China’s alumina imports in June reflect a slump of 13.9% Y-o-Y due to supply cuts in the overseas market

According to China customs data, China's alumina exports in June 2024 trended up M-o-M by 54.78 per cent to reach 157,100 tonnes versus 101,500 tonnes in May. The latest hike brought the country's cumulative exports during January-June to 810,700 tonnes.

However, China's alumina imports in June decreased by 58.8 per cent month over month, amounting to 37,700 tonnes. Also, the import volume slumped by 13.93 per cent year-over-year. From January to June, China's total alumina imports stood at 1.185 million tonnes, up 56.04 per cent from the corresponding period of the previous year.

Net imports of alumina in June were 119,400 tonnes, bringing the cumulative six months volume to 374,300 tonnes.

Among the sources, Australia topped the list in June, supplying 31,500 tonnes, which accounted for 86.21 per cent of China's total imports. Japan, Germany, and France were the three other exporters, providing 2,100 tonnes, 1,300 tonnes, and 1,300 tonnes, respectively.

The downfall in China's alumina imports during June could be attributed to supply cuts in the overseas market and the shutdown of the domestic spot import window for aluminium ore.

There were supply cuts of alumina in the overseas market owing to Alcoa's alumina production drop to 2.53 million tonnes during Q2, mainly due to a production cut at the Kwinana refinery. Similarly, Rio Tinto posted a 10 per cent Y-o-Y drop in its alumina output to 1.7 million tonnes due to a disruption in Gladstone operations caused by the rupture of a third-party-operated Queensland natural gas pipeline. Rio Tinto has also trimmed down its full-year production forecast from the previous 7.6-7.9 million tonnes to 7-7.3 million tonnes.

According to SMM, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production in July 2024 will likely be 4.88 million tonnes, and overseas aluminium output will be 2.54 million tonnes.

The spot import window for alumina is unlikely to open in the short term, so imports will remain at a low level.