China's natural gas demand gains seasonal momentum as imports rebalance and domestic supply expands

China's natural gas market is entering the fourth quarter with firmer consumption fundamentals. October demand is projected to stay elevated amid heating preparation, resilient transport fuel use, and steady industrial recovery, while import dynamics show a gradual shift toward pipeline gas.

• Steady demand recovery: Industrial and residential consumption are firming as northern heating needs pick up and factory activity improves. Gas-fired power plants are maintaining high operating rates, offsetting lower hydropower output.
• Domestic output expansion: New upstream projects and efficiency gains in major producing regions supporting output stability in the near term.
• Import structure shift: Pipeline inflows are strengthening, while LNG arrivals have eased amid softer international prices and flexible contract execution.
• Pricing and inventory trends: Terminal inventories remain high into Q4, while eased import costs have narrowed the LNG-pipeline price gap, supporting competitiveness in transport and commercial sectors.

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Market outlook: 12-month rolling forecast