1. Macro perspective The US-Iran conflict entered its second week. After the escort coalition intervened, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz partially recovered, but war risk insurance rates remained elevated. Brent crude pulled back from a high of USD 101 to consolidate around USD 95, with energy cost support weakening from earlier levels but not yet fading. The US Fed delivered a 25bp rate hike at its September FOMC meeting, and the dot plot indicated one more hike may still occur this year. Chair Warsh struck a hawkish tone in his post-meeting remarks, and the US dollar index held at a 13-month high. Next week, attention turns to China's official PMI on September 30, as well as US PCE and non-farm payrolls data during the National Day holiday—with China's market closed for seven days...
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China (GACC), China's total primary aluminium imports reached 185,500 tonnes in August 2026, down 14.65 per cent year-on-year but up 0.16 per cent month-on-month. Total imports for January-August amounted to 1.66 million tonnes, a decrease of 3.41 per cent year-on-year. The 14.65 per cent year-on-year decline in August imports, coupled with a nearly flat month-on-month performance, indicates that imports have not collapsed but rather maintained a steady inflow. In August, China's total primary aluminium exports stood at 21,900 tonnes, down 14.53 per cent year-on-year and 30.48 per cent month-on-month. Cumulative exports for January-August totalled 167,500 tonnes, up 9.26 per cent year-on-year....
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LME aluminium slid further down. With the price support from two of aluminium’s key raw materials coal and alumina weakening, the light metal is unable to reverse the downtrend, even when aluminium stocks in LME warehouses are declining. On the other hand, demand growth has slowed down. All these factors are expected to weigh on LME aluminium prices in the near term. As on November 21, LME official cash buyer aluminium price (Bid Price) stands at US$2,060 per tonne, cash seller & settlement aluminium price (Offer price) is US$2,062 per tonne, 3M Bid Price is US$2,078 per tonne, 3M Offer Price is US$2,080 per tonne, Dec1 Bid Price is US$2,125 per tonne, and Dec1 Offer Price is US$2,130 per tonne. LME aluminium Opening Stock or the LME aluminium inventory level stands at 1141700 tonnes,...
Press Metal Aluminium Holdings Berhad, the largest aluminium smelter and extruder in South East Asia, reported its financial performance for nine months ended 30 September 2017. The company said in a press release that they are now targeting to increase contribution of value-added products from 30 per cent to 50 per cent by end 2018. The company’s cumulative nine months core profit increased 57.3 per cent to RM452.6 million, from RM287.7 million a year ago due to additional production output generated by its Samalaju Phase 2 smelting plant and higher metal price. Tan Sri Paul Koon, Group Chief Executive Officer, commented: "We are encouraged by our continued growth year-on-year while operating in rising cost environment. We expect to benefit from the current higher metal price moving...
According to the data released by the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) and published by Shanghai Metals Market, the daily average primary aluminium production excluding China increased in October against September. The production increased to 70,300 tonnes in October 2017 compared to 70,000 tonnes in September 2017. Global production of primary aluminium outside China was 2.179 million tonnes in October, from 2.1 million tonnes in September. In China, the daily average aluminium production reduced to 82,100 tonnes in October, from 86,900 tonnes in September. China churned out 2.54 million tonnes of primary aluminium in October, from 2.606 million tonnes in September.
A00 ingot price has experienced the biggest drop in recent time today when the average price stood at RMB 14,860/t. As updated by Shanghai Metals Market, the primary ingot price registered a drop of RMB 250/t. The price is expected to range within RMB 14,840 – 14,880 per tonne. Aluminium price has been surging throughout 2017. The price rise was so far driven by supply-side reforms in China and environmental restrictions. On the other hand, increase in the price of prime raw materials like alumina and coal was another factor supporting the growth in aluminium price. As per SMM data, average full production cost of domestic refined aluminium enterprises in November 2017 is RMB 16,033 per tonne, up 4.5 on yearly basis. However, the recent downturn in aluminium price is mostly driven by drop...
Currently Aditya Birla Group remains the largest aluminium producer in India with a total combined capacity of 1.32 million tonne of aluminium by Aditya Aluminium and Hindalco. However, Vedanta is on the right track to touch 1.6 million tonne capacity mark this year surpassing Hindalco. Vedanta has recently reported record half yearly production of 753,000 tonnes, up 39% YoY. This was attributed to continued smelter ramp-up in Balco and Jharsuguda. The company reports a current run-rate of 1.6 tpy (excluding trial run production). The company, which produced 1.21 million tonne of aluminium across its two facilities in Jharsuguda and Korba in FY2017, is on course to clock an annual output of 1.6 million tonne this year. "As a group, we will be producing 1.6 million tonne of aluminium in...
