LME aluminium to still under downward pressure

<p>LME aluminium suffered a 4-day losing streak and will fall further to USD 1,605-1,630/mt today, with eyes on the ECB meeting. <br /><br />SHFE 1609 aluminium has stabilized at above the 40-day and 60-day moving averages, and will rise to RMB 12,300-12,450/mt. In China&rsquo;s spot aluminium market, spot premiums of RMB 40-80/mt are expected over SHFE 1608 aluminium contract.<br /><br /><strong>Key macroeconomic indicators for base metal prices</strong> <br /><br />Diverging trend will continue on base metal market on Thursday with eyes on rate decision by the ECB, US June existing home sales and July Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia manufacturing index. <br /><br />US Federal Reserve Bank of New York manufacturing index weakened significantly in July. Should the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia manufacturing index be also negative in July, expectation for a rate hike by US Fed will cool rapidly. This will weigh on US dollar. &nbsp;<br /><br />US June housing starts and building permits were optimistic, a reflection of US robust property market. Should the existing home sales due for release today be upbeat, US dollar will get boost.<br /><br />Attention will be on rate decision by the ECB and speeches delivered by Draghi today. The effect form UK&rsquo;s leave on EU triggers expectation for fresh loose policies by the ECB. But the ECB may take a wait-and-see stance when releasing new measures considering the uncertainty of influences of UK&rsquo;s leave from EU.</p>