For a sustainable world, a linear economy is no more desirable but needs to evolve into a circular green one, as per Circular Aluminium Action Plan and Green Deal 2050, Fabrizio Ciampoli, CEO, Ciampoli Consulting

AlCircle: Can you give us your view of the actual status of the Aluminium market in the EU?

Mr Fabrizio Ciampoli: After 2020 with a lockdown due to Covid19 we are finally seeing a global recovery: this is definitely a positive trend but, as a downside, prices of raw materials are at their highest, including AL.

Together with LME and high premium EU is living an increase of packaging and transport costs which are seriously worrying European and Italian producers, in particular, being our country specialized in transformation and constructions.

This situation is also a consequence of China recovery (Pil up to 18.5% Q1-2021) and the USA economy in fast growth thanks to hedge funds.

In Europe, there is a lack of primary AL and particularly automakers are struggling to find enough aluminium. Delivery times are very long and transportation prices are rising and LME at its highest with a premium of around 900 pushes buyers to order excess quantities of metal. Of course, this exacerbates the strain on the availability of material.

For Italy, for example, recovery is pushed by Superbonus 110% which generated a fast restart of building & construction field; Italian AL's sector processes more or less 2 million tonnes/year equally divided between die casting, rolling and extrusion and roughly 600,000 tons for extruded profiles, shaded, windows and interior design. 

AlCircle: What is your forecast for the performance of the Aluminium market in the second half of 2021?

Mr Fabrizio Ciampoli: The first and second lockdown caused a crisis much deeper than the 2008's one and 2020 was the result of a negative scenario mixed with uncertainty which in the end led to a contraction of demand and consumption of AL EUROPE.

Nevertheless, AL represents something like 1% of global GDP corresponding to roughly USD 800 billion and due to the shutdown of smelters and refineries, cutting of production will lead to an increase in demand in 2021, which I expect between +5%-8% compared to 2019. 

There is a lack of raw material and demand is much higher than supply: meantime LME is at its highest and premium has never been so high since 2009, when LME was low and needed to be offset. 

AlCircle: The lack of primary AL in Europe is an issue. What is your position regarding the role of recycled AL in the European Circular Economy? 

Mr Fabrizio Ciampoli: The fundamental role played by aluminium in the ecological transition and protection of the environment is a matter of fact. We all know that to produce primary AL a consistent quantity of energy is required: in order to obtain AL from scrap/recycle only 5% of the energy necessary to produce primary AL is enough. 

I think this is already a first good reason but not the only one. 

Recycle AL is a smart choice for several reasons. The production of AL coming from scrap still keeps its high performance in terms of efficiency, decarbonisation and sustainability; this is possible because scrap is remelted with chemical elements to produce alloys with high performance and purity, a recycled aluminium form ingots akin to primary AL.

I think that in meeting EU goals on decarbonisation and green sustainability key factors are: 

• recycle of AL rather than chose primary AL (it saves energy to the planet and leads to a sustainable world)
• since 1990 EU production of primary AL decreased CO2 emission up to 55%
• CO2 equivalent from recycled AL is 40 times lower than primary 

Several fields can benefit in terms of performance, costs and applications:

Transport, building & constructions, technological innovation, packaging.

These are areas in which much of the change can be achieved.

The objective is to reduce emissions and push towards recycling. 

For a sustainable world, a linear economy is no more desirable but needs to evolve into a circular green one, as per Circular Aluminium Action Plan and Green Deal 2050.

AlCircle: You lead Ciampoli Consulting, a consultancy company with specific knowledge in AL. What is the role of companies like you’re in this scenario?

Mr Fabrizio Ciampoli: We have been on the market since 2002 and thanks to this experience we are able to develop strategies and business plans identifying players, opportunities and information required for profitable synergies and projects. 

Our major areas of expertise are business network development, market research, trading, and venture capital advisory. Our experience originates from AL but developed and widened toward all market segments.

If a client is considering an investment in a new production facility, we can support with case studies and determine the best geographic markets and business size to target in order to achieve the objective quickly and profitably. 

We support investors and operators of existing plants to diversify product range evaluating best margins with minimal, if not any, additional investment at all, improving profitability. 

We support clients who need a market analysis and benchmarking to evaluate the best strategies before making any step towards new business opportunities. We like to create co-ownerships with our clients and we are paid when the result is achieved, with mutual satisfaction.

Our business is developed around aluminium: we deal with all aspects of the procurement of VAP and aluminium products.

Globalization is an opportunity that we already developed and now we are available to help clients do the same.