European Aluminium (Association) indicated that the Middle East produces around 6.8 million tonnes of aluminium per year, making it one of the largest exporters in the region, and a significant supplier to Europe. The association has prompted the EU to impose export restrictions on aluminium scrap and pause CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) until the situation stabilises. European Aluminium has said that the leaking of aluminium scrap from the region poses a threat to both recycling and the entire aluminium value chain. Notably, aluminium has been recognised as a critical mineral by the EU\u2019s Critical Raw Materials Act and by NATO, to be utilised in defence applications. The US, one of the largest primary aluminium importers, is also looking for alternatives to its suppliers in the Middle East. For now, there have been reports of strengthening relationships with partners in South America and India.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Impact on aluminium packaging<\/strong> (beverage cans)<\/h2>\n\n\n\nMost of the large aluminium beverage can producers like Ball Corporation, Ardagh Metal Packaging and Crown Holdings have a considerable presence in the US. However, the country remains dependent on the Middle East for about 21 per cent of its primary or unwrought aluminium imports, with suppliers the UAE, Bahrain and Qatar exporting about 596,000 tonnes to the US in 2025. For reference, the US\u2019 total imports for last year were 2.9 million tonnes. Since the crisis began, the Midwest Aluminium Premium increased from USD 1.03 per pound in February to USD 1.09 per pound at the end of March. Paired with an elevated LME Aluminium cash price, the Midwest Transaction Price reached an all-time high of USD 2.60 per pound. This translates to higher input costs for rolling mills across the US, which produce aluminium can sheet for the major can manufacturers mentioned before. The cost of used beverage cans, a primary raw material for recycled can sheet, has increased to USD 1.22 per pound from USD 1-1.02 per pound in just a few weeks. This may inevitably raise the cost of aluminium can production and beverages sold in cans, such as soft drinks, beer and seltzers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Brazil is also one of the largest aluminium beverage can producers in the world, accounting for about 8 per cent of global supply. While it has a domestic production capacity of 1.4 million tonnes, it also imports 218,737 tonnes of primary aluminium to meet national demand. Imports from the Middle East amounted to 12,811 tonnes in 2025, or 6 per cent of total shipments. It would seem that Brazil can easily replace this shortfall caused by the crisis. Considering that its top suppliers are in South America and East Asia. Hence, the impact of the Middle East crisis should not impact aluminium can manufacturing in Brazil. That said, the country will see an indirect effect in terms of LME Aluminium pricing and possibly longer shipping times from East Asia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In Asia, Swire Pacific, a bottler for Coca-Cola across the region, has also warned that higher aluminium costs could, in turn, raise the cost of canned beverages. Swire noted that initially, these aluminium costs will be absorbed by bottlers but over time, if the crisis continues, it may lead to repricing of beverages sold in aluminium cans. The metal packaging industry remains particularly sensitive to changes in raw material pricing. Stakeholders across the supply chain will look to manage costs while diversifying procurement strategies accordingly. Some reports also suggest that Coca-Cola is considering higher use of plastic bottles for their drinks in certain regions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In late March, the Brewers Association of India (BAI) told the media that they are dealing with rising expenses and would soon need to raise the price of beer in the country. Cost inflation has impacted all beverage packaging segments, such as glass bottles, aluminium cans and the cardboard cartons in which they are transported. If the challenges with natural gas and aluminium supply do not change soon, BAI indicated that several beer suppliers could issue force majeure notices to their distributors and end consumers. India also has some states where the prices of alcoholic beverages are fixed by the government. In such cases, when it no longer seems profitable for suppliers, they may completely stop production until the issue is resolved. The BAI represents brewers like United Breweries, AB InBev and Carlsberg, which control about 85 per cent of India\u2019s beer supply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Automotive Industry<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\nJapan is one of the largest automotive manufacturers in the world, with the segment accounting for around 20 per cent of the country\u2019s manufacturing GDP. As Japan does not produce its own primary aluminium, it must import large quantities to ensure smooth production for various industries. Imports from the UAE, amounting to 400,307 tonnes in 2025, accounted for 18.8 per cent of total primary aluminium imports at 2.12 million tonnes. As this supplier is no longer viable, reports suggest that Japan is now looking to import material from Russia. Interestingly, Russia only accounted for 3 per cent of Japan\u2019s primary aluminium imports at 67,808mt in 2025. These claims have aligned with a statement from Koji Sato, chief executive officer at Toyota, who told the media that the automotive industry is looking to diversify supply away from the Middle East, which it relied on so heavily. As of today, the industry is estimating that it may have to curtail or shut down production of cars within four months if the situation persists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Toyota is also seeing disruptions from a demand perspective. In terms of demand, or ability to serve its customers in the Middle East, the company announced that it would produce 40,000 fewer units headed to countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, in which it holds about a 17 per cent domestic market share. These units consist of SUVs like the Land Cruiser and commercial vehicles as well. As for supply, it is known that the UAE is one of the largest suppliers of aluminium to Japan, accounting for 10 per cent market share. Similar disruptions have been heard at Nissan and South Korea\u2019s Hyundai.