2024 forecast on China's car sales suggests the transportation sector to be the driving force for aluminium demand

According to the data released by the China Automobile Association, China’s automobile production and sales in November 2023 increased month-on-month by 7 per cent and 4.1 per cent, respectively, to stand at 3.093 million units and 2.97 million units. On a year-on-year calculation, they stood significantly higher by 29.4 per cent and 27.4 per cent, respectively.

Of the total units sold, 2.488 million cars were sold domestically, reflecting a month-on-month rise of 5.2 per cent and a year-on-year hike of 24.3 per cent. The rest 482,000 tonnes were exported, down by 11 per cent month-on-month and up by 46.3 per cent year-on-year.

At the 2024 China Automobile Market Development Forecast Summit, Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, shared his projection that at the end of 2023, China’s automobile sales would be about 30 million units, marking an 11.7 per cent rise year-on-year.

Among them, passenger car sales are expected to amount to 26 million units, commercial vehicles about 4 million units, and new energy vehicles nearly 9.4 million units.

In 2024, China’s vehicle sales are estimated to grow further to around 31 million units, including 26.8 million unit passenger cars, 4.2 million commercial vehicles, 11.5 million new energy vehicles, and the remaining 5.5 million units to be exported.

These figures suggest that the transportation sector has been a major driving factor for the domestic aluminium demand in China, offsetting the slow demand trend amid the weak building and construction sector.

The AL Circle team has estimated the transportation sector to continue to primarily drive the growth of aluminium demand in 2024, not only in China but across the globe, based on its extensive research and consultation with industry experts. Among all the end-use sectors, transportation, particularly electric vehicles will steer the global aluminium market.