China to boost annual aluminium production capacity by another 3 million tonnes in 2021: Antaike

China will add another 3 million tonnes of annual aluminium production capacity in 2021 – more than half the capacity in the emerging smelting hub of Yunnan province, said Antaike on Wednesday, October 14.

The abundant availability of hydropower in Yunnan already bought some major aluminium producers like China Hongqiao Group to the province after the Government announced the companies would need to operate in clean-energy-rich areas to keep developing.

Analyst Wang Hongfei said at the China International Aluminum Week conference in Chongqing that Antaike sees 1.88 million tonnes of capacity coming on stream in Yunnan next year, following 1.63 million tonnes of capacity in 2020.

Antaike also expects 370,000 tonnes of capacity to come online in Guangxi, 550,000 tonnes in Inner Mongolia, and 100,000 tonnes in Shanxi and Guizhou in 2021.

By next year, primary aluminium consumption in China is estimated to rise by 1.7 per cent, following a projected hike of 1.6 per cent in consumption in 2020.

"We expect traditional demand will gradually recover and new infrastructure will bring new consumption," said Wang, cautioning that China's aluminium exports still face a "severe" situation due to trade friction.

From 35.93 million tonnes of primary aluminium production in 2019, the output is expected to increase to 37.15 million tonnes by the end of 2020 and to 38 million tonnes by 2021.

Antaike also increased its forecast by almost twofold for China's net primary aluminium imports this year. According to Antaike’s calculation, China’s net primary aluminium imports will stand at 820,000 tonnes this year.

Separately, Antaike analyst Huo Yunbo noted that China would add 6.7 million tonnes of alumina capacity in 2021 and another 4.6 million tonnes in 2022 to the current existing capacity of 88.15 million tonnes.