China’s aluminum demand to surge 34% in 2016-20 on growth in transport sector: CNIA

China’s aluminum consumption is expected to surge 34% in the 13th Five-Year Plan period (2016-20), on anticipated demand growth by the transport industry, a source with China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association said Wednesday.

CNIA forecast China’s aluminum demand to reach a maximum 44 million mt/year by 2020, up from an estimated 32.8 million mt/year in 2016, with the zenith value of 44 million mt/year to sustain for a long period of time after 2020.

Besides demand from the traditional aluminum-consuming industry - the construction sector - the CNIA source told Platts that the transport sector, including new energy vehicles (Nevs, or vehicles partially or wholly powered by electricity), lighter weight vehicles, airplane manufacturing, aluminum alloy flyovers - is also expected to be a principal driver of domestic aluminum consumption in the next few years.

China’s new energy vehicles’ output and sales volume in January-October hit 181,225 and 171,145 units, surging 2.7 times and 2.9 times year on year, figures from Ministry of Commerce showed.

State-owned Chinese metals consultancy Beijing Antaike, CNIA’s affiliate, forecast China’s per capita aluminum consumption to reach 30 kg by 2020, up from 17.4 kg back in 2012. It attributed the consumption growth to mainland China’s ongoing urbanization.