Aluminium demand to grow by 6pct in 2012-14

IMaCS, in its commentary on Indian aluminium industry said that over the medium term the sectors that are likely to drive the expected increase in demand include power, construction and automotives. India’s aluminium consumption increased 7% in 2011 to around 1.6 MT and at a 5 year CAGR of 8%.

The bulk of India’s demand is accounted for by the electrical sector followed by transport, machinery and packaging. By comparison, globally, the use of aluminium by major sectors stands at transport equipment, building and construction, packaging, electrical and machinery.

The IMaCS said that India’s primary aluminium production capacity is expected to increase from 1.7 million tonnes per annum at present to 4.7 million tonne per annum by end FY2017 with much of the forecast expansion in capacity and production targeted for export markets. Aluminium production capacity is forecast to increase by 8.7 million tonne per annum to 13.3 million tonne per annum with around 4 million tonne per annum of capacity surplus to domestic requirements.

IMaCS report that although India’s annual per capita aluminium consumption has increased from 0.6 kilogram in 1996 to 1.3 kilogram in 2011 it is around 10% of China’s per capita consumption of 13 kilogram. India’s per capita consumption is unlikely to increase at the same rate as China because of lower share of industrial sector in India’s GDP and lower proportion of manufactured products in India’s merchandise exports.

World primary aluminium consumption aggregated 42.4 million tonnes in 2011, making aluminium the world’s second most used metal after iron. Over 2007 to 2011 world aluminium consumption grew by an estimated compounded average growth rate of 4.6%.