China alumina prices seen rangebound as supply cuts, high stocks cap gains

In October 2026, China's domestic alumina spot prices continued their downward trend. The monthly weighted average price of alumina was RMB 2,666 per tonne, down RMB 24 per tonne from the previous month, or 0.89 per cent month-on-month (M-o-M). In early October, despite significant cost-related losses across the industry, most refineries maintained strong production stability and supply guarantees ahead of annual contract negotiations. Some aluminium smelters believed the downside for alumina prices was narrowing and that risks of large-scale production adjustments existed; thus, their willingness to inquire and restock increased in the short term. However, with overall supply still exceeding demand, some sellers continued to make shipment at low prices, driving both spot transactions and...