LME aluminium crosses US$1,900/t mark as dollar stays weak; short-term rally expected

LME aluminium crossed the US$1,900 per tonne mark for the second time this year as the US dollar stayed soft on Friday, March 17. The contract closed at US$1,901 per tonne after night trading, edging higher by 0.31 per cent from its previous close of US$1,895 per tonne on Thursday. As Reuters observes, LME aluminium is neutral in a range of US$1,891-US$1,916 per tonne, and an escape could suggest a direction. Shanghai Metals Market predicts, the contract will hover at highs on Monday, March 20, and will trade at US$1,890-1,943 per tonne.

As on March 17, LME official cash buyer price of aluminium stands at US$1,900 per tonne, cash seller & settlement price is US$1,901 per tonne, 3M buyer price is US$1,910.50 per tonne, 3M seller price is US$1,911 per tonne, Dec1 buyer price is US$1,945 per tonne, and Dec1 seller price is US$1,950 per tonne. The current LME official Opening Stock of aluminium is estimated at 1996000 tonnes, total Live Warrants is 1269475 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrant is 726525 tonnes.

As on March 16, LME Aluminium US Premium remains unchanged at US$215, LME Aluminium West-Europe Premium stands at US$95, LME Aluminium East-Asia Premium is US$100 and LME Aluminium South-East Asia Premium is US$15 (per tonne).

The benchmark price of aluminium on Shanghai Metal Exchange (SME) on Monday, March 20, is holding steady at US$1,964 per tonne, marginally lower from its earlier stand at US$1,969 per tonne.

Aluminium traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE)- SHFE 1705 aluminum dropped after starting at RMB 13,875 per tonne. The contract closed at RMB 13,760 per tonne as volumes dropped to 253,426 lots and positions rose 1,928 to 303,128. SMM says SHFE 1705 aluminium will range between RMB 13,650-14,000 per tonne on Monday.

Spot aluminium in China's domestic market will trade at discounts of RMB 210-170 per tonne on Monday, says SMM.

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Base metal market players will get to see a light economic data schedule on Monday. Focus should be on Germany’s February PPI on an annual basis and February Chicago Fed national activity index. Attention should also be on Eurozone’s Finance Minister meeting and Bank of England Deputy Governor’s speech, summarized SMM.

The Ministry of Industry & Information Technology (MIIT) said it expects China’s nonferrous metals output to rise 4.8 per cent in 2017, reported industry sources.