LME aluminium prices eased on September 28 after rising in the previous session, with cash and forward contracts moving lower. The Asian Reference Price also declined, while a sharp rise in cancelled warrants pushed live warrants lower. The cash bid slipped 0.15 per cent to USD 3,248 per tonne from USD 3,253 per tonne , while the cash offer fell 0.17 per cent to USD 3,248.50 per tonne from USD 3,254 per tonne. Three-month aluminium prices followed the weaker trend. The bid dropped 0.41 per cent to USD 3,251.50 per tonne from USD 3,265 per tonne, while the offer was down 0.46 per cent to USD 3,252 per tonne compared with USD 3,267 per tonne. Explore the production, demand and consumption forecasts of bauxite and alumina in our report: " Global Bauxite & Alumina Market Forecast to 2036:...
Futures: The most-traded SHFE aluminium contract opened at RMB 24,000 per tonne in the night session on September 28, reached a high of RMB 24,055 per tonne and a low of RMB 23,950 per tonne, and closed at RMB 24,000 per tonne, up RMB 50 per tonne or 0.21 per cent from the previous close. Futures stabilised after a sharp decline, with prices falling below the 5/10/20/40/60 moving averages across all timeframes, turning these averages from support into resistance. Trading volume during the session was 53,872 lots, with open interest at 271,000 lots, down 3,240 lots, driven mainly by bear position reductions. On the technical front, the 4-hour MACD death cross continued, with DIFF trading well below DEA and green bars expanding significantly, indicating strong short-term bearish momentum....
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Falling aluminium stocks in China will allow SHFE 1609 aluminium to stay at highs of RMB 12,500-12,700/mt today. LME aluminium will move at USD 1,645-1,670/mt, with support at the 5-day and 10-day moving averages. In China’s spot aluminium market, spot premiums of RMB 30-70/mt are expected over SHFE 1607 aluminium contract. Market will eye Germany June CPI and US May wholesale today. Germany’s final CPI is expected to rise 0.3% YoY in June, flat with preliminary figure. The IMF warned last Friday that inflation in the euro zone remains tepid and below 2% target set by the ECB. The IMF added that the euro zone is facing growing deflationary pressure from internal and external side. US wholesale in May could help investors judge US retail sales in June and July. If US wholesale falls as...
SMM surveyed 44 Chinese aluminium smelters about their opinions over aluminium price outlook. About 55 per cent of them expect SHFE 1609 aluminium to consolidate at RMB 12,450-12,600/mt and LME aluminium at USD 1,635-1,665/mt, citing two reasons. First, positive US June non-farm employment has reversed weakness since April, which is bad news for investors, given weak Chinese and European economy. Second, while longs are taking the upper hand in SHFE aluminium market, long buying is waning and short momentum is gathering. SHFE 1609 aluminium has found support at moving averages, though. Another 18% expect SHFE 1609 aluminium to hold firm at above RMB 12,600/mt and LME aluminium move at above USD 1,665/mt, citing several positive factors. First, flood has hampered aluminium ingot shipment...
Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. (Alba) reports higher metal sales in the second quarter 2016 despite the sluggish aluminium market. The total metal sales in the second quarter of 2016 are 239,739 metric tonnes (mt) compared to 232,193 mt in Q2 2015, an increase of 3.2 per cent Year-over-Year. Total production for the same period is 239,126 mt compared to 238,904 mt in the second quarter of 2015. Alba Value-Added Sales reports an average 55 per cent of total shipments in the second quarter compared to 66 per cent for the same period in 2015. Though the total production dropped year over year, the Value Added Sales average of 55 per cent reported a sequential increase from 52 per cent in the first quarter of 2016 and it exceeded 60 per cent in the month of June. “Despite tough underlying market...
Leading aluminium maker Alcoa reported its second quarter 2016 results on July11 2016. The company has separated its upstream and downstream business and the process is going to be complete by H2 2016. The separation seems promising for the company as its Arconic (Value-Add) segments grew year-over-year significantly and Alcoa Corporation (upstream) segment grew sequentially. Highlights: • Reported net income of $135 million and adjusted net income of $213 million excluding special items • Revenue of $5.3 billion, down 10 per cent from the same period of 2015 • 4 per cent rise in revenue from recent growth & acquisitions but offset by a 14 percent revenue decline • Announced sales of non-essential assets expected to generate a cash of $1.2 billion during 2016 • cash on hand $1.9 billion •...
