Six brokerages bullish on Vedanta Aluminium see up to 53% upside as Q2 earnings surge 83%

Vedanta Aluminium Metal Limited has received strong endorsements from six leading brokerages namely, Emkay Global, Nuvama, Nomura, Systematix, Avendus Spark and ICICI Securities, following its Q2 FY27 results, with all six maintaining BUY ratings and projecting potential share-price upside of up to 53 per cent.

Target prices range from INR 490 to INR 550 per share, supported by strong quarterly earnings, record production and progress on expansion projects.

Record production and earnings strengthen outlook

Vedanta Aluminium reported quarterly EBITDA of approximately INR10,100 crore, up over 82 per cent year-on-year, supported by higher volumes, stronger realisations and an improved product mix.

Aluminium production reached a record 649,000 tonnes, rising 5 per cent year-on-year, while alumina production grew by 37 per cent. Value-added aluminium production increased 31 per cent to 432,000 tonnes, reflecting growing demand for premium products.

Emkay Global maintains BUY with the highest target price of INR 550, implying 53 per cent upside. It identifies higher captive alumina availability, domestic bauxite sourcing and coal integration as key profitability drivers, alongside BALCO's smelter expansion and higher refinery utilisation.

Nuvama maintains BUY with a INR 540 target, indicating 50 per cent upside. It expects production growth, improved asset utilisation and operating leverage from upcoming capacity additions to support earnings momentum.

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Systematix maintains BUY with a INR 522 target, implying 45 per cent upside. The brokerage highlights strong quarterly earnings, improved realisations and growing value-added product sales, with BALCO's expansion and increased alumina production supporting future growth.

Avendus Spark maintains BUY with a INR 500 target, indicating 39 per cent upside. It estimates that expansion and backward integration projects could generate INR 6,000–8,000 crore in incremental annual EBITDA over the next two years, equivalent to approximately 30 per cent of the FY26 base. Strong free cash flow generation is expected to support investment and financial flexibility.

ICICI Securities maintains BUY with a INR 490 target, implying 36 per cent upside. It highlights higher premium-product sales, an improving domestic sales mix and stronger operational efficiency, supported by disciplined capital allocation.

Nomura maintains BUY with a  INR 500 target, indicating 39 per cent upside. Its positive outlook reflects confidence in production expansion, improved raw-material security and the growing value-added aluminium portfolio.

Multiple growth drivers strengthen investment case

Across the six reports, analysts identify BALCO's smelter expansion, higher alumina output at the Odisha refinery and captive bauxite and coal development as major drivers of future earnings and competitiveness.

Growing demand for value-added aluminium across automotive, infrastructure, electrical and manufacturing applications provides an additional opportunity.As an independently listed company following Vedanta's demerger, Vedanta Aluminium is increasingly being assessed on its standalone growth potential, profitability and cash generation.

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With all six brokerages maintaining BUY recommendations, the positive assessments reflect confidence in the company's ability to translate its expansion and integration strategy into stronger earnings, cash generation and sustained shareholder value.

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