LME aluminium to correct at lows, SMM forecasts

SHFE 1607 aluminium will range RMB 12,000-12,200/mt, with support at the 40-day moving average.
In China’s spot aluminium market, spot discounts of RMB 0-20/mt and spot premiums of RMB 0-20/mt are expected over SHFE 1605 aluminium contract.
Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Base Metal Prices
Market attention will focus on US initial jobless claims and April import price index on Thursday.
Despite disappointing US April non-farm payrolls, US initial jobless claims for last week remained below 300,000 for 61 weeks in a row, which will have limited impact on market.
Rising crude oil prices will potentially improve US inflation in April. US import price index is expected to improve in April, given turnaround in wage growth in April.
The Bank of England (BOE) will announce result for its policy meeting. There is a good chance for the BOE to stay put, given poor UK economic data and risks of UK exit from the EU. This will pressure the pound while slightly lifting the US dollar.
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