LME aluminium to remain under downward pressure
LME aluminium will range USD 1,635-1,655/mt today with resistance at USD 1,650/mt and technical side trending negative.
SHFE 1610 aluminium will struggle between RMB 12,300-12,500/mt.
In east China’s spot aluminium market, spot premiums of RMB 0-40/mt are expected over SHFE 1608 aluminium contract. Supply stays abundant while demand is soft, leading to oversupply pressure.
Key macroeconomic indicators for base metal prices
Swing trend will continue on base metal market on Thursday with focus on China’s social financing for July and new RMB loans, and US last week’s initial jobless claims.
Housing sales in China slow further in July and falling demand for housing loans will lead to declines in new RMB loans in July. The PBOC mainly withdrew net capital from market in the month, which will also drag down total social financing.
Should US last week’s initial jobless claims recover further, US labour market outlook will continue stabilizing. This will boost US dollar.
US inflation shows sign of marked recovery, which can be reflected by the three straight month’s growth in the annualized core CPI. As such, the import price index for July will likely improve.
Attention is turning to the EIA report. Should the report be negative, the oil futures for September delivery may drop below USD 40/bbl.
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