China’s metallurgical-grade alumina output moves down by 2.2% M-o-M but up by 5.05% Y-o-Y

China’s alumina output in April 2022 (30 calendar days) settled at 6.397 million tonnes, including 6.201 million tonnes of metallurgical-grade alumina, says SMM data. Metallurgical-grade alumina output averaged 206,000 tonnes per day, down 2.2 per cent M-o-M but up by 5.05 per cent Y-o-Y.

In April, the number of production days reduced by one day compared to the previous month, resulting in lower productivity in several sectors. The roasting of alumina factories in Luoyang was limited due to limitations of atmospheric environmental protection legislation. Furthermore, because Henan's local natural gas supply was limited in April, some businesses cut production, resulting in a drop in output.

The output of Henan and Guizhou has decreased, mostly due to the fact that mine safety work in Guizhou has not been lightened since February, limiting ore supply and forcing certain firms to reduce production. Hebei, Guangxi, and Chongqing all boosted output in April, owing to capacity releases from local new investment projects. Guangxi's output climbed by 3 per cent, Chongqing's by 47 per cent, and Hebei's by 350 per cent over the previous year. Jingxi Tiangui, Chongqing Bosai Wanzhou project and Hebei Wenfeng had achieved 1.7 million tonnes, 1.8 million tonnes, and 1.2 million tonnes, respectively, as of the beginning of May, says the SMM data.

Large-scale quality items will gradually come into the market in May, thanks to manufacturers' active manufacturing. In all, it was predicted that the net import of alumina in April would be 100,000 tonnes, with a 46,000 tonnes deficiency for the month. The modest scarcity aided in the gradual rise in alumina prices. From May, the Chongqing Bosai Wanzhou project and Hebei Wenfeng will be running at 2.4 million tonnes, and Jingxi Tiangui phase III with 850,000 tonnes will be launched soon, accelerating the speed of new production capacity and increasing the volume.

As a result, alumina's long-term fundamentals will likely be excess, and output in May is estimated to be about 6.6 million tonnes. Prices will be under pressure at that time.