The future of AI & Exponential Technologies

Introduction

Since the last part of 2022, the world has witnessed a number of developments and conflicts in the world of technology. Those had been related to the new-age technology areas known as Exponential Technologies. It started when the San Francisco headquartered & Microsoft-backed company OpenAI launched ChatGPT, an advanced Generative Progressive Transformer (GPT-4) based chatbot. Since the launch, it has disrupted not only the chatbot space but also the overall AI and the perception of the same. Globally the enthusiasts, testers, potential users, competitors and even the scientists started testing the beta version of ChatGPT, and across the board, mesmerisation was the consistent initial reaction. Of course, the free beta version had some limitations, like the training data set used was only based on the data till 2021 and hence some of the recent events still needed to be answered by the ChatGPT.

Transition of the reaction

Since its launch, ChatGPT has created a lot of interest, the industry and technology leaders have started using it, and advanced testing follows after the initial set of quick and easy questions. ‘Advanced’ in this field means areas demanding not only information but also weaving fragments of information from multiple sources, checking consistencies and then answering the questions with some aspects of decision-making or prediction. 

Often such answers would require beyond the usual cognitive capabilities, and the test set comprising answers to such questions would require more work. However, the full form of GPT is Generative Progressive (Pre-trained) Transformer. The generative part takes over after a voluminous pre-training data set. The core concept of AI is that after a set of data, the model itself will be able to create answers without being fed any data, even related to the matter. Now that part is interesting and scary at the same time.

Globally, only within less than six months of its launch we started seeing the mood of the global experts changing. They are now into trauma from awe, advocating various reasons for how AI can pose a significant threat to humankind. Recently, a set of 1000+ advanced AI professionals like Elon Musk and Steve Wozniak put their signature in an open letter to end the advanced AI research as that will significantly impact human civilization from various aspects, many of which will dramatically impact the human civilization from multiple aspects, many which are detrimental in nature.

Why advanced AI research is viewed as a threat?

Controlling AI may have originated from many aspects, and some of them are getting deliberated at present. For example, the open letter appealing to put a pause on AI-related research focuses on the following points:

1. AI developments may have a significant negative impact on society

Sometimes the questions need to be answered with a deep thought of whether the question needs to be answered. The objective of the person asking the question must also be ascertained and contextualized. However, it has been thought by many users that such a thought process or judgment is very human-centric, and AI has yet to ascertain the intention behind a question.

2. AI developments may significantly impact economic conditions and the job market 

 GPT-4 based chatbots like ChatGPT are presently transforming a number of fields, like content development, marketing content and channel selection, legal processes, exam preparation, research documentation, hiring and especially resume selection, SOP (standard operating procedure) development and the like. These use cases are already aplenty and will surely increase in the days to come. This is perceived as a significant threat to the job market, and many of the skills will gradually be imitated.

3. AI developments will have to be controlled, but we presently do not have any such mechanism

Globally there is no standard for controlling AI. There need to be guidelines to ascertain what the topics are where AI will be involved and where not. A concrete thought process has yet to be created, even at the country level. As a result, AI may be trained and utilized at any level by students as well as extremists to ask anything, and GPT-4 will do everything possible to answer the same.

4. AI advancements will be in the hand of a few companies

At present, OpenAI is led by Sam Altman, and Microsoft has a major shareholding in the organization. Google has already launched another chatbot, but that needs more improvement in the days to come. Clearly, other organizations are in the middle of their research. If OpenAI releases GPT-5, then that will be significant advancement over the rivals, and the entire AI market will advance towards a monopolistic market. This, being a technology that has the capability to shape our future, will be dangerous. 

As a result, AI till now is a double-edged sword. It was always like that, but the threat was not grave until the earlier version of intelligence. However, with ChatGPT’s success, the threat is currently perceived as significant. 

What will be the possible impact of halting AI research?

While a number of global leaders and advanced researchers are warning against any other quick developments of AI, many others are also questioning otherwise. A few such arguments are mentioned here:

1. Halting AI research will give other companies time only to catch up

Many industry leaders are of the opinion that halting AI research will only serve a few companies, which are now laggards, to quickly catch up with OpenAI (backed by Microsoft) or Google, which has till now made significant progress.

2. It will be difficult to impose any such guideline

Creating a guideline will be difficult, but imposing the guidelines will be even more challenging. Many countries may still want to continue their research and get more developed than those that would comply with such guidelines. Besides, imposing such guidelines will also involve significant resources and taxpayers’ money.

3. Innovation can't be stopped 

It will be very difficult for the countries or any governing body to monitor the companies and their research facilities to ascertain whether they are continuing their research on advanced AI technologies like GPT-5.

4. Positive aspects of advanced AI can never be neglected

AI and its recent advancements are significantly impacting mankind. Apart from a few use cases mentioned above, many researchers conclude that advanced AI will be the biggest ally for mankind in the domain of research and medicinal advancements. It can also significantly improve mental health and keep company with superannuated people. Already AI-based robotic dogs are helping dementia patients find their way back home. Such cases may be addressed as well.

How this will impact the Global Aluminium industry?

Aluminium is already an ecosystem close to USD$1 Trillion globally. Like many other significant industries, it already has umpteen areas that ChatGPT can support. 

The Aluminium industry is already working in multiple areas with ChatGPT. The companies with CDOs (Chief Digital Officers) or even otherwise are globally trying the various accounts of ChatGPT for recruitment (to determine the skills for the roles and selecting the CVs of the applicants), developing guidelines or SOPs, development of technical documents, enhancing marketing communications, support in data analysis for researches, development of media communication, internal knowledge portal development and many more. Any immediate halt in advanced AI research may not impact the aluminium industry significantly.

Conclusion

The CEO of OpenAI has already declared that the company is not going to focus on GPT-5 technology immediately. Globally a few technology leaders have already started mentioning that halting AI research may not be the best solution; rather, collaborating to set up standard guidelines will be more effective. Already a few countries are working towards the same. Overall, AI space will be more interesting in the days that come. Stay tuned to this AL Tech series to learn about the future.