China's aluminium fabricated and semi-finished product exports to keep soaring in 2017

China's aluminium exports are expected to continue their surge through 2017 much in the same way they did in 2016, being supported strong demand and a weaker yuan. The fact that the Chinese fabricators are exempted from paying import and export tax, and receive full rebate on VAT if their export volumes of aluminium products match their primary aluminium imports, is going to support the rise in the new financial year as well. As per the data released by the General Administration of Customs on December 22, China's total aluminium semi-finished products (Aluminium bar, rod, and profile, Aluminium wire, Aluminium plate, sheet, and strip, Aluminium foil, and Aluminium tube) exports during January-November stood at 3,730,000 tonnes. In November, however, the exports declined 14.5 per cent to stand at 340,000 tonnes.

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China's major aluminium fabricated product (Aluminium bar, rod, and profile, Aluminium plate, sheet, and strip, and Aluminium tube and pipes) exports totalled 3.33 million tonnes in 2015. Aluminium bar, rod, and profile constituted 34.23 per cent of the total export, Aluminium plate, sheet, and strip constituted 61.5 per cent, and Aluminium tubes and pipes constituted 3.6 per cent of the total exports. 

In the first ten months of 2016, China exported 3.4 million tonnes of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products, an increase of nearly 12 per cent year-on-year. In fact, export volumes in 2016 were much higher than expected given that the SHFE-LME aluminium arbitrage has not been favourable for exports, a trader said. The total aluminium fabricated/semi-finished product exports (including Aluminium bar, rod, and profile, Aluminium plate, sheet, and strip, and Aluminium tube and pipes) is estimated to reach 3.4 million tonnes i 2016. The export volume of each component witnessed a significant year-over-year rise, which is expected to continue in 2017.


Value-wise too, the total aluminium semi-finished/fabricated product exports witnessed a year-over-year growth in 2016. The total export of products including Aluminium bar, rod, and profile, Aluminium plate, sheet, and strip, and Aluminium tube and pipes is estimated to be valued at US$11.3 billion against an estimated US$10.4 billion in 2015.

The demand for Chinese aluminium products, such as aluminium tubes, foils and plates, has increased globally, resulting in a continuous rise in the country's export volumes, an analyst from a futures company said. The weak performance of the yuan, in the second half of 2016, lent further support to the export of aluminium fabricated products from China

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If the favourable factors of buoyant demand in the international market and depreciation of the yuan continue, China's aluminium fabricated products exports will remain upbeat next year, observed a futures analyst.