After investing US$7.5 billion in establishing an alumina refinery and an aluminium smelter and associated power facilities in the region, Vedanta Resources plc announced late last week that it is shifting its focus in the state of Odisha. “For us, the Niyamgiri chapter is closed. We are not pursuing it anymore,” said chief executive officer of Vedanta’s aluminium business Abhijit Pati. “We have decided to realign our operations to run on imported bauxite and alumina.” Pati went on to explain that the firm would focus on optimizing costs, adding capacity, and enhancing its value-add component. It is also working to reduce the production cost of aluminium by US$400 per metric ton, down from its current cost of production in Odisha, which is US$1,900 per metric ton. As the company has no...
Big possibility of short squeeze will push SHFE 1609 aluminium up to RMB 16,520-16,700/mt on Monday, June 11. The US dollar gained favor as US non-farm payrolls hit 8-month high in June. But strong dollar will have little impact on LME aluminium. LME aluminium will move at USD 1,650-1,675/mt. In China’s spot aluminium market, spot premiums of RMB 30-70/mt are expected over SHFE 1607 aluminium contract. Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Base Metal Prices Market attention will focus on China Q2 economic data, the Bank of England (BOE)’s July policy meeting, as well as June US non-farm payrolls this week. Base metals saw big volatility in recent two weeks. Market sentiment has turned from expectations for global monetary stimulus following the UK’s decision to leave the EU to concerns over...
Alcoa is expected to report year-over-year declines in second-quarter earnings and revenue when the metals company releases the figures Monday afternoon. The company, whose report unofficially kicks off the second-quarter reporting season, is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.10 per share, down from $0.19 per share in the year-earlier period, according to analysts polled by Capital IQ. The analysts are predicting a drop in revenue as well, to $5.21 billion from $5.90 billion a year earlier. Brokerage RBC Capital Markets, however, has Alcoa’s second-quarter earnings pegged at $0.09, up slightly from the first quarter’s adjusted profit of $0.07 per share due to higher alumina and aluminium prices as well as positive improvements in the downstream business. The firm said it expects...
Chalco reversed losses and reported big profit in H1 2016 when many of its competitors were still struggling with meager profit. So, what’s the secret behind the great success? Aluminium, alumina and refined copper costs fell by 400 yuan/tonne, 2,500 yuan/tonne and 5,200 yuan/tonne, respectively, from a year ago, Chalco general manager Yu Dehui said at the semiannual meeting, the main reason behind profit. Chalco shut down outdated aluminium capacity last year, and efficient capacity from Huaxing Aluminium and Huajin Aluminium, etc., was released. This also helped improve Chalco’s competitiveness. It’s worth noting that Chalco has made great progress in aluminium processing segment. The company signed cooperation agreement with famous automakers over R&D in new materials used in...
Potential buyers have come forward for Rio Tinto Alcan’s Lochaber operations, which have been under threat since January. It was revealed this week that the company is "assessing prospective partners, investors and buyers" for the plant, which employs around 150 people. At the beginning of the year Rio Tinto announced it would be carrying out a strategic review of its assets in the region "in light of the current market prospects and economic environment". The assets include not just the aluminium smelter outside Fort William but also a hydro power station and a huge amount of land. This week a company spokesman said: "The strategic review for Lochaber is progressing well and we continue to work on a range of options. "These include the potential for the smelter continuing as a Rio Tinto...
Issues related to industrial ecology and sustainability are of paramount importance today. With rampant industrial onslaughts on the environment reaching its edge, global aluminium industry has woken up to the situation. Indian aluminium industry, which is poised to play a crucial role in redefining the country’s infrastructure scenario, is too taking the cause of sustainability rather seriously. Domestic aluminium industry players across the value chain i.e. bauxite miners, alumina refiners, aluminium smelters, aluminium extruders and aluminium recyclers are now seeking technology upgrades that would help them lower the levels of industrial effluents that are part of their respective sectoral processes. From adopting advanced red mud valorization procedure, extracting value from fly ash,...
