range. The SHFE contract for October delivery traded range-bound in the morning. Most spot transactions in Shanghai were done at RMB 14460 per tonne to RMB 14470 per tonne, with discounts at RMB 40 to RMB 30 per tonne against the October contract. In the previous day, i.e. on Monday, October 8, the discounts were found at RMB 30 per tonne to RMB 20 per tonne. In Wuxi and Hangzhou, on the other hand, transactions were seen at RMB 14460 per tonne to RMB...
Executive board member of German aluminium producer Trimet Aluminium, Thomas Reuther said that he expects strong aluminium demand in 2019. However, forecast continues to remain difficult due to the global impact of U.S. import duties, according to him. He pointed towards higher alumina price as a concern for the aluminium industry. Trimet, according to him, has not imported aluminium scrap from the U.S. despite the expectations that U.S. will export more scrap to Europe to compensate loss of export to China. "I expect global demand for aluminium to increase in 2019," Reuther said in an interview during the LME week. "But the customs duties first imposed by the U.S. are having an impact on trade flows, so demand in regional markets is more difficult to forecast." He said the scrap supply...
Indian aluminium makers including Hindalco Industries and Vedanta Ltd. are reportedly boosting sales to Japan amid the United States’ lofty import tariffs and sanctions against Rusal. Usually, Japan, being a quality concerned consumer, never regarded the products from India a high enough quality. They rather preferred top-tiers producers like Rio Tinto, Alcoa, and South32 as well as United Company Rusal. But in the background of US sanctions and tariffs, Japan reportedly secured 59,545 tonnes of aluminium ingot in the eight months of 2018, double a year ago, while material from Russia fell 21 per cent to 175,694 tonnes, Japanese trade data showed. "Because of the sanctions, consumers would like to ensure some security of supply, so they'd like to prefer multiple suppliers instead of one...
Shanghai Metals Market research found stocks across local warehouses in south China grew yesterday, October 8, after a week-long National Day holiday, as spot aluminium sellers showed keen interest to offload cargoes. SMM data as of Monday showed the primary aluminium stocks in Nanhai, Guangdong increased by 36,000 tonnes or by 17.7 per cent from Thursday, September 27, marking the largest gain among the eight major consumption areas. In Guangdong, most of the spot transactions were heard at RMB 14,340 per tonne to RMB 14360 per tonne, with Guangdong-Shanghai spread at RMB 70 per tonne. Sellers in eastern markets, however, held their offers firm as limited cargoes arrived at the local warehouses during the break. Post-holiday restocking enthusiasm among downstream consumers was found mild...
The US dollar retained its recent gains overnight on upbeat domestic economic data. The euro fell to a seven-week low against the dollar on Monday as Italy. The Yuan weakened as Beijing's move to spur lending failed to ease concern about economic growth. LME aluminium traded under pressure on Monday on news that Norsk Hydro obtained a key permit to restart its Alunorte refinery at half of its capacity. A firm US dollar also kept LME aluminium from climbing, on its strong SHFE counterpart. The contract closed Monday’s trading at US$ 2073.50 per tonne. Shanghai Metals Market expects it to trade at US$2,050-2,090 per tonne today. As on October 8, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2073 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2073.50 per tonne; 3-months bid price...
