In 2013 Aluminium production worldwide rise to more than 46 million tonnes

In the production of primary aluminium IKB Deutsche Industriebank, Düsseldorf, Germany, expects global growth to more than 46 million tonnes for 2013. The IKB presents this assessment in its current report on price trends for commodities in October 2013.

According to the IKB, primary aluminium production until the end of August 2013 was strongly defined by expansion in China (+10 %), which compensated for declines in other regions. Warehouse stocks at the LME last amounted to almost 5.4 million tonnes, and those at the SHFE roughly 0.23 million tonnes. Investors had expanded their contracts by around 30% in expectation of price increases. However, warehouse stocks would limit the potential for price increases, according to the IKB.

Also according the IKB, world commodities experienced a slight increase over time (+0.3 %). Because of a slight upward revaluation of the euro there was sideways movement in the domestic currency. Especially in the first half of September, there was much concern in the markets about possible military intervention in Syria. However, over coming weeks the international commodity markets will be watching developments in the USA. If the budget freeze goes on, it could mean a dip in purchasing power and a drop in private consumption, which could especially affect crude oil sales. But since temporary insolvency also threatens the USA mid-October, if no lasting solution to the budget dispute is found, this could also put pressure on important industrial commodities, despite an improvement in the overall economic conditions, according to the IKB.