30 JULY 2026 MYSTEEL

China weekly molten aluminium consumption falls to 545,050 tonne; semis constrained in off-season

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Data from Mysteel shows that domestic primary aluminium-based semi-products consumed 5,450.5 tonnes of molten aluminium the week ending July 23,2026, down 4,390 tonnes week-on-week. In June, domestic weekly molten aluminium consumption by aluminium semis producers maintained a steady upward trajectory, and by late June, the figure had surpassed 550,000 tonnes.

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However, as July set in, the combined impact of high temperatures and the traditional off-season led to a contraction in downstream orders. While performance varied somewhat across product categories, the overall production momentum of primary aluminium-based semi-products weakened amid the broader downturn. Enterprises have successively implemented phased production cuts and shutdowns.

In terms of weekly molten aluminium consumption share by category, aluminium bar remains the dominant segment, though its share has edged lower compared to previous periods when it exceeded 60 per cent. Meanwhile, driven by strong demand since Q2, aluminium rod output has continued to expand, and the share rising from 13–14 per cent to 17 per cent.

Cast-rolled coils, slabs, and primary aluminium-based alloys have maintained relatively stable proportional shares. Mysteel's total weekly semis output for this period came in at 608,460 tonnes, down 4,380 tonnes from the prior week, with all five major product categories registering output declines.

Notably, aluminium bar posted the largest percentage decline among the five categories. A survey of over 140 sampled bar producers identified scheduled maintenance and shutdowns as the key drivers behind the output contraction. During this cycle, individual plants in Qinghai and Guizhou were temporarily offline for maintenance. That said, some bar producers simultaneously reported production increases and restarts.

Since mid-May, inventories of finished goods at domestic primary aluminium-based semi-product plants have been on a consistent draw. As of last week, plant inventories stood at 180,550 tonnes, a cumulative decline of 41 per cent over two months. The destocking pace paused in this period, with inventories posting a slight week-on-week increase.

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Among the five categories, aluminium bar and slab inventories declined, while cast-rolled coils, aluminium rod, and primary aluminium-based alloys saw inventory builds. Aluminium rod registered the most notable increase.

As previously noted, aluminium rod consumption surged in Q2, fuelled by simultaneous strength in both domestic and export markets. This drove a sharp rise in demand and boosted producer enthusiasm, with diversified manufacturers reallocating capacity toward rods. Weekly rod output climbed steadily, surpassing 100,000 tonnes by mid-July, supported by both existing mills ramping up and new projects reaching full production.

Concurrently, plant inventories drew down aggressively, with some periods seeing stocks nearly cleared to zero. More recently, however, the fervour has cooled, earlier orders have been fulfilled, and new order inflows have slowed. Rod offtake has faced some resistance; against a backdrop of elevated output, plant inventories have risen accordingly. Data shows current rod inventories have reached over 10 thousand tonnes, up 65 per cent week-on-week.

Additionally, for cast-rolled coils and slabs, while standard-grade products have been affected by the traditional off-season, high-temperature restrictions, and routine local maintenance, which prompted producers to proactively reduce operating rates, the battery foil-oriented lines continued to run at near-full capacity. Long-term new energy contracts provide a floor that offsets the gap left by standard-grade cuts, keeping the output declines in both categories contained.

On the inventory side, downstream packaging and architectural sheet enterprises have adopted a wait-and-see approach on aluminium prices, reluctant to build bulk inventories. Consumption has slowed, leading to modest stock accumulation across South and East China distribution channels, with turnover days extending to 7–10 days.

In contrast, semis used for battery foil has operated on a make-to-order basis with rapid shipment, maintaining extremely low inventory levels of 2–3 days, with some plants near zero, showing no signs of backlog pressure.

Overall, production efficiency across the semis sector has moderated slightly. Nevertheless, output has remained elevated compared to the same period last year. The summer off-season has exacerbated demand weakness, with downstream buyers showing limited enthusiasm for procurement and restocking. Relatively high supply is not being fully absorbed by demand, and market sentiment around future consumption remains subdued. This is likely to constrain both output expansion and inventory drawdown going forward.