Natixis predicts a positive future for aluminium

Nic Brown, the head of commodities research at Natixis announced at the LME Metals Seminar in London that aluminium prices will average above $2000 per tonne in 2015.

Addressing the delegates, Brown said that the global shortage of bauxite coupled with the increase in demand worldwide, aluminium prices are likely to be pushed to an average of around $2,070 in 2015 and $2,240 in 2016.

He further says, “We think aluminium markets will face a warming phase in the years ahead and we expect prices to rise.”

Since Chinese producers were “very dependent” on Indonesian bauxite, the sudden cut off has hit them hard and he says “next year this will become an issue as smelters become short of bauxite”.

As more automakers are seeking lighter alternative to steel, aluminium is soon becoming the obvious choice, this in turn is pushing the demand for aluminium which he believes will rise at a rate of 5 percent “in coming years”.

Due to the shift in China’s economy from an investment centric to a consumption based, there is now a slowdown in China says Arthur Fan, CEO of BOCI Global Commodities and goes on to say, “In the next years we will see quite a significant change in the impact of China on the global metals market,”