LME ended lower overnight as dollar rose to two-week highs; SHFE on a downtrend on slow consumption

The US dollar rose to two-week highs as US-China trade tensions eased after the world’s two largest economies agreed to restart trade talks. Base metals ended mostly lower. LME aluminium dipped 0.14% and SHFE aluminium went down 0.83%.

LME cash and three months aluminium closed higher during the day’s trading. However, three-month LME aluminium fell to the lowest overnight at US$1,790.5 per tonne and ended lower for the third consecutive trading day, at US$1,791.5 per tonne, after it unsuccessfully tested pressure above from US$1,811 per tonne twice. LME aluminium is likely to trade at US$1,770-1,820 per tonne today. 

As on July 1, Monday, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1777 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1778 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 1803 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 1803.50 per tonne; Dec 20 bid price stands at US$ 1915 per tonne, and Dec 20 offer price stands at US$ 1920 per tonne.

The LME aluminium opening stock dropped further below the one million mark to 989125 tonnes on Monday. Live Warrants totalled at 642500 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 346625 tonnes.

LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 1809 per tonne.

SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend

The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange (SME) dropped to US$ 1991 per tonne today from US$ 2022 per tonne on Monday.

The most traded SHFE August contract reversed its initial, moderate gains to a 3.5-month low of RMB 13,720 per tonne yesterday after SMM data showed a smaller decline in social inventories of primary aluminium ingots in China over the weekend. This grew concerns about consumption in a low season in the third quarter. The contract closed 0.58% lower at RMB 13,750 per tonne, below all short-term moving averages. The SHFE August contract remained below all moving averages overnight as short loaded up their positions and dragged the contract to a low of RMB 13,630 per tonne, before it ended 0.83% lower at RMB 13,665 per tonne. It is seen hovering weakly around RMB13,600-13,800 per tonne today.