1. Macro perspective The US-Iran conflict entered its second week. After the escort coalition intervened, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz partially recovered, but war risk insurance rates remained elevated. Brent crude pulled back from a high of USD 101 to consolidate around USD 95, with energy cost support weakening from earlier levels but not yet fading. The US Fed delivered a 25bp rate hike at its September FOMC meeting, and the dot plot indicated one more hike may still occur this year. Chair Warsh struck a hawkish tone in his post-meeting remarks, and the US dollar index held at a 13-month high. Next week, attention turns to China's official PMI on September 30, as well as US PCE and non-farm payrolls data during the National Day holiday—with China's market closed for seven days...
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China (GACC), China's total primary aluminium imports reached 185,500 tonnes in August 2026, down 14.65 per cent year-on-year but up 0.16 per cent month-on-month. Total imports for January-August amounted to 1.66 million tonnes, a decrease of 3.41 per cent year-on-year. The 14.65 per cent year-on-year decline in August imports, coupled with a nearly flat month-on-month performance, indicates that imports have not collapsed but rather maintained a steady inflow. In August, China's total primary aluminium exports stood at 21,900 tonnes, down 14.53 per cent year-on-year and 30.48 per cent month-on-month. Cumulative exports for January-August totalled 167,500 tonnes, up 9.26 per cent year-on-year....
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A few hours to go to AlCircle’s first Webinar - “Path to A Virtual Aluminium Ecosystem”, scheduled today, on 11-Dec-18, at 3 PM (GMT)!!! The presentation intends to put across and answer the following questions: What does “A Virtual Aluminium Ecosystem” means? How would individuals benefit from it? Which are the current digital tools available to individuals? How would businesses benefit from it? Which are the current digital tools available to business houses? What role will digital technologies (such as Analytics, Artificial Intelligence & IoT) play in the Aluminium Industry? As a responsible business & information platform for the aluminium value chain, AlCircle would like to create awareness about the relevance of digital technology in the aluminium sector and how it can be used to...
The greenback recovered to 97 following its steepest weekly drop in three months last week. LME base metals ended in negative territory across the board overnight. Aluminium slid over 0.8%. SHFE base metals also traded lower across the board overnight. Aluminium fell close to 0.3%. LME aluminium started the week lower than last closing at US$ 1951per tonne. The aluminium contract then rebounded to close at US$1,963 per tonne, near the 20-day moving average on Monday after it slumped to a low of US$1,935 per tonne on gains in the US dollar. LME aluminium is expected to continue to hover among moving averages and to trade at US$1,940-1,955 per tonne today. As on December 10, Monday, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1950 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1951...
According to an update from Shanghai Metals Market, social inventories of primary aluminium continued to extend its fall across eight consumption areas in China, including SHFE warrants, and stood at 1.32 million tonnes, as of Monday, December 10. This marked a decline by some 35,000 tonnes from Thursday, December 6. Lower arrivals to social warehouses and greater deliveries departing extended declines in inventories, SMM learned. In Wuxi and Jiangsu, the inventories declined some 16,000 tonnes over the weekend ended on December 10, while in Shanghai, Nanhai and Guangdong, Gongyi and Henan, and Hangzhou and Zhejiang, the inventories dipped by some 1,000 tonnes, 9,000 tonnes, 7,000 tonnes, and 3,000 tonnes respectively. The below chart shows the current status of primary aluminium...
China Customs data found that yuan’s depreciation, as well as trade uncertainty in the overseas market demand, prompted firms to rush out shipments and drove up unwrought aluminium and aluminium products exports in November 2018. Per the data, China exported 536,000 tonnes of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products in November, up some 54,000 tonnes from October. This means China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium products exports in October stood at 482,000 tonnes. Hence, China’s November aluminium exports registered a growth of 11 per cent month-on-month. This month-on-month increase in exports of aluminium came after three consecutive months of declines. In the same period last year, China had exported around 316,204 tonnes of aluminium, which means this year in November, the...
The US dollar fell on Friday after the release of weaker-than-expected monthly job report. LME and SHFE base metals ended in the black on Friday night. LME aluminium jumped over 1% SHFE aluminium rose 0.55%. After dropping to US$ 1945 per tonne on Thursday December 6, LME aluminium recovered the losses and closed at US$ 1962 per tonne on Friday. Then the contract jumped past the 40-day moving average to a high of US$1,977 per tonne on Friday night after the US dollar slid. It closed at US$1,963 tonne, near the five-day moving average. We expect it to continue to move among moving averages with a trading range of US$1,945-1,970 per tonne today. As on December 7, Friday, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1961 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1962 per tonne;...
