Presenting an interview excerpt of Abhijit Pati,  two times gold medallist from prestigious institutes like Calcutta University and International Management Institute (IMI), New Delhi. Abhijit Pati worked in an aluminium complex (Odisha) with a 2 million tonne annual capacity, 3615 MW Power generation, annual revenue of USD 2 billion, EBIDTA of USD 800 million, and 12000 direct and indirect head counts with gender diversity of 15%. At Balco, Chhattisgarh led a 600,000-tonne aluminium facility with a 2000 MW power base with 100KTPA aluminium rolled product as Whole-timeDirector and Member of the Balco Board and conceptualised 1MnT Club journey of Balco as 6^th largest single location aluminium smelter in the globe with best in class leading edge technology. Driving 8000 direct and indirect people with USD 1 billion in turnover and having an EBITDA of USD 300 million. All-in-one premises are considered the single location's largest aluminium-producing facility.

AL Circle: India’s aluminium capacity has significantly expanded over the past decade. In your view, how aligned is this capacity with downstream consumption? Are we headed toward a structural surplus or a balanced ecosystem?

Abhijit Pati: Over the past decade, India has seen a sharp rise in its primary aluminium capacity, largely led by integrated players like Vedanta, Hindalco, and NALCO. While upstream capacity is robust, downstream consumption is still catching up. The ecosystem remains semi-balanced, but we’re leaning toward a structural surplus in primary aluminium unless downstream industries scale up significantly. Strategic policy support, investments in extrusion and rolling capacities, and integration with sectors like EVs and renewables are essential to prevent a glut.

AL Circle: India’s billet production has been scaling up rapidly. Do you think there still seems to be a growing gap between domestic billet production and consumption? What are the key factors driving this trend, and how do you foresee this evolving in the next five years?

Abhijit Pati: India’s billet production is indeed rising rapidly, but downstream demand – especially from infrastructure and construction – has not kept pace. A gap persists, driven by uneven regional consumption, lack of advanced extrusion capacity, and limited SME integration. Over the next five years, we expect this gap to gradually narrow due to rising demand from smart cities, railways, and exports. However, this will depend heavily on policy facilitation and capital infusion in the downstream sector.

AL Circle: The recent imposition of US tariffs on aluminium imports, including those from India, could disrupt trade flows. How significant is this impact on Indian producers, and what contingency or diversification strategies should the industry explore?

Abhijit Pati: The new US tariffs on aluminium imports, including Indian-origin metal, are a non-trivial setback for Indian producers, especially for those exporting wire rods, billets, and rolled products. While volumes to the US were not dominant, the tariffs set a precedent and could shrink margins. Contingency strategies include:

• Market diversification (e.g., Southeast Asia, Middle East, and Africa).
• Product differentiation (value-added, low-carbon aluminium).
• FTA leverage (through active trade pacts with Europe and ASEAN nations).

To read the full interview, click here.