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16 JULY 2018 AL CIRCLE

China’s sweeping growth in alumina export in Q2 CY2018 expected to continue in Q3

EDITED BY : DEBANJALI SENGUPTA 2MINS READ

According to the international export-import statistics, the estimated alumina export from China in 2018 is 177,996 tonnes, while the expected revenue to be at US$ 324 million. In the first quarter of 2018, the total alumina export from China was 59,548 tonnes and the revenue earned was US$63 million, while the contemporary period of previous year had recorded 119,126 tonnes of alumina export, yielding US$ 65 million of revenue.

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The chart above shows a comparison of China's export in Q1 and Q2 of 2017 and 2018.

However, the figure increased in the second quarter of 2018, as China exported 50,887 tonnes of alumina and earned revenue of US$80 million, in contrast to 36, 190 tonnes of alumina export and US$46 million of revenue in the second quarter of 2017.

The chart above shows a comparison of China's export revenue in Q1 and Q2 of 2017 and 2018.

This sweeping rise in China’s alumina export in the second quarter of 2018 could be attributed to the inadequate supply of alumina from other parts of the globe because of 50 per cent production cut at Hydro’s Alunorte alumina refinery at the end of February and US Sanctions against Rusal in April.

On the other hand, China’s new export orders for alumina are expected to be signed this week as the export window opened, according to Shanghai Metals Market. But the export volumes are estimated to remain limited in the future as domestic alumina prices are rebounding rapidly.

From July 5, the domestic alumina spot price started registering a growth from RMB 2722 per tonne to RMB 2728 per tonne, followed by RMB 2740 per tonne on July 6. This steady rise in alumina spot price continued last week as well, ended on Friday, July 13, hovering at RMB 2878 per tonne, up RMB 138 per tonne from a week ago. Today, on July 16, the domestic alumina price rose further to stand at RMB 2895 per tonne.

This stable growth in domestic alumina spot price could be because of the tight supply in the market due to production cut in Shanxi province because of China’s three-year initiative to “make skies blue again” and maintenance at some of the refineries’ production lines.

The spread between alumina prices in Shandong province and Australian alumina FOB prices stood at some US$ 17 per tonne as of Friday, July 13, as per the SMM assessments.


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EDITED BY : DEBANJALI SENGUPTA 2MINS READ

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