LME aluminium is extending its declines. With the downward tendency of alumina and coal prices already setting in across China market, the light metal is unable to draw support and reverse the downtrend. From US$2,077 per tonne on November 17, LME aluminium has dropped further to US$2,067.50 per tonne after night trading on Monday, November 20. LME aluminium stocks are falling in tandem as well. This could affect regional aluminium premiums and spreads, market sources opine. Most of the global participants are of the view that there was room for further fall for LME aluminium in the near term. As on November 20, LME official cash buyer aluminium price (Bid Price) stands at US$2,067 per tonne, cash seller & settlement aluminium price (Offer price) is US$2,067.50 per tonne, 3M Bid Price is...
LME aluminium failed to sustain last week’s gain as buying slowed down in the downstream verticals. The light metal contract which had inched higher to US$2,106 per tonne on Thursday, November 16, slid back to US$2,077 per tonne after night trading on Friday, November 17. Current price trend suggests that LME aluminium will keep volatile and continue trading within a narrow range in the short term. As on November 17, LME official cash buyer aluminium price (Bid Price) stands at US$2,076.50 per tonne, cash seller & settlement aluminium price (Offer price) is US$2,077 per tonne, 3M Bid Price is US$2,095 per tonne, 3M Offer Price is US$2,095.50 per tonne, Dec1 Bid Price is US$2,140 per tonne, and Dec1 Offer Price is US$2,145 per tonne. LME aluminium Opening Stock or the LME aluminium...
Tajik Aluminium Company (TALСO) official representative Igor Sattarov said Friday that the Yunnan Construction Engineering Group that provides construction services in China will construct a facility for the production of aluminium in the western city of Tursunzoda. China will invest $1.6 billion in the manufacturing plant. The new facility, with an annual production capacity of 500,000 tonnes, will be completed in the next one-and-a-half years utilizing the most advanced technology to date. Earlier reports indicated that Tajikistan is considering increasing the production of primary aluminium in 2017. The country’s largest state-owned company TALСO produced 76,000 tonnes of aluminium during January- September 2017. The company decided to increase aluminium production to 300,000 tonnes by...
It will take time to reflect results of the implementation of production cut in the aluminium ingots inventory in the Chinese market. This is putting pressure in the aluminium prices by keeping it low. A00 ingot prices in China drop across two days after the winter capacity cut started on November 15. As updated by Shanghai Metals Market, average A00 aluminium ingot price has dropped RMB 130/t to RMB 15,230/t on November 17 from RMB 15,360/t yesterday. The price is expected to range within RMB 15210 – RMB 15250 per tonne. Chen Xuesen, vice director of strategic development Dept. of China Aluminum has recently said in a seminar in Fuzhou that Chinese government is researching on detailed measures to continue with aluminium output cut. Since China’s domestic aluminium demand is projected to...
LME aluminium has edged higher above the US$2,100 per tonne mark. The light metal contract which has been struggling around US$2,080 per tonne level over the last five days rose 1.25 per cent to close at US$2,106 per tonne on Thursday, November 16. However, the bearish trend in global non-ferrous sector is likely to keep reining in the upward impetus of aluminium in the near term. As on November 16, LME official cash buyer aluminium price (Bid Price) stands at US$2,105.50 per tonne, cash seller & settlement aluminium price (Offer price) is US$2,106 per tonne, 3M Bid Price is US$2,123 per tonne, 3M Offer Price is US$2,123.50 per tonne, Dec1 Bid Price is US$2,168 per tonne, and Dec1 Offer Price is US$2,173 per tonne. LME aluminium Opening Stock or the LME aluminium inventory level stands at...
So, aluminium prices are back again to the below US$2,100 per tonne mark. With demand remaining muted, this downtrend is unlikely to reverse in the near term. However, China monthly production figures (October production 2.55 million tonnes down by 2.3% YoY) suggest that aluminium supply from the country is shrinking and that will eventually drive up the prices what if not in the near term. But more than aluminium, it is the raw material prices that are grabbing attention of the analysts. Renowned aluminium industry analyst and columnist with Reuters Andy Home recently looked into the key aluminium raw material price trends and how they are being impacted by China’s looming industrial capacity cuts. Both alumina and prebaked anode prices have jumped considerably. “Carbon anode was already...
With the starting of the implantation of actual winter capacity cut for alumina and aluminium yesterday, primary ingot prices registered a jump today. As updated by Shanghai Metals Market, average A00 aluminium ingot price has gained RMB 170/t on November 16 to stand at RMB 15,360/t from RMB 15,190/t yesterday. The rise in aluminium A00 Aluminum prices have continued in all other individual markets in China. A00 ingot prices have registered an increase from RMB 135/t to RMB 195/t across all markets. A00 ingot prices have registered a drop only in the south China market. In the spot market aluminium is trading at a discount of RMB 160-120 /tonne. The jump in A00 ingot prices in the individual markets can be seen in the table below: Chalco, China's leading state-run aluminium firm has not...
