
According to the Shanghai Metals Market, China’s aluminium production in August (31 calendar days) amounted to 3.488 million tonnes, reflecting a steady trend compared to 3.5 million tonnes in the previous month and 8.16 per cent higher than in a year ago. The total output during January-September stood at 26.547 million tonnes, an increase of 2.2 per cent from the corresponding period of the last year.

The daily average production of the metal was 112,500 tonnes across China in August’22 - majorly unchanged from 112,900 tonnes in July. This stable production could be accredited to steady product resumptions at companies like Gansu Liancheng, Guangxi Jili Baikuang, and Guangxi Investment Group Yinhai.
According to SMM, 380,000 tonnes of capacity owned by Gansu Liancheng resumed, while new capacity of Gansu Zhongrui came into operation. But on the other hand, power crisis in Sichuan increased, shutting down aluminium smelters completely, whereby the output fell by about 920,000 tonnes leaving 30,000 tonnes of capacity in operation.
Nonetheless, SMM expects China’s domestic installed aluminium capacity to rise to 44.661 million tonnes ahead, with the completion of capacity replacement of Guizhou Xingren Denggao in August and commissioning of Guizhou Yuanhao in line. As of now, the operating capacity is 40.828 million tonnes.
The proportion of aluminium liquid in total production grew 1.38 percentage points in August to 68.02 per cent, and the operating rates stood at around 91.4 per cent.
In September, aluminium production in Yunnan is likely to fall, led by insufficient water storage and power supply. Operating capacity at the end of September is estimated to be 40.95 million tonnes, and the output to be around 3.37 million tonnes, an increase of 8.3 per cent Y-o-Y.
On the demand side, downstream orders are expected to recover in September, as the pandemic and power rationing came to an end in August. This may lead to primary aluminium inventory decline, reaching 650,000 tonnes by the September-end.
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