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In India, the automotive industry uses liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for several manufacturing processes like painting, forging of aluminium parts and other furnaces. The recent lack of LPG imports and availability within the country has impacted production at both automotive manufacturers and component suppliers. Moreover, the lack of steel and aluminium raw materials is choking supply chains. The larger issue at hand is that the industry is gradually recovering from other hits to the supply chain, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the conflict in Ukraine and the tariffs imposed by the US government. Despite all of this, demand for ADC12, an important secondary aluminium diecasting grade used for engine parts, remains strong. Prices recently crossed USD 3,220 per tonne from around USD 2,685 per tonne a month ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As demand for ADC12 remains firm, many aluminium recyclers in India scramble for scrap as domestic collection has dried up and India no longer has access to the Middle East. As a result, prices have increased considerably. Recent prices for Zorba 95\/2 increased by USD 200 per tonne to USD 2,550 per tonne on a CFR (cost and freight) India basis. Recyclers remain concerned that they may not be able to secure material in time, considering the disruption to shipping routes across the world. This makes them increasingly reliant on US West Coast suppliers for material, having to accept higher prices in the short term. In Europe, automotive buyers have specific long term exposure to the Middle East as they have stringent standards and it could take up to 18 months to bring in new suppliers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Aerospace Industry<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\nGlobal commercial aerospace is a large consumer of aluminium components, and hence very dependent on the availability of primary aluminium. The industry is largely a duopoly, with Airbus and Boeing dominating the industry. In recent years, Airbus, a European manufacturer with operations in France, Germany and Spain, has emerged as the leader. However, Europe remains dependent on the Middle East for its primary aluminium supply. In 2025, the region imported 5.7 million tonnes of aluminum, of which 454,268 tonnes or 8 per cent came from the UAE. This reflects a dependence on imports, while Canada and Norway are the main suppliers. A shortage of aluminium availability could slow down production of important aircraft components such as the fuselage, wings and other large parts. Airbus also has several parts suppliers in the Middle East, which could further slow down a fragile aerospace supply chain, which has seen several issues since the COVID-19 pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, US manufacturer Boeing has also reported that the Middle East crisis could further delay its production schedules. Media reports indicate that the company has reached out to its suppliers in the Middle East to determine the expected delay period for part shipments to main assembly lines in the US. Although the Middle East is not a Boeing supply hub, companies like Strata in Abu Dhabi, UAE supply parts for the Boeing 787 Dreamliner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The cost of inflation due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz becomes clearly apparent for aerospace manufacturers as all its components, whether electrical or structural, as they see higher shipping prices. Moreover, large parts of an aircraft, like the fuselage and wings are made up of aluminium and titanium composites. Thus, any significant changes in the cost of primary aluminium can directly impact the cost of building airplanes, unless the suppliers of these components decide to absorb costs. However, this is unlikely after a certain threshold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A hidden consequence of the conflict is the potential for demand destruction for aircraft in the Middle East. In 2025, airlines from the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar were key customers for Boeing. If the regional sentiment weakens due to the crisis, aircraft manufacturers can expect to see weaker order books. Moreover, US President Donald Trump also reserves the right to invoke the Defense Production Act, which would force Boeing to produce military assets rather than commercial airliners. Similar supply chain issues impeding production can also be expected for Airbus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Building and construction<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\nIndia has a growing building and construction sector, which consumes about 13 per cent of the aluminium available in the domestic market. The country by itself produces nearly 4.2 million tonnes of aluminium. It remains a large exporter and importer of primary aluminium as pricing and quality decide the flow of material. India\u2019s primary aluminium imports reached 449,518 tonnes in 2025, of which 30 per cent or 133,196 tonnes came from the Middle East. The building and construction (B&C) sector in India uses aluminium extrusions that are produced using liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for reheating billets. The raw material is then extruded into aluminium profiles. Supply challenges with both aluminium billets and LPG pose serious threats to the domestic B&C industry in India.<\/p>\n\n\n
Japan is one of the largest automotive manufacturers in the world, with the segment accounting for around 20 per cent of the country\u2019s manufacturing GDP. As Japan does not produce its own primary aluminium, it must import large quantities to ensure smooth production for various industries. Imports from the UAE, amounting to 400,307 tonnes in 2025, accounted for 18.8 per cent of total primary aluminium imports at 2.12 million tonnes. As this supplier is no longer viable, reports suggest that Japan is now looking to import material from Russia. Interestingly, Russia only accounted for 3 per cent of Japan\u2019s primary aluminium imports at 67,808mt in 2025. These claims have aligned with a statement from Koji Sato, chief executive officer at Toyota, who told the media that the automotive industry is looking to diversify supply away from the Middle East, which it relied on so heavily. As of today, the industry is estimating that it may have to curtail or shut down production of cars within four months if the situation persists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Toyota is also seeing disruptions from a demand perspective. In terms of demand, or ability to serve its customers in the Middle East, the company announced that it would produce 40,000 fewer units headed to countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, in which it holds about a 17 per cent domestic market share. These units consist of SUVs like the Land Cruiser and commercial vehicles as well. As for supply, it is known that the UAE is one of the largest suppliers of aluminium to Japan, accounting for 10 per cent market share. Similar disruptions have been heard at Nissan and South Korea\u2019s Hyundai.