28 JUNE 2016Shanghai Metals Market
55% Chinese aluminium smelters see aluminium prices rise this week
Edited by : AL CIRCLE
1 min read
SMM surveyed 44 Chinese aluminium smelters about their opinions over aluminium price outlook.
About 55 per cent of them expect SHFE 1608 aluminium to hold above RMB 12,300/mt and LME aluminium return to USD 1,630/mt. First, aluminium stocks in China’s five major markets fell 26,000 mt to 337,000 mt as of Monday. Second, longs are taking the upper hand.
Another 27 per cent expect SHFE 1608 aluminium to fluctuate at RMB 12,100-12,300/mt and LME aluminium move at USD 1,600-1,630/mt. First, UK leave vote may force the US Fed to delay interest rate hike process. Second, middle rate of Chinese yuan broke through 6.63 against US dollar on Monday, the lowest since 2011. This will trigger big volatility in base metals. Third, falling stocks in the market will allow aluminium smelters to hold back goods at lows.
The 18 per cent are bearish that SHFE 1608 aluminium will fall below RMB 12,100/mt and LME aluminium will drop below USD 1,600/mt. First, many aluminium processors said orders fell sharply due to onset of the off-season. Second, output release from new and restarted aluminium capacity will add to supply pressure.
About 55 per cent of them expect SHFE 1608 aluminium to hold above RMB 12,300/mt and LME aluminium return to USD 1,630/mt. First, aluminium stocks in China’s five major markets fell 26,000 mt to 337,000 mt as of Monday. Second, longs are taking the upper hand.
Another 27 per cent expect SHFE 1608 aluminium to fluctuate at RMB 12,100-12,300/mt and LME aluminium move at USD 1,600-1,630/mt. First, UK leave vote may force the US Fed to delay interest rate hike process. Second, middle rate of Chinese yuan broke through 6.63 against US dollar on Monday, the lowest since 2011. This will trigger big volatility in base metals. Third, falling stocks in the market will allow aluminium smelters to hold back goods at lows.
The 18 per cent are bearish that SHFE 1608 aluminium will fall below RMB 12,100/mt and LME aluminium will drop below USD 1,600/mt. First, many aluminium processors said orders fell sharply due to onset of the off-season. Second, output release from new and restarted aluminium capacity will add to supply pressure.
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