"China’s 2025-2027 action plan aims to boost clean energy adoption to over 30 per cent, increase recycled aluminium production beyond 15 million tonnes, and improve energy efficiency across at least 30 per cent of capacity by 2027,” Michelle Leung, Head of Asia Metals & Mining, Sustainability, at Bloomberg
Michelle Leung is the Head of Asia Metals and Mining, Sustainability at Bloomberg Intelligence, where she conducts comprehensive research on key metals in Asia, with a particular focus on China and an active speaker at global conferences. Prior to her current role, Michelle served as an ESG Analyst who specialized in climate-related ESG strategies and analysis, as well as ESG integration research and data, including ESG Scores. she took the lead in the ESG committee at Women in Finance Asia.
Before working for Bloomberg, Michelle worked for various international and Chinese Investment banks. Her areas of expertise extend across sectors such as metals and mining and utilities in Asia. Notably, she has been recognized as one of the top-ranked analysts for institutional investor and Asiamoney. She graduated from the University of Michigan's Ross School of Business and holds a Certified ESG Analyst designation from EFFAS (2022).
The AL Circle team recently had a conversation with Michelle, wherein she shared valuable insights into the sustainability efforts within the Asian aluminium industry. She noted that China is targeting a clean energy share of over 30 per cent while aiming to increase aluminium production to more than 15 million tonnes. Looking ahead, she identifies India as the market poised for the strongest aluminium demand growth in Asia by 2025.
To explore these insights in more details, read the full interview below.
AL Circle: Could you share an update on the progress of sustainability initiatives within Asia’s metals and mining sector, particularly in the aluminium industry? Which Asian country stands out as the most committed to sustainability?
Michelle Leung: Aluminium ranks second only to steel in greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for around 1 per cent of the global total, as well as significant energy consumption. This makes the promotion of low-carbon aluminium a clear priority worldwide. While Bloomberg ESG rankings highlight western producers as leading in low-carbon aluminium, Asia’s aluminium industry is making strong progress toward sustainability. China’s 2025-2027 action plan aims to boost clean energy adoption to over 30 per cent, increase recycled aluminium production beyond 15 million tonnes, and improve energy efficiency across at least 30 per cent of capacity by 2027. Indonesia and India are also advancing, with major industry players committing to net-zero targets and expanding renewable energy use. In Indonesia, INALUM, Alumindo, and multinationals like China Hongqiao Group and Daiki Aluminium Industry are leveraging hydropower. Low-carbon aluminium refers to aluminium produced through cleaner refining and smelting processes, using renewable energy sources instead of carbon-fired methods, along with inert anodes that prevent CO₂ emissions.
AL Circle: What progress has been made in the shift towards renewable energy for aluminium production in Asia? Could you provide data on the proportion of renewable energy currently used by aluminium producers across the region?
Michelle Leung: We have done a study before comparing the renewable energy consumption ratio of few companies including INALUM, CHALCO, Hongqiao and Hindalco, in which, Indonesia’s INALUM was the highest at 98 per cent, while the others range from 16- 48 per cent. While those numbers have been improving, they are still far below international players such as Alcoa, Norsk Hydro and Rio Tinto’s 67- 87 per cent.
AL Circle: In the downstream aluminium industry, incorporating recycled content and adopting advanced technologies are considered the key ways to sustainability. How can the upstream value chain enhance its sustainability efforts and contribute to carbon reduction?
Michelle Leung: The upstream value chain of aluminium—covering bauxite mining, alumina refining, and primary aluminium production—has significant opportunities to enhance sustainability and reduce carbon emissions. Shifting aluminium smelting operations from coal- powered electricity to renewable energy like hydropower is one important step helping to cut emissions. Besides that, inserting anode technology by using materials that don’t degrade could help to eliminate the CO2 emissions due to carbon anodes. Alumina refining is very energy intensive too. Technologies like mechanical vapor recompression (MVR) recycle waste heat could help to reduce emissions and boost efficiency. Last but not least, installing carbon capture and storage could help to trap emission from refining and smelting too, yet it could be very costly.
The upstream aluminium value chain—encompassing bauxite mining, alumina refining, and primary aluminium production—offers significant opportunities to enhance sustainability and reduce carbon emissions. One crucial step is transitioning aluminium smelting operations from coal-powered electricity to renewable sources like hydropower, which can substantially cut emissions. Additionally, advancing anode technology by using non-degrading materials could eliminate CO₂ emissions associated with traditional carbon anodes.
