LME aluminium to stay neutral at US$1,928-1,939/t; SHFE aluminium will drop

LME aluminium is gaining in momentum. The light metal, as expected, climbed up to US$1,923 per tonne on Thursday, July 27, from its earlier close of US$1,923 per tonne. However, the uptrend is going to slow down in the short term as the metal contract faces strong resistance above US$1,950 per tonne.

Reuters’ technical analysis suggests that LME aluminium will stay neutral in the range of US$1,928-1,939 per tonne, and any movement beyond this range could indicate at a direction.

According to Shanghai Metals Market forecast, LME aluminium will fall back in the range of US$1,930-US$1,950 per tonne on Friday, July 28.

As on July 27, LME official cash buyer aluminium price (Bid Price) stands at US$1,922.50 per tonne, cash seller & settlement aluminium price (Offer price) is US$1,923 per tonne, 3M Bid Price is US$1,943 per tonne, 3M Offer Price is US$1,944 per tonne, Dec1 Bid Price is US$1,985 per tonne, and Dec1 Offer Price is US$1,990 per tonne. LME aluminium Opening Stock stands at 1367875 tonnes, total Live Warrants is 1063750 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrant is 304125 tonnes.

LME aluminium premiums remain unchanged across major regions globally. As on July 27, LME aluminium premium for the US stands at US$165, LME Aluminium West-Europe Premium stands at US$80, LME Aluminium East Asia Premium remains unchanged at US$15, and LME Aluminium South-East Asia Premium is US$15 (per tonne).  

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SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend

The benchmark aluminium price at Shanghai Metal Exchange (SME) has inched up from US$2,111 per tonne on Thursday, July 27, to US$2,114 per tonne on Friday, July 28.

At Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), the most active aluminium future contract SHFE 1709 aluminium opened at RMB 14,470 per tonne on Thursday, July 27, and then fell to RMB 14,400 per tonne. Later, the contract rallied to RMB 14,460 per tonne before ending down at RMB 14,435 per tonne. SMM predicts that SHFE 1709 aluminium will fluctuate in the range of RMB 14,400-14,530 per tonne on Friday, July 28, due to poor fundamentals.

Spot aluminium in east China market is expected to trade at discounts of RMB 180-140 per tonne over SHFE 1708 aluminium on Friday.

The market focus will be on Euro zone’s economic climate index movement, quarterly rate of annualized US GDP, Annualized US core PCE price index quarterly rate, and Manufacturing PMI on Friday, SMM said.