08 SEPTEMBER 2016Shanghai Metals Market
LME aluminium to swing widely
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<p>LME aluminium will move in a wide range of USD 1,580-1,610/mt on Thursday. <br /><br />SHFE 1611 aluminium should move between RMB 11,890-12,050/mt.<br /><br />In east China’s spot aluminium market, spot premiums of RMB 100-140/mt are expected over SHFE 1609 aluminium contract.<br /><br /><strong>Key macroeconomic indicators for base metal prices</strong><br /><br />US crude oil inventories for last week and European Central Bank interest rate decision will be a focus of markets today. Base metals fell overnight due to rising US dollar index.<br /><br />In China’s official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs in August, import and new export order improved noticeably. When combined with yuan’s devaluation, China’s exports may improve in August. But export order sub-indice in Japan’s August manufacturing PMI dropped noticeably, meaning weak overseas demand. So any improvement in China’s exports should be limited.<br /><br />The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week should remain low, and the number last week had remained below 300,000 for 78 straight weeks.<br /><br />API’s crude oil inventories for the US last week unexpectedly fall, driving up crude oil prices. should EIA’s inventories decline, crude oil will rise further.<br /><br />It seems to be necessary for the European Central Bank to expand its easy monetary measures given sluggish economy and low inflation.<br /><br />The US Fed’s Beige Book released this morning showed domestic economy grew at an only mild pace during late July-August as strong labor market did not push up salary and prices significantly. Most regional Feds expect US economy to grow at mild tempo in the near future. </p>
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