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Momentum around Century Aluminum Company has picked up sharply in recent months, with a mix of operational progress and market enthusiasm driving attention towards the aluminium producer.

The company’s shares recently touched a high of USD 55.75 before settling around USD 54.27, pushing its market capitalisation to roughly USD 5.44 billion. Over the past year, the stock has climbed nearly 189 per cent, reflecting sustained buying interest. Data from InvestingPro shows a total return of about 165 per cent during the same period. In spite of the steep rally, the platform’s valuation model suggests that the stocks may still run the risks of trading below their estimated fair value, while technical indicators point to continued strength near their yearly peak. 

On the earnings front, the company reported fourth-quarter EBITDA of USD 171 million. The figure arrived at the lower end of management’s guidance, but it is aligned with the analysts’ observation, thus performing quite stably even under market volatility.

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A major strategic highlight is the company’s joint venture with Emirates Global Aluminium to construct a new primary aluminium facility in Inola, Oklahoma. With an expected annual production capacity of 750,000 tonnes, the plant would become the first new primary aluminium smelter built in the United States in nearly 50 years. The development is in line with the expansion plans of the domestic output and strengthens the country’s manufacturing base.

Brokerage firms have also adjusted their outlooks. BMO Capital raised its price target on the stock to USD 61 from USD 52 while maintaining an Outperform rating, citing anticipated improvements following the restart of the Mt. Holly facility. Also, the Texas Capital Securities initiated coverage with a Buy rating and set a USD 42 target, which indicates a potential upside from current levels.

However, the policy discussions under the Trump administration regarding possible adjustments to steel and aluminium tariffs add another layer of uncertainty, as well as an opportunity for the producers in this sector.

Considering the strong share performance, expansion plans, steady earnings, and evolving policy, this is certainly a period of heightened activity and investor confidence for Century Aluminum.

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