After four consecutive drops since the beginning of the month, the A00 aluminium ingot price has rebounded today, on December 10, and jumped from RMB 13,500 per tonne, as of December 7, to RMB 13,590 per tonne, Shanghai Metals Market found. This marks a growth by RMB 90 per tonne. The average prices are expected to range between RMB 13,570 per tonne to RMB 13,610 per tonne, with spot discount remaining the same at RMB 20 per tonne. As the increase in ingot prices have touched all the major markets in China, markets in the east -Wuxi have recorded a growth of ingot price by RMB 105 per tonne to stand at RMB 13,595 per tonne and that in Hang Zhou have registered a rise by RMB 100 per tonne to clock at RMB 13,625 per tonne. The ingot prices in the south and north, on the other hand, have...
China’s primary aluminium production for the month of November 2018 stood at nearly 2.96 million tonnes, an increase of 1.8 per cent from a year ago. However, daily average production in November dropped 1.8% month on month to 99,000 tonnes, according to the data shared by Shanghai Metals Market. As of the end of November, there were about 36 million tonnes of primary aluminium capacity in operation across China, an increase of 645,000 tonnes Year on Year. Operating rates dipped 2.9 percentage points from a month ago 85.7% in November. Losses across aluminium smelters resulted in their capacity cuts, at around 2.3 million tonnes currently. There is another 460,000 tonnes of capacity facing cutbacks. New capacity commissioned at slower paces, with expanded capacity in Inner Mongolia,...
The US dollar weakened against major peers on Thursday amid weakening economic data and heightened market volatility. Most LME and SHFE base metals ended in negative territory overnight. LME aluminium dropped 1.6%. SHFE aluminium slipped close to 0.9%. LME aluminium dropped further from last closing to close at US$ 1945 per tonne on Thursday December 6. After a negative open, LME aluminium extended its decline on Thursday and closed at US$1,941 per tonne at night. This forced it to relinquish most gains it had made since last Friday. We expect it to remain weak today with a trading range of US$1,920-1,960 per tonne. As on December 6, Thursday, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1943 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1945 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands...
The A00 aluminium ingot price seems to have decided to be on the downside, according to Shanghai Metals Market. Even continued destocking in social inventories of primary aluminium over the past weeks and improved purchasing enthusiasm among downstream consumers for spot primary aluminium (like it was yesterday in the east China) are failing to pull the ingot price up, except in the interim periods. Today, on December 7, the ingot price has further extended its plunge by RMB 60 per tonne to stand at RMB 13,500 per tonne, Shanghai Metals Market found. The average prices are expected to range between RMB 13,480 per tonne and RMB 13,520 per tonne, with spot discounts to settle at RMB 20 per tonne. This marks a fourth consecutive drop in A00 aluminium ingot price in China since the month...
After cutting prices of aluminium ingots seven times in a row, Vedanta Ltd has raised rates of these products by nearly 3% with effect from December 4. After the increase, the price for Vedanta aluminium ingot stands at INR 157,000 (USD 2215) per tonne, up from INR 152,750 (USD 2155) per tonne on December 1. With today’s hike, rates of these products are at two-weeks high. Most aluminium producers in India have raised product prices following the rise in global aluminium price in London Metal Exchange after the G20 summit where USA signed a new trade agreement with Canada and Mexico and China and USA agreed upon a 90 days truce on trade war while further negotiations are on. Even after the price hike on December 4, rates of these products are down 5-6% for the quarter. The three-month...
Shanghai Metals Market research found purchasing enthusiasm among aluminium downstream consumers across east-China spot markets improved on Thursday, December 5, from a day earlier as aluminium prices fell. The SHFE December contract plunged on Thursday morning. In Shanghai, spot discounts were heard at RMB 30 per tonne to RMB 20 per tonne against the SHFE 1812 contract, narrower than RMB 50 per tonne to RMB 40 per tonne in the previous day. In Shanghai and Wuxi, spot transactions were mostly done at RMB 13,550 per tonne to RMB 13,570 per tonne while that in Hangzhou at RMB 13,600 per tonne to RMB 13,620 per tonne. The prices were over RMB 90 per tonne lower than the previous day. However, the losses in prices could not subdue the willingness of the sellers in eastern markets to let go...
