Normally, the NBS consolidates production data for January and February to minimise distortions caused by the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday, which usually falls in either of the two months, Mysteel Global notes.
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On a daily basis, primary aluminium output nationwide averaged 127,627 tonnes during the first two months of the year, rising by 2.9 per cent on year, Mysteel Global calculated based on the NBS figures.
The increase in output was largely associated with the relatively higher operation rates among Chinese primary aluminium smelters during the two months compared with the same period of the previous year, market watchers said. Most smelters had maintained stable production over the period, even during the nine-day CNY holiday from February 15-23.
Mysteel's survey showed that the average capacity utilisation rate among the 89 domestic smelters it regularly tracks reached 97.02 per cent during January-February, up 1.15 percentage points from the same period last year.
During the January-February period, enthusiasm for production among the domestic smelters was also supported by stronger aluminium prices. According to Mysteel's price assessment, over the two months, the national average spot price for primary aluminium ingots with a minimum purity of 99.7 per cent was RMB 23,803.5 per tonne ($3,449.5 per tonne), including the 13 per cent VAT, up 17.3 per cent from the same period in 2025.
The bullish market sentiment has lifted aluminium prices in both the spot and futures markets since the start of the year, with the mood buoyed by expectations of stronger base metals demand amid an increasingly uncertain global geopolitical environment. On February 27, the most-traded April aluminium futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed the daytime trading session at RMB 23,835 per tonne, higher by a large 15.5 per cent from the price at the end of February 2025.
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