Fall in SHFE aluminium dampens trading in East China Market, August output expected to drop

SHFE 1709 aluminium dropped RMB 150 /t after opening on Tuesday, and then recovered some losses before closing. Though there was enough buying and selling in the East China market, overall trading was slow.  Traders were in a wait-and-see mode, while downstream producers bought the metal following the drop in price. Mainstream traded prices for SHFE 1709 aluminium ranged between RMB 16,060-16,070/t in Shanghai, RMB16,060-16,070 /t in Wuxi, and RMB16,070-16,090 /t in Hangzhou. 

SMM expects August aluminium output in China to stand at 3.08 million tonnes in August, up 12.6% YoY, but less than 3.12 million tonnes of aluminium output in July. Annualized aluminium capacity in operation expected to be down slightly to 36.20 million tonnes.  

According to IAI, primary aluminium output outside China totalled 2.17 million tonnes in July, higher than June’s 2.1 million tonnes, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. The average daily primary aluminium output outside China remained unchanged from June at 70,100 tonnes in July. 

On the other hand, China’s Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP) is bent on correcting the environmental situation in China and passed six supporting programs for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Surrounding Regions Air Pollution Comprehensive Treatment Action Program during Winter 2017 2018.

Despite government’s efforts, the capacity cut will be offset by new capacities coming online in the second half of 2017.

Inner Mongolia Mengtai Coal Power Group has announced that the first phase of its new aluminium plant with an annual capacity of 100,000 tonnes will come online in November this year and the  rest 400,000 tonnes will be commissioned later.