According to a report, Rio Tinto’s Potline 4 at New Zealand Aluminium Smelter (NZAS), at Tiwai Point on the South Island, officially reopened by the country’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. Rio Tinto, along with joint venture partner Sumitomo Chemical Company, invested around US$4.1 million this year to upgrade and restart the potline, adding 31,000 tonnes of production capacity. Rio owns 79.36 per cent of NZAS while Sumitomo owns the rest. Rio Tinto Aluminium chief operating officer Pacific Operations Kellie Parker said: “We are proud the Prime Minister has joined us to mark this important milestone for the team at Tiwai Point and the country’s manufacturing sector.” Per the company’s anticipation, the restarting of the potline will increase the smelter’s production capacity by almost 10...
Vigeo Eiris which rates global companies with the most advanced practice in sustainable development has listed UC RUSAL, one of the leading global aluminium producers, among the top 100 Best Emerging Markets performers. Vigeo Eiris is one of the largest international rating agencies that reviews organisations based on their sustainable developments. The companies are scored on the basis of the best practises in the areas of human rights, environmental protection, human capital, corporate governance, business ethics and contributions to social and economic development in the fields in which they operate. The agency analysed 855 companies from 35 industries while choosing the top 100 companies in the ranking. The top-100 companies are from 17 countries and belong to 22 different sectors. As...
As reported by Shanghai Metals Market,, 6063 aluminium billet inventories across five major consumption areas in China dipped some 3,100 tonnes over the weekend ended on Thursday, December 6, to stand at 117,900 tonnes. Deliveries from warehouses picked up after a decline, SMM learned. This came after slow downstream demand grew stocks by 3,400 tonnes on Thursday, November 29. In Foshan, Guangdong and Wuxi, Jiangsu, the inventories dropped by some 1,800 tonnes and 3,600 tonnes to stand at 67,400 tonnes and 13,900 tonnes respectively. Inventories in Huzhou, Zhejiang, on the other hand, rose by around 3,000 tonnes and stood at 6,500 tonnes. For more details, refer to the chart below: Aluminium alloys (ADC12) price remained unchanged at average RMB 15,200 per tonne. The average price is...
The US dollar index recovered to 97 on Wednesday as support from the stronger euro and yen faded. Both LME and SHFE base metals ended in mixed territory overnight. LME aluminium inched up 0.15% while SHFE aluminium fell 0.33%. LME aluminium dropped from the quick high of US$ 1985 per tonne to US$1966.50 per tonne yesterday. However, LME aluminium outperformed its SHFE counterpart overnight and traded marginally higher at US$1,973 per tonne. It is expected to trade at US$1,950-1,980 per tonne today. As on December 5, Wednesday, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1966 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1966.50 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 1970 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 1970.50 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2025 per tonne,...
According to the latest update by Shanghai Metals Market, today, on December 5, traded prices of spot aluminium across eastern markets remained unchanged from the previous day and transactions between traders remained brisk. The SHFE 1812 contract traded rangebound in morning trades. Spot discounts in Shanghai, were heard at RMB50-40 per tonne, flat from Tuesday. In Shanghai and Wuxi, most transactions were heard at RMB 13,650 per tonne to RMB 13,660 per tonne while that in Hangzhou at RMB 13,680 per tonne to RMB 13,700 per tonne. Most transactions in Guangdong were heard at RMB13,730-13,750 per tonne , with Guangdong – Shanghai spread at RMB80 per tonne. SMM found aluminium prices across China markets would likely remain downside in the remaining days of the year as demand weakens and...
According to banking sources, Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) is looking to potentially refinance up to US$6.7 billion of its debt. EGA, a merger entity of Dubai Aluminium (Dubal) and Abu Dhabi’s Emirates Aluminium is jointly owned by Abu Dhabi investment fund Mubadala and state company Investment Corporation of Dubai. Dubal is still an entity within EGA that can borrow money independently. According to the data from LPC, a fixed income news service that is part of Refinitiv, EGA’s debt includes a US$4.9 billion seven-year loan, which was declared underwritten and signed by seven banks in March 2016, and a $1.8 billion seven-year loan signed by Dubal in January 2015. According to a banker the refinancing deal will pay back some or the entire 2016 loan, and amend and extend some of its...
India’s and Switzerland’s second request to set up a World Trade Organisation (WTO) panel, to examine its complaint against additional duties imposed by the US on imports of certain aluminium and steel products, has been approved by the Dispute Settlement Body (DSB). “Nine dispute panels have now been established by the DSB to rule on the US tariffs,” according to a Geneva-based official. India had asked to establish panel after it failed to resolve the issue through a bilateral consultation process with the US under the dispute settlement mechanism of the WTO. India had claimed imposition of high US import duties on Indian aluminium and steel products impacted its exports. Moreover, the US move was also not in compliance with the global trade norms. The WTO's Dispute Settlement Body...