Alumina refining is also highly energy-intensive. Implementing technologies such as mechanical vapor recompression (MVR), which recycles waste heat, can help improve efficiency while reducing emissions. Lastly, carbon capture and storage (CCS) could further mitigate emissions from refining and smelting processes, though its high costs remain a challenge.
AL Circle: China has neared its production cap of 45 million tonnes, while at the same time experiencing constant demand growth. How do you think the country will meet the rising demand with restricted output?
Michelle Leung: Introduced in 2017 to curb overcapacity, this policy has now brought China’s operating capacity close to its limit. To meet rising demand, smelters should prioritise technological advancements that enhance efficiency and maximise output.
Some smelters are integrating robotic systems and AI-driven process controls to optimise production, while innovations in sorting and purification techniques can improve the quality of recycled aluminium. Expanding the use of high-quality recycled aluminium will be able to offset the need for primary production. Innovations in sorting and purification techniques will be essential to ensuring recycled aluminium meets industry standards.
Some companies have actually shifted their production to other countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, etc. While it would allow the company to expand, they might enjoy lower production cost and the benefits of market and resource diversification too. China may as well increase imports of primary aluminium to close the supply gap. That way could reduce the carbon footprint of China too.
AL Circle: The United States and China have mutually agreed to hit a pause to their tariff war. Do you think this move primarily benefits the US, given the shutdown of its aluminium plants, or does it also offer relief to China by easing the pressure to urgently find alternative markets?
Michelle Leung: The tariffs on aluminium and steel imports remain unchanged, as the new policy does not include Section 301 tariffs. However, it may ease pressure on China’s downstream aluminium sectors. The impact on Chinese aluminium plants remains minimal, as tariffs remain high at 60 per cent, and the U.S. accounts for less than 1 per cent of China’s total primary aluminium exports.
The positive effects on downstream industries—such as home appliances, electric vehicles (EVs), and solar cells—could be more pronounced than on the primary aluminium industry itself. In particular, air conditioner exports to the U.S. have declined sharply, with the U.S. share dropping from 25 per cent to 10 per cent post-tariffs. Yet, we already see some US orders resumed post easing of tariff war. Meanwhile, the impact on EVs remains minimal, as China continues to be the world’s largest auto exporter, with passenger EV sales rising 38 per cent in March. After-all, only 2 per cent of China’s vehicle exports were shipped to the U.S., limiting the direct effect on Chinese carmakers.
For the U.S., aluminium production is expected to continue declining, while imports are likely to remain high over the coming years. Domestic aluminium supply is insufficient to meet demand, with net imports accounting for 44 per cent of total consumption in 2023. Even if new U.S. plants are built, the process would take considerable time. Additionally, volatile power costs could pose a significant challenge for aluminium and steel producers, as securing long-term power supply contracts remains difficult in the fragmented market. As a result, the U.S. will likely continue to rely heavily on imports, driving higher costs for consumers.
AL Circle: Which Asian country do you think will be the main driver of aluminium demand in 2025? And which industrial sector is likely to contribute most to this growth?
Michelle Leung: India is expected to see the strongest aluminium demand growth in Asia in 2025, with consumption projected to rise by 9 per cent, driven by rapid economic expansion, government-led infrastructure initiatives, and a growing automotive sector. Meanwhile, China, accounting for nearly 60 per cent of global aluminium consumption, is anticipated to record 3.3 per cent growth, a slowdown from 4.3 per cent in 2024. Together, both nations will contribute to widening the global aluminium market deficit.
India’s automotive industry has firmly established itself as the third-largest market globally in terms of sales, surpassing Japan and trailing only China and the US. Additionally, aluminium plays a crucial role in India’s power transmission and distribution sector, which accounts for 48 per cent of its total consumption. The Central Electricity Authority has outlined plans to expand transmission capacity by 16,600 circuit kilometres in the current financial year, further supporting aluminium demand. Moreover, India’s ambitious goal of reaching 500 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030 is expected to sustain long-term aluminium consumption growth.
Note: The data and information presented here were provided by Michelle Leung of Bloomberg. AL Circle has published the interview without making any edits or alterations to the original content.
