Emerging structural tightness in aluminium: Supply constraints, China’s cap & electrification demand driving tightness

Introduction

The aluminium market has entered a structurally tighter phase in late 2025, facing geopolitical and energy price risk, driven by supply caps, rising electrification demand and limited global smelting expansion. Aluminium remains the second-most-used industrial metal after steel and is increasingly viewed as the next strategic industrial metal after copper. Market sentiment has shifted from a cyclical recovery to structural tightness, as supply growth constraints appear increasingly durable rather than temporary. 

China’s production cap is reshaping supply dynamics

 A central structural driver is China’s 45 million tonne primary aluminium production cap. China produces ~58–60 per cent of global aluminium, making its supply policy crucial for pricing. Introduced under energy and carbon control measures, the cap has at times been reached, restricting further expansion unless inefficient capacity is shut down. Historically, China led incremental global supply growth, but with this channel constrained, new output must come from India, Indonesia and the Middle East, where expansion is slower. This cap has reduced the risk of prolonged oversupply cycles that previously pressured prices. However, any relaxation or change of the 45 million tonne limit could significantly alter global supply dynamics.

Indonesia’s emergence as a secondary aluminium supply hub

Indonesia is emerging as a key incremental supply hub. Supported by low-cost coal-based power, strong industrial policy and rising Chinese investment, new smelters such as Adaro Minerals and Inalum are increasing export volumes. However, Indonesia’s production base remains small relative to China’s scale. Even with aggressive expansion, Indonesia will supplement rather than replace China’s dominant role. The shift is nevertheless important, as it signals that future supply growth is geographically diversifying rather than being concentrated in China.

Market moving towards a supply deficit

While the market is not in a deep structural deficit in 2026, surpluses that characterised earlier years have narrowed. According to current estimates, the global aluminium market is expected to remain in a slight deficit of 140 thousand tonnes in 2026, following a larger shortfall in 2025. On the demand side, primary aluminium consumption in China edged higher in 2025 despite continued weakness in the domestic property sector. Demand growth was mainly driven by the automobile, photovoltaic, power grid and energy storage industries.

Image used for representational purpose

Electrification driving long-term demand

Electrification is emerging as a core structural driver of aluminium demand. The metal is used in power transmission, electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy infrastructure. EVs typically use 25–40 per cent more aluminium than conventional vehicles due to lightweighting requirements, improving efficiency and range. Aluminium is also widely used in solar panel frames and grid expansion projects. While copper remains a better conductor, aluminium’s lower cost and lighter weight features make it highly competitive in transmission and grid applications. Aluminium has about 61 per cent of copper’s conductivity but weighs only ~30 per cent of it. This makes it efficient for power transmission and it is already widely used in grid infrastructure as global electrification investment accelerates.

Global aluminium demand is estimated at 72–74 million tonnes annually and is projected to grow at 3–4 per cent per year over the next decade. China remains a dominant consumer, accounting for more than 55 per cent of global demand, supported by growth in solar, EVs and manufacturing. India and Southeast Asia are emerging as incremental demand centres driven by infrastructure and grid expansion, while Europe and North America are seeing steady growth from energy transition investment & automotive lightweighting.

Mozal smelter risks: A key vulnerability in the supply chain

A specific supply risk in the global aluminium market is the Mozal smelter in Mozambique. The Mozal smelter, with a capacity of ~600 thousand tonnes per year (1-2 per cent of global production), is one of Africa’s largest aluminium producers and plays an important role in supplying metal to global markets. Mozal accounts for a significant portion of Mozambique’s export earnings and contributes to global aluminium supply outside China. However, the smelter has faced operational uncertainties in recent years, including power supply issues, ownership changes and operational risks. Any hiccups at Mozal, particularly the maintenance scheduled by March, could tighten global supply further, particularly in physical markets supplying Europe and Asia.

Given the limited number of large-scale smelters outside China, disruptions at facilities like Mozal can have disproportionate effects on supply availability and regional premiums.

Inventory trends and physical premiums signal a tight supply

Global aluminium inventories remain relatively low compared to historical levels. LME warehouse inventories have declined significantly from peak levels seen in previous years, reflecting tighter physical availability and stronger demand. However, SHFE inventories have risen significantly, indicating regional softness. Physical premiums in key markets such as Europe and Asia have remained elevated, reflecting tight spot supply conditions.

Iranian strikes add to supply risks

The primary driver of the recent rally was concern about global supply disruptions stemming from the Middle East conflict. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for the Persian Gulf region, has significantly disrupted the transportation of aluminium exports. The Gulf region accounts for roughly 9 per cent of global aluminium production, making the disruption a major concern for global supply chains. Further exacerbating supply worries, two major smelters in the region faced operational disruptions. Aluminium Bahrain (Alba), which operates one of the world’s largest aluminium smelters, declared force majeure on shipments and announced a phased production shutdown that could impact a significant portion of its annual capacity. Meanwhile, the Qatari smelter Qatalum also began shutting down production.

Iranian strikes targeted two key aluminium manufacturing sites in the Middle East, raising fears of long-term supply shortages. Emirates Global Aluminium, the region’s leading producer, claimed “significant damage” at its Abu Dhabi facility with a capacity of 1.5 million tonnes a year, while Aluminium Bahrain said it was assessing the extent of the damage to its operations. Earlier this month, Alba had already shut down 19 per cent of its 1.6-million-tonne-per-year capacity due to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Conclusion

Looking ahead, the aluminium market appears structurally firmer than in previous cycles. With China’s production capped at 45 million tonnes, western smelting constrained by elevated energy costs, secondary supply limited by scrap availability and new capacity emerging gradually in India and Indonesia, the global supply response remains slow and capital-intensive. At the same time, electrification-driven demand across power grids, renewable energy and electric vehicles provides sustained structural support, reducing the likelihood of prolonged surplus conditions. Trade fragmentation and regional tariff regimes further limit supply flexibility, reinforcing tighter physical market dynamics. While Asia ex-China capacity additions will moderate extreme tightness over time, they are unlikely to fully offset constrained Chinese output in the near to medium term.