Japan’s aluminium premiums climb in first three quarters of 2026 before Q4 decline

Japan’s quarterly aluminium premiums, known as Main Japanese Port (MJP) premiums, rose sharply in the first nine months of 2026 before falling ahead of the fourth quarter. The premium increased from USD 195 per tonne in January-March to USD 350-353 per tonne in April-June. It then reached USD 395 per tonne in July-September, its highest level in 11 years, as supply remained tight and geopolitical tensions affected the market.

The Q1 2026 settlement was around 127 per cent higher than the USD 86 per tonne recorded in Q4 2025. The premium rose by another 79-81 per cent in Q2 and increased by a further 12-13 per cent in Q3.

Tight aluminium supplies, lower inventories and competition from buyers in Europe and the US have contributed to the rise. Premiums in both markets have also remained high. Disruptions to trade routes and higher shipping and insurance costs have added to concerns about supplies to Asia.

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For Q2, producers initially offered premiums of USD 220-250 per tonne. Offers then rose sharply as concerns grew over shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Japanese buyers eventually agreed to a premium of USD 350 per tonne.

Producers raised their offers again for Q3. South32 proposed USD 480 per tonne, while Rio Tinto offered USD 460 per tonne. However, the final settlement was lower, at USD 395 per tonne.

The market began to change ahead of Q4. Offers for October-December shipments fell from USD 325 per tonne in early September to USD 245-260 per tonne as the quarter approached. The decline came amid weak demand and rising inventories across Asia.

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Premiums have also fallen in South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan, while Vietnam and Thailand have held up better. Buyers across the region remain cautious and are mostly purchasing aluminium to meet their immediate needs.

Japan’s premiums rose through the first three quarters of 2026 but have since come under pressure. Tight supplies and geopolitical tensions pushed premiums to an 11-year high earlier in the year. Now, weaker demand and rising inventories are weighing on premiums across Asia.