LME aluminium dropped marginally as consumption in China, the world’s biggest aluminium consumer market, slowed down alongside the onset of winter capacity cuts. The light metal contract which closed at US$2,085 per tonne on Tuesday, November 14, came down to close at US$2,082 per tonne on Wednesday, November 15. Although it is a bit early to say whether aluminium market has entered a bear or a bull phase, the cyclicality and its resultant anticipation has definitely put the commodity in a negative domain as far as the short to medium term outlook is concerned. As on November 15, LME official cash buyer aluminium price (Bid Price) stands at US$2,081.50 per tonne, cash seller & settlement aluminium price (Offer price) is US$2,082 per tonne, 3M Bid Price is US$2,096 per tonne, 3M Offer...
Vedanta today announced that the State Pollution Control Board, Odisha ('SPCB') has revoked the closure order on the remaining two power units, which were closed following a breach in the Ash Pond dyke wall at Jharsuguda, on November 10, 2017, and hence restarted these units of power plant. SPCB had directed a temporary closure of the five power plant units (three units of 135 MW each of the 1215 MW power plant, and two units of 600 MW each of the 2400 MW power plant) on 13 September 2017. Vedanta said that the closure order has been revoked on all five power units that were directed by SPCB to be temporarily closed. The SPCB has allowed operation of all the units till January 12, 2018 after which further extension of operation will be considered with a review of progress.
LME aluminium is struggling to break above the US$2,100 per tonne mark. After inching higher at US$2,100 per tonne on Monday, November 13, the light metal contract again dropped to US$2,085 per tonne on Tuesday, November 14. Current price trend analysis suggests that LME aluminium will extend its downtrend in the near term. Any gain in this period will be limited in a narrow range. As on November 14, LME official cash buyer aluminium price (Bid Price) stands at US$2,084.50 per tonne, cash seller & settlement aluminium price (Offer price) is US$2,085 per tonne, 3M Bid Price is US$2,105 per tonne, 3M Offer Price is US$2,105.50 per tonne, Dec1 Bid Price is US$2,150 per tonne, and Dec1 Offer Price is US$2,155 per tonne. LME aluminium Opening Stock or the LME aluminium inventory level stands...
Indian aluminium industry body Aluminium Association of India (AAI) has approached the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) seeking a solution to the looming coal supply shortage. The shortage has put 7.5 lakh jobs at stake and upcoming investments in the sector are being weighed down upon by a heavy debt load amounting to INR 70,000 crore. The dry coke shortfall against linkages is 78 per cent in case of Hindalco, 57 per cent for Vedanta, and 21 per cent for Balco, the AAI informed. “Coal security is the most critical aspect of sustainable operations and ramp-up of aluminium smelter", AAI said in a letter to the PMO adding that power contributes to 45 per cent of the overall production cost. "Any power outage/failure (4 hours or more) results in freezing of aluminium pots and shutting down of...
The Aluminum Association, in cooperation with the Aluminium Association of Canada reported that the total primary aluminium production in U.S. and Canada was at an annual rate of 3,947,875 tonnes during October 2017, up 5,279 tpy (+0.1%) over the September 2017 rate of 3,942,596 tonnes. The individual production rates in both U.S. and Canada rose slightly. North American annual rate dropped slightly below the October 2016 rate of 3,983,591 tonnes. YTD production through October 2017 totalled 3,293,975 tonnes, down 2.1 per cent YoY. Imports of ingot, scrap and mill products into the U.S. and Canada (excluding cross-border trade) stood at 720 million pounds in September 2017, up 5.5 per cent over the amount in September 2016. Including scrap, which accounted for roughly 52.7 per cent of...
Vedanta Resources published results for the six months ended 30 September 2017 on Friday. The company posted revenue and EBITDA of US$6.8 billion and US$1.7 billion respectively due to higher volumes and strong commodity prices. Profit attributable to equity holders of the parent (before special items) increased to US$ 21 million. The company’s aluminium production increased 39 per cent to 753 thousand tonnes in H1 FY2018, with an exit run-rate of 1.6 million tonnes per annum (excluding trial run production) in September 2017. In FY2018 , Vedanta is expected to produce between 1.5 million to 1.6 million tonnes of aluminium. The company is anticipated to exit FY2018 at a run rate of 2 million tonnes per annum. Anil Agarwal, Chairman of Vedanta Resources plc, commented: “Our performance in...
