EU wants aluminium and steel to power 20% of its economic growth - How real is the ambition?

Aluminium is everywhere in Europe’s economy, from power transmission and renewable energy systems to transport, defence, construction and packaging. Its importance has led the European Union to classify aluminium as a critical and strategic raw material. The challenge now is whether Europe’s aluminium supply chain is keeping pace with the scale of that dependence. Europe also likes to point out that it produces aluminium more cleanly than almost anyone else. Recycling rates are high. Carbon intensity is low compared with the global average. On sustainability metrics, the region performs well.

But inside the industry, the picture looks far less comfortable. Energy costs remain structurally high. Global trade remains distorted. Scrap is increasingly leaving the region. Carbon leakage risks under CBAM are unresolved. Decarbonisation targets keep moving faster than investment decisions. None of these pressures is new. What is new is that they are all hitting at the same time. Aluminium may be critical to Europe’s green transition. The system that supplies it is far less secure.

How big is aluminium’s role in the economy?

In economic terms, aluminium still plays a limited role. In 2024, EU’s nominal GDP stood at about USD 19.42 trillion as per word Bank. The aluminium market inside that economy was valued at USD 23.9 billion as per Index Box. That works out to roughly 0.12 per cent of GDP.