Positive US ADP employment means US non-farm payrolls will not be bad, which will favor the US dollar. This will pile downward pressure on LME aluminium, with prices expected at USD 1,630-1,645/mt. SHFE 1609 aluminium will move at RMB 12,400-12,500/mt. In China’s spot aluminium market, spot premiums of RMB 60-100/mt are expected over SHFE 1607 aluminium contract. On Wednesday’s night trading, SHFE 1609 aluminium rose to RMB 12,625/mt after opening at RMB 12,410/mt, and closed at RMB 12,575/mt. On Thursday, the most active contract sank to RMB 12,390/mt after opening at RMB 12,580/mt due to exit of longs, and finally ended at RMB 12,460/mt. Trading volumes were up 11,108 lots to 279,126 lots, and positions were up 6,526 to 196,612. Key macroeconomic indicators for base metal prices US...
Primary aluminium exports from Brazil advanced 25.6 per cent to 30,681 tonnes in June as compared to 24,435 tonnes in the same month last year, according to latest figures from Brazil’s foreign trade ministry, MDIC. Meanwhile, revenues from primary aluminium exports in June increased only 2.2 per cent year-on-year to $46.9 million, MDIC data showed.
Aluminium supply in south and east China will tighten further as transport has been several affected by days of torrential rains, SMM expects. SMM learned that aluminium ingot shipments from smelters in northwest China, including Qingtongxia Aluminum and Gansu Aluminum, will be delayed by 4-5 days.
China Aluminum International Trading Co. (Chalco Trading) raised aluminium prices in major markets today after yesterday’s deep cut, it said on its WeChat. For details, please see the table below: Unit: yuan/tonne Note: Chalco Trading is a full subsidiary under Chalco responsible for alumina and aluminum sales.
Momentum is holding above 0, suggesting the uptrend remains in place. ADX is above 20, suggesting the trend is strong. Analysis • Aluminium continues higher after finding strong support at its key daily moving averages in June. While it has solid positive momentum, we believe a fresh 2016 high is possible in July. • On the upside, aluminium’s next challenge is to take out its the 2016 high to maintain the upward trend. On the downside, a clear break below the 20 DMA could reflect a negative in swing in sentiment, which in turn would lead to further downside toward the 100 DMA, its UTL and its 2015 low. Macro drivers Aluminium is more volatile but is unchanged since Monday after rising for a fourth straight week last week. The recent consolidation across base metals may stem from resurgent...
SHFE 1609 aluminium should grow to RMB 12,500-12,700/mt today with positive technical indicators. Eyes will be on US June ADP employment data due for release tonight. LME aluminium will move at USD 1,640-1,660/mt. In China’s spot aluminium market, spot premiums of RMB 40-80/mt are expected over SHFE 1607 aluminium contract. Key macroeconomic indicators for base metal prices Base metals mostly closed with gains overnight. Market expectations toward easy monetary measures worldwide will support base metals prices, but fundamentals are still weak. ADP’s June employment data in June are expected to fall, but US job market will likely pick up in June. The numbers of initial jobless claims in June remained low. Markit’s manufacturing PMI job sub-indice in June hit 52.3, the highest since...
Century Aluminum Company announced today that it has renegotiated a market-based agreement with a third-party supplier to provide approximately 75 per cent of the power requirements for the Mt. Holly, South Carolina smelter. The remaining 25 per cent of Mt. Holly's power requirement will continue to be supplied by Santee Cooper. The new market-based power agreement will allow Mt. Holly to continue to operate at half capacity while it seeks a competitive long-term arrangement. "We are proud of the team at Mt. Holly, who have operated the plant safely and efficiently during these highly uncertain times," commented Michael Bless, Century's President and CEO. "We have regrettably not been able to achieve an agreement for full market power access; such a structure is required for Mt. Holly's...
Aluminium net shipments (including exports) by domestic U.S. and Canadian facilities totalled an estimated 1,967 million pounds during May, up 2.4 per cent over the May 2015 total of 1,922 million pounds. Shipments of aluminium mill products decreased six-tenths of one percent from the previous year to 1,315 million pounds, while shipments of aluminium ingot for castings, exports and destructive uses increased 8.8 per cent year-over-year, totalling 652 million pounds. Preliminary producer shipments through May 2016 totalled 9,855 million pounds, up 2.7 per cent over the same period last year. May inventory levels totalled an estimated 2,832 million pounds, down 1.3 per cent from the previous month and down 6.5 per cent year-over-year.