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In India, the automotive industry uses liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for several manufacturing processes like painting, forging of aluminium parts and other furnaces. The recent lack of LPG imports and availability within the country has impacted production at both automotive manufacturers and component suppliers. Moreover, the lack of steel and aluminium raw materials is choking supply chains. The larger issue at hand is that the industry is gradually recovering from other hits to the supply chain, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the conflict in Ukraine and the tariffs imposed by the US government. Despite all of this, demand for ADC12, an important secondary aluminium diecasting grade used for engine parts, remains strong. Prices recently crossed USD 3,220 per tonne from around USD 2,685 per tonne a month ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As demand for ADC12 remains firm, many aluminium recyclers in India scramble for scrap as domestic collection has dried up and India no longer has access to the Middle East. As a result, prices have increased considerably. Recent prices for Zorba 95\/2 increased by USD 200 per tonne to USD 2,550 per tonne on a CFR (cost and freight) India basis. Recyclers remain concerned that they may not be able to secure material in time, considering the disruption to shipping routes across the world. This makes them increasingly reliant on US West Coast suppliers for material, having to accept higher prices in the short term. In Europe, automotive buyers have specific long term exposure to the Middle East as they have stringent standards and it could take up to 18 months to bring in new suppliers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Aerospace Industry<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\nGlobal commercial aerospace is a large consumer of aluminium components, and hence very dependent on the availability of primary aluminium. The industry is largely a duopoly, with Airbus and Boeing dominating the industry. In recent years, Airbus, a European manufacturer with operations in France, Germany and Spain, has emerged as the leader. However, Europe remains dependent on the Middle East for its primary aluminium supply. In 2025, the region imported 5.7 million tonnes of aluminum, of which 454,268 tonnes or 8 per cent came from the UAE. This reflects a dependence on imports, while Canada and Norway are the main suppliers. A shortage of aluminium availability could slow down production of important aircraft components such as the fuselage, wings and other large parts. Airbus also has several parts suppliers in the Middle East, which could further slow down a fragile aerospace supply chain, which has seen several issues since the COVID-19 pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, US manufacturer Boeing has also reported that the Middle East crisis could further delay its production schedules. Media reports indicate that the company has reached out to its suppliers in the Middle East to determine the expected delay period for part shipments to main assembly lines in the US. Although the Middle East is not a Boeing supply hub, companies like Strata in Abu Dhabi, UAE supply parts for the Boeing 787 Dreamliner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The cost of inflation due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz becomes clearly apparent for aerospace manufacturers as all its components, whether electrical or structural, as they see higher shipping prices. Moreover, large parts of an aircraft, like the fuselage and wings are made up of aluminium and titanium composites. Thus, any significant changes in the cost of primary aluminium can directly impact the cost of building airplanes, unless the suppliers of these components decide to absorb costs. However, this is unlikely after a certain threshold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A hidden consequence of the conflict is the potential for demand destruction for aircraft in the Middle East. In 2025, airlines from the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar were key customers for Boeing. If the regional sentiment weakens due to the crisis, aircraft manufacturers can expect to see weaker order books. Moreover, US President Donald Trump also reserves the right to invoke the Defense Production Act, which would force Boeing to produce military assets rather than commercial airliners. Similar supply chain issues impeding production can also be expected for Airbus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Building and construction<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\nIndia has a growing building and construction sector, which consumes about 13 per cent of the aluminium available in the domestic market. The country by itself produces nearly 4.2 million tonnes of aluminium. It remains a large exporter and importer of primary aluminium as pricing and quality decide the flow of material. India\u2019s primary aluminium imports reached 449,518 tonnes in 2025, of which 30 per cent or 133,196 tonnes came from the Middle East. The building and construction (B&C) sector in India uses aluminium extrusions that are produced using liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for reheating billets. The raw material is then extruded into aluminium profiles. Supply challenges with both aluminium billets and LPG pose serious threats to the domestic B&C industry in India.<\/p>\n\n\n
India has a growing building and construction sector, which consumes about 13 per cent of the aluminium available in the domestic market. The country by itself produces nearly 4.2 million tonnes of aluminium. It remains a large exporter and importer of primary aluminium as pricing and quality decide the flow of material. India\u2019s primary aluminium imports reached 449,518 tonnes in 2025, of which 30 per cent or 133,196 tonnes came from the Middle East. The building and construction (B&C) sector in India uses aluminium extrusions that are produced using liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for reheating billets. The raw material is then extruded into aluminium profiles. Supply challenges with both aluminium billets and LPG pose serious threats to the domestic B&C industry in India.<\/p>\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.alcircle.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Aluminum-extrusions.